Well you were 100% correct. The watch just arrived and its gorgeous (126519LN).
No tariffs required. I don't understand why, but im okay with it!
Probably because it was declared as “stuff” or “parts” or “toys” with a very low value, and the proportionally very low tariff was paid by the TD at shipping (and the package was not inspected because inspecting every item is impossible, and without the de minimis exception, so much has to run through the system that maybe fewer watches will end up getting caught).
Andiot, for example, is clear tariffs are included in the price and shipping, and they will be responsible for seizures.