ARF vs Noob SA4130: Final battle :D (some pics)

[rolexwatchfan]

I already have 2 NOOB Daytonas SA4130 and I agree with the observations and comparisons that have been said here and in many other threads; they are not perfect, and so are the ARF Daytonas. Let's face it, those who are in these forums are no longer average rep buyers, but are seeking the best rep for the money. I used to be an average rep buyer until last month, when I started reading rep watch forums Anyway, my initial plan was to collect every single model of the NOOB Daytona (approx 8 models from Noob) because I was blown away by the clone movement when I opened my first one. But after realizing the aesthetic "flaws" of the NOOB vs Gen, and even the ARF shortfalls, I have decided NOT TO BUY another Daytona until such time that NOOB or ARF gets it right. Even if they get it to 95% Gen like OOB I am ready to pay $1000 for a Daytona with a fully functioning chronograph. I'm sure many rep aficionados will be willing and ready to pay that much, considering some are even spending more now to Franken their Daytonas to be Gen like. Let it be a message to NOOB & ARF factories; WE ARE READY TO BUY AND PAY MORE THAN $600 BUT GET THE DAYTONAS RIGHT. BUT UNTIL THEN, I WON'T BUY ANOTHER ONE.

Beware what you wish for. Noob will keep trickling "updates" for top dollar price increase because they can (no competition). I've already noticed $50-$60 raise in price when new batches are introduced with no updates. What if Noob will release 98% gen like V10 for $3K? Would you buy it then?

 

[Bezelover]

Beware what you wish for. Noob will keep trickling "updates" for top dollar price increase because they can (no competition). I've already noticed $50-$60 raise in price when new batches are introduced with no updates. What if Noob will release 98% gen like V10 for $3K? Would you buy it then?

rolexwatchfan That's a good question. 98% gen like is pretty damn high for a rep, so I will probably pay up to US$2K for it (consider that used Daytonas are selling for $20k)
Profit drives all businesses, so get it on NOOB & ARF, give what buyers want and you'll get our money for it.

 

[rolexwatchfan]

rolexwatchfan That's a good question. 98% gen like is pretty damn high for a rep, so I will probably pay up to US$2K for it (consider that used Daytonas are selling for $20k)
Profit drives all businesses, so get it on NOOB & ARF, give what buyers want and you'll get our money for it.

See that is the point, not $2K but $3K Noob will dictate sales point of their product, not the consumers. Once the factory will breach the slippery slope of "being too close to GEN" the Chinese Rolex affiliates will come into play so the price will drastically increase. It's a very dangerous market zone from the factory perspective.

 

[Bezelover]

See that is the point, not $2K but $3K Noob will dictate sales point of their product, not the consumers. Once the factory will breach the slippery slope of "being too close to GEN" the Chinese Rolex affiliates will come into play so the price will drastically increase. It's a very dangerous market zone from the factory perspective.

Good point. Maybe the game for these factories when it comes to Rolex, and ONLY Rolex, is to only get it to 80%-85% gen like so the ADs in the mainland will be "at bay" so to speak. If you refer to the SUPER REPS LIST of any forum, there are very few Rolex models that made it up till today! Think about it, this replica industry has been here for decades, specially for Rolex, the most copied watch, but factories seem unable to bring it to 90% level in spite of modern day manufacturing technologies at their disposal. Like you said, they are probably avoiding "the dangerous market zone". But htey've come very far, let's credit them for that, specially for this year's releases. They've pushed the envelope much further than before, now let's wait and see how much further they're willing to take it for our money...

 

[rolexwatchfan]

Good point. Maybe the game for these factories when it comes to Rolex, and ONLY Rolex, is to only get it to 80%-85% gen like so the ADs in the mainland will be "at bay" so to speak. If you refer to the SUPER REPS LIST of any forum, there are very few Rolex models that made it up till today! Think about it, this replica industry has been here for decades, specially for Rolex, the most copied watch, but factories seem unable to bring it to 90% level in spite of modern day manufacturing technologies at their disposal. Like you said, they are probably avoiding "the dangerous market zone". But htey've come very far, let's credit them for that, specially for this year's releases. They've pushed the envelope much further than before, now let's wait and see how much further they're willing to take it for our money...

I totally agree.

 

[timnic54]

It needs to be said also that the critical standards applied to Reps are proportional to their popularity. Example Rolex and Panerai.

These watches are so universaly popular that people even know the incremental variations in different years. If we applied the same critical standards to Rolex reps as we do to others we may be able to accept that the standard is really extremely high in such watches as the Noob 116500 4130, the ARF Sd 43, the JF 114300 , noob Yachtmaster Rhodium etc

 

[preppyr6]

So what are the odds ARF will just clone noobs SA4130? They could probably double their price if they did...and it would still be a good deal all things considered

 

[timnic54]

So what are the odds ARF will just clone noobs SA4130? They could probably double their price if they did...and it would still be a good deal all things considered

That's not going to happen.

 

[preppyr6]

So what are the odds ARF will just clone noobs SA4130? They could probably double their price if they did...and it would still be a good deal all things considered

Curious as to why though? Obviously its not a matter of getting ahold of the IP...ARF could probably literally walk across the street and pick up a few SA4130s to tinker around with (the irony would be off the charts if Noob tried to prevent other factories from copying their 4130 copy).

So is it the economic factors? Is the sunk cost in developing their own 4130 clone prohibitively costly? I wonder if they have access to the same resources as Noob (factory/machinery/raw materials). Or from a market segment perspective, does it just make sense to be the guys "with the awesome looking non-chrono function Daytona"?

You'll have to excuse the likely-obvious questions, I'm just curious from market competition perspective what ARFs options are. Obviously we are the ridiculously-idiosyncratic buyers that factories probably love to crap on and dont want as their core market (too demanding and too small a market segment), BUT...its obvious as we see updated versions and new releases that the factories have to keep improving their products...even for the casual buyers.

 

[timnic54]

The TD based/ forum based market is a tiny part of the rep market. The domestic Chinese market is growing and has grown exponentially. There are also other major markets not approached through fora.
For Noob's own reasoning they have seen fit to tool up and make all the parts from a stripped down 4130. they have invested in the manpower and facilities to assemble it. For ARF to repeat the process at this stage would be suicidal. They would be better of putting the work into something else.

I also ( though mostly retired and consulting now) work in an industry which would appear to be forum lead in many ways.
There is a very visible ( to those in the industry) forum presence and set of preferences . The Forum people believe themselves to be leading changes in the market. But the products which sell in huge quantities are not even considered to be valid, by the forum groups. However they sell in massively higher quantities.

When I visit trading markets like the watch trade market in Guangzhou, it is evident that the huge quantities being bought by visiting traders are very much low end. It is difficult even to find watches of the quality we discuss.

The whole counterfeit watch market is huge. Higher end reps form a very small part of it. Even higher end reps for OCD forum members like us are an even smaller part of that part.

I am sure Noob, ARF and the like are aware of people like us. I am also sure they use us to improve their products. I am equally sure they would survive perfectly well without us. Furthermore I am sure they know this well.

 

[slaughterer62]

"I am also sure they use us to improve their products." One example among many: JF actually just scanned a datewheel print from a forum member and used it in their updated Offshore launch. This whole forum is like a Colosseum of raging OCD rep gladiators from which the factory design/marketing teams picks the best ideas and execute them.
W.r.t. to the SA4130: Noob has a lock-up agreement with the movement factory for the exclusive right to use this movement for a set time. If the movement factory sells to ARF, then a turf war will break loose, even if a contract case cannot reach the courts for obvious reasons. Noob has plenty of ways to protect its hard-won cartel position, the position it has best operated in, historically. The SA4130 is Noob's turnaround ticket, Noob is going to exploit it to the max: I am surprised Noob has not yet wheeled out the V1, V2, V3 labelling for their Daytonas, but it is sure to come soon, even if the VX system is largely a TD fiction.
"Obviously we are the ridiculously-idiosyncratic buyers that factories probably love to crap on and dont want as their core market (too demanding and too small a market segment)": only the TDs are at the front line of the absolutely frustrating battle with OCD buyers--and of course anybody who undertakes to repair defective merchandise or take it to a higher level. The factories use the TDs as a buffer to achieve freedom from consumer complaints, after-sale service, warranty execution, etc. If the TDs did not exist, the factories would have to invent them, because the TDs allow the factories to save tremendous costs in CRM. Looking at the small premium the TDs collect for this service, one really has to be amazed that the TDs continue with such high volume: look at all of the ridiculous micro-targettign macro-abusive reasons OCD members here reject QC, and the amount of pain that inflicts on a TD operation... or the complete risk that modern logistics creates when it is trying to profit from trade barriers and IP patent trolling...

 

[mbrute]

"Noob has a lock-up agreement with the movement factory for the exclusive right to use this movement for a set time. If the movement factory sells to ARF, then a turf war will break loose, even if a contract case cannot reach the courts for obvious reasons. Noob has plenty of ways to protect its hard-won cartel position, the position it has best operated in, historically.

Curious to know what Noob can do to punish the movement factory. I imagine that switching to a different factory is out of the question, since only one factory has the capability to make the SA4130 (I think). The movement factory also holds the 4130 production over Noob, so Noob can't offset other movement purchases to other factories. If Noob did, the movement factory would stop producing the 4130 and that's a lose lose. I guess it's prob not too hard to transfer production methods to another movement factory, so maybe Noob has an advantage there.

Maybe the good ol "disappearing" trick is still a viable deterrent in the rep game.

 

[Bezelover]

The TD based/ forum based market is a tiny part of the rep market. The domestic Chinese market is growing and has grown exponentially. There are also other major markets not approached through fora.
For Noob's own reasoning they have seen fit to tool up and make all the parts from a stripped down 4130. they have invested in the manpower and facilities to assemble it. For ARF to repeat the process at this stage would be suicidal. They would be better of putting the work into something else.

I also ( though mostly retired and consulting now) work in an industry which would appear to be forum lead in many ways.
There is a very visible ( to those in the industry) forum presence and set of preferences . The Forum people believe themselves to be leading changes in the market. But the products which sell in huge quantities are not even considered to be valid, by the forum groups. However they sell in massively higher quantities.

When I visit trading markets like the watch trade market in Guangzhou, it is evident that the huge quantities being bought by visiting traders are very much low end. It is difficult even to find watches of the quality we discuss.

The whole counterfeit watch market is huge. Higher end reps form a very small part of it. Even higher end reps for OCD forum members like us are an even smaller part of that part.

I am sure Noob, ARF and the like are aware of people like us. I am also sure they use us to improve their products. I am equally sure they would survive perfectly well without us. Furthermore I am sure they know this well.

Very enlightening, thanks for this. You are spot on about a large domestic Chinese market. That local market has also a large number of OCD buyers. There are some members here from China who have been showing off their Franken Daytonas already, their the ones responsible for causing the prices of Gen crystal, dials and bezels to skyrocket of late, and that member posted pictures from their local group. Most of them stick to Chinese language forums. Even in YouTube, the rep videos for the latest factory releases are in Chinese, for Chinese viewers! They don't care about us ???? ????
The silver lining in this is that the local demand only spurs the further growth for super Replicas, and whether or not it eventually overtakes the global super rep demand is all for speculation, but regardless, these factories will take note of their buyer's micro requirements, even only those from the Chinese OCD buyers

 

[timbui]

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[timbui]

My new Daytona has arrived. Can you guess the factory?

1. 116500LN

2. 116520

 

[ssouthall6]

The first one is definitely noob.

Second one probably ARF although I can't really see it well as it seems to blur when I try and zoom in. It definitely isn't noob sa4130

 

[timbui]

More pics for your enjoyment. 2 different watches from different factories.

 

[m5smg2]

More pics for your enjoyment. 2 different watches from different factories.

Here the 116500 is ARF. The 116520 is NOOB.

 

[timbui]

My new Daytona has arrived. Can you guess the factory?

1. 116500LN

2. 116520

1. 116500 is Noob
2. 116520 is gen

 

[timbui]

More pics for your enjoyment. 2 different watches from different factories.

116500 is ARF
116520 is gen