I give it 50/50. I got QC, gave approval then 2 days later got tracking info. Business as usual. The only issue i see is the very late tracking info updates. Again only a label made. But my experience with China tracking (30-40 watches over 5 years) is sometimes they track real time step by step but most of the time the info is completely unreliable and the watch just shows up one day-after i kinda forget. We’ll see, I’ve learned to enjoy the hunt more then most of the products. But i will admit i do have high hopes for this specific watch. It’s my grail and if i need to buy again, I’ll do it. It’ll make it that much more fun