Swiss watch industry Crisis ? Rep super clone movements ?

[Flyingman]

There are more than enough people out there with enough money to stay entirely within the AD/Genuine ecosystem and who would never even consider a rep. So IMHO, the rep industry, even with its visual accuracy and improvements to movements, will never have any noticeable impact on the Swiss watch industry monopoly. And that's all the gen manufacturers need. They don't need the secondary/secondhand market - which is where buyers will fall victim to watches that may have been contaminated with rep parts.

Have you tried asking an AD if you could please buy a Rolex sports watch? There's way, way more demand for gens through the authorised outlets than there is supply.

The AD'S are just playing a marketing game, there is plenty of supply, there's always have been, covid created a buble hype..
The reps are creating a serious " threat " for the Swiss watch industry ,as well as the Swiss watch tool industry, China is selling watchmaking tools on par with the Swiss ( replicas of Swiss tools) at one tenth of the price , and of course the smart watch industry is dominating the watch market on top of that .

 

[Flyingman]

Without gen, there is no rep.

Replicas are COPIES.

It's easy to copy someone's homework, it's not easy to do the homework yourself.

No offense to the Chinese but they're not exactly the best at making their own watches, outside of Atelier Wen.

Look at San Martin and every single Chinese watch brand. I mean some of their original designs were fairly horrendous to be honest.

While I don't doubt the prowess of the Chinese in making quality movements, I'm not a watch maker, my watch maker tells me the movements are really good, but not quite "Rolex" good, aka the tolerances can be dodgy still. He tells me that Rolex movements, the parts just "fall into place" while the replicas need some fidgeting and moving around to fit in some times.

Name me one original Chinese movement. The SL-4801 is a 4130 rip off. The PT5000 is a A2824 clone. The Venus75 was bought from the Swiss. Most chinese movements are still low grade.

When the Chinese can originally make a whole new movement with unique functions, (on my mind I always think of Christopher Ward's Bel Canto), then we have a challenge to swiss watch making.

The bel canto is produced and manufactured in China,
And the Chinese, ( seagull to be specific) have produced a new movement with a minute repeater. Unfortunately not widely available.
There is nothing " new" or groundbreaking " from the Swiss eather... we are talking about watch movements that haven't really changed in the last 200 years or so ...still the same complications by everyone , specially the Swiss...

 

[Flyingman]

Rolex: here's why the luxury brand is expanding its production and building three new factories

Could this be a declaration of war on the gray market, which sees watches being exchanged through distribution channels that are not necessarily authorized by the watchmaker?

Rolex is expanding to meet the needs of its customers. This is why the luxury company must build three new factories. This is notably a large factory which, however, will not be ready for the launch of production for several years. It was therefore necessary to find an intermediate solution.

Rolex watches: a rare commodity
In recent years, watch enthusiasts have had to wait for long delays, especially at Rolex. Worldwide, it has become increasingly difficult to get a model from the famous luxury brand at the official price, especially for new customers. This of course worked in favor of the so-called gray market. But the Swiss manufacturer has now found a way that should satisfy both customers and approved jewelers.

Rolex expands production
According to media reports, the construction of a new Rolex factory is planned in the commune of Bulle, in the French-speaking part of the canton of Friborg in Switzerland, as a solution to the current supply shortage. To do this, the company purchased land with an area of approximately 10 hectares. Enough space to accommodate 2,000 new employees who should be hired there. If all goes well, production on site could begin in 2029.

To wait, Rolex found an intermediate solution with temporary factories. One will be built this year in Romont and the other will be in Villaz-Saint-Pierre, municipalities both located in the canton of Fribourg, precisely in the Glâne district. In the first, production should start in 2025, in the second, from 2024. The third site in Bulle will serve as a recruitment center. “The new Bulle production site, like the three temporary facilities, will allow Rolex to increase its production capacities, support its growth and meet ever-increasing demand,” the company said. 'business.

SOURCE: https://www.gqmagazine.fr/article/r...roduction-et-construit-trois-nouvelles-usines

Creating a fictional hype....

 

[Flyingman]

My point is this :

In my opinion the biggest issue people have with reps is knowledge and misconception .

And by that I mean most people think :
If I spend 5-600 usd on a super clone rep , and have it on my wrist will other people see that it's a fake ?
Definitely no ... not even watchmakers or AD 's .

The vast majority of people bying reps and gen for that matter are clueless of what a movement is,how it works or put together .
What makes it " beat " what makes it reliable, what makes it stop and why it would stop.
All and I mean ALL movements including cheap and high end movements will eventually stop working if left to there own destiny.
The conception of most people is : rep= cheap = bad quality = watch will stop working after 1 or 2 years if that ..= 5-600 usd down the drain ....
NOT TRUE !!!

what I'm saying is if you buy a decent rep and look after it ( service it right away and keep doing that every 7-8 years ) it will last as long as any gen.

What I'm saying is that a rep super clone Rolex movement is really really really hard to tell apart from a gen specially if the balance and a few bridges have been swapped out for generic or gen parts.
Reliability is on par with gen movements let alone longevity. As to the comments on this thread from a other member from his watchmaker regarding gen rolex movement " just falling into to place " but not so from rep movements ...
What exactly is falling into to place ? A pivot into a jewel hole ? A driving train Bridge onto a stud and pivot ? Rep movements fall equally and as easy into place as gen movements, if something is not " sitting correctly " it will break and or the performance will be significantly affected or will not "tik" at all ...
Movements are NOT V12 multi electronic engines .... the tech is 200 plus years old for ALL movements .... gen or rep ...

The more apparent this is to the general public , the bigger the problem for the Swiss watch industry.
The rep scene and sales have exploded in the last few years , outnumbering by far the gen sales ..

Like I said wait for it ... the first crisis is already happening and it's with the Swiss watchmaking tool industry.

 

[gym chan]

My point is that you can most likely pass a rep movement for a gen , and that the reps will eventually out sale the gen sooner that later...just because of exactly what you wrote : the vast majority of people just care about the outside, that the status symbol is there ..and not horology in general.

Do you really believe that a gen rolex movement performs " better " than a well service rep movement ?

The crisis is coming.. wait for it... just like the bubble burst regarding gen prices post covid ...

Gen movement does perform better, simply because more resources were spent on QC'ing and tolerances. From my time spent on this forum, majority of Rolex clone movements suffer from large differences in positional accuracy until gen balances are dropped in.

 

[Flyingman]

Gen movement does perform better, simply because more resources were spent on QC'ing and tolerances. From my time spent on this forum, majority of Rolex clone movements suffer from large differences in positional accuracy until gen balances are dropped in.

Gen balance... is the Key Word as you said I did mentioned the balance complete a few times in previous threads .. Positional accuracy is all about the balance complete.
Swap the balance with a gen on a true clone movement and you get equivalent performance ... not that complicated or high end horology at all. But we can try to justify a gen 10000 usd movement all day .. saying it so " special " it's so " refined " ect ect .. no its not .. it's actually quite a simple movement that is mass produced by the same machines that produce other mass produced movements like ETA , Selita , Seagull, Seiko ect ect ...But Rolex did launch the oyster case "Sub" first... or did they really? That is a other topic all together....

 

[Flyingman]

This is true, Im not so sure there is a crisis, part of owning the gen is that you know you bought it at that premium either earned or inherited. Many have more than enough cash to purchase the sought after model and litterally drop their trousers and pay more than double the price just to have something that others struggle to get their hands on or like myself just refuse to be held to ransom just because I cant get it at retail.
The same is said of cars now, the new Range Rover Sport is an example, all order allocations were gone long before it had even launched and they put the price up to add exclusivity and then contacted good customers to ad some prestige and sold the lot! As soon as some were delivered they were up for sale with a 40K markup! There were also people prepared to pay that!

Im sure reps do already break the sales figures over their gen counterparts but remeber there are lots of different factories all making the same products.
Rolex has always been and will always be a know brand and a status symbol to many, but for some of us we just like the items for ourselves.
I would bet that most of the BLRO's and Panda Daytonas you see out in the wild are rep's and probably quite a few not very good ones as most people dont really know the difference and think that the old ticking second hand is still a thing!

Also factor in all the Pagani homages for sale on Amazon unless sat very close these would be hard to tell they are not a Rolex across a room, and those exact watches sell for £100 ish max and are essentially a rep by all accounts but with no trade engraving or logos from the model they are copying so there is not infringment. (I'm sure there is but Rolex dont care as it doenst say their name).
The Pagani BLRO is pretty well made and if you swapped the dial for a Rolex branded one it would be hard to tell unless looking inside or taking the bracelet off. Its just the factories making use of their excess production but also as a way of hiding the rep side of the business as its actually making legtimate watches now!

Pagani are not stealing customers from Rolex at all, someone who spends £100 on a watch is unlikely to spend £10K on one or only buys the £100 one because they can get hold of a £10K one.

There is also the prestigue of stiing in an AD and having them suck up to you with some fresh coffee or Proseco when buying gen or even picking it up from a service, neither of which you get when order from a TD or through M2M on here. (no offence to the TD's or good peops on here).

The gen market is begining to level out a bit but is still highly priced. I remember seeing 0% Finance deals and buy on deposit deals in out local ad 25 years ago when they were still priced much hgher than peoples salaries. The only difference today is getting finance and instant gratification as is the way fo the work (we must all have it now! dont save and buy, borrow and pay off!)

There will be a lot of dealers non AD dropping prices of their stock as the market adjusts back down. which may trigger a bit of a sell off, this might make the dealer pricing only a little over the gen price but where the dealers actually have stock.

With watches being a target for stree muggings much more, there may be many more reps being sold alongside their gen counter parts so the wearer can still go out an about with that coveted look yet be happy to just hand it over if ever challenged whilst the gen one that is holding its value or increasing is sat safely in safe or deposit box somewhere, criminal that its not being worn I know.

High quality reps as often a good idea to get a feel for the watch and if you like, how does it wear, is it too flash, etc.... prior to buying a gen where each trade will lose far more than the rep will cost. I have done this in the past and will do again.

I dont think Rolex really care about the rep market as much as we think as it doesnt really effect their customer base. If you move in the circles of people who buy gen then you might get away with wearing a rep but most wont, as they can afford the geninune article so will just but buy it. A guy who can afford a 3.5 mill Sunseeker is unlikely to be so tight or stapped he would need to look at the rep market.

Also the rep market is actually quite hard work, knowing which one is best and all the tech knowledge needed to avoid buying a kipper!
I think its only really rep heads that are worried about hwo they look or if its ral or not where as most people just see a watch or see a flash watch and then move on, we all just want perfection but without the costs!

If Rolex did up production on sports models and cut back on the DJ's the dealers would have no choice but to lower prices, this doesnt really effect Rolex or it was a really clever move by them to shorten supply to drive up the second hand value market so they can then cash in on the used approved market!

Im sure they could increase production on sports but they must have an awful lot of people still wanting DJ's as that seems to be what nearly every AD has lots of!

Well written Terry

 

[TerryRobot]

Gen movement does perform better, simply because more resources were spent on QC'ing and tolerances. From my time spent on this forum, majority of Rolex clone movements suffer from large differences in positional accuracy until gen balances are dropped in.

Id guess that could also be said of the material quality also as cheaper movements will have softer metals is suspect, but it does depend on the movement type and in reality no one has really performed a long lasting bench test on like for likewith a gen.

There is also the fact that some service people might not be exposed to all that many rep movements and may remember the older versions that were built with far less skill.

I suppose thought waht Flying is saying is that if a few parts are swapped out that are known to be of lesser quality, with either gen or gen spec it should in theory work as a gen does.

There is also the point though that people who buy gens either keep them or chop them in for another gen if they fancy a change or just buy another if they are flush! But rep guys often dont keep them for very long either becuase a better version appears or chasing the next new model out. The cost to do so is a lot more wallet friendly and as the rep doesn cost all that much in the first place looking after it or just getting another one if it fails is easier and an excuse to indulge in the passion.

All that said some of us do keep them and i had a dig around the other day and found my old WM9 George Sub 16610 i got before i purchased a gen. That must of been years ago pretty sure around 2008 maybe 2009 and its still keeps great time and has never been serviced as i lost interest whne i got the gen.

The case and bracelet are still really good the onlt thing bad was the bezel insert lost the pip and as i tried to fit one the the little pippet i used for the glue bubbled and too much came out so the bezel didnt turn. (might at some point ressurect it) then it would be a vitnage 5 digit 16610 rep!

The value of peice is often going to depict the attitude and the cheaper it is the less its valued, if Rolex started knocking out £3K models they would be deemd entry models and the elite wouldnt be interest in them which is the route Tag chose as they have much larger market with the under 5k models.

Fact is wearing a rep vs a gen is different but only to rep heads, as your will alway question getting caught, just like when you used to sneek out for a crafty blunt when you were younger, the only difference is embarassment. If you where the gen your dont have to worry about that but on the flipside you do have to worry about damaging it, getting mugged and having your pants pulled down to get it serviced as that help to maintain its value also.

On the other hand though buying into the Roelx hype is in reality far too common and most who do, do so not becuase they really like the mechanics of them, its more to project an image to others, it used to be a well respected pat on th eback cause you can afford one and your earned it but not so much now. Most onlookers wont know if it the latest model anyway.

 

[Jackster]

1st things first, I’m embarrassed to say that I don’t know how to ‘tag’ or ‘link’ a members name in my post… technophobe… so if anyone can help that would be appreciated….. any way….
Flyingman (this is where I need the tag..)
What an awesome thread, I have enjoyed reading everyone’s comments very much and some very valid viewpoints have been discussed. Its discussions like this that make this place the best place to talk about this mad, ridiculous hobby of ours… (Jeez the wife keeps interrupting me, I’m losing the plot now…

 

[P..DR..D]

1st things first, I’m embarrassed to say that I don’t know how to ‘tag’ or ‘link’ a members name in my post… technophobe… so if anyone can help that would be appreciated….. any way….
Flyingman (this is where I need the tag..)
What an awesome thread, I have enjoyed reading everyone’s comments very much and some very valid viewpoints have been discussed. Its discussions like this that make this place the best place to talk about this mad, ridiculous hobby of ours… (Jeez the wife keeps interrupting me, I’m losing the plot now…

Add an @ before the username to tag

@Flyingman

 

[Jackster]

Oh dear, didn’t mean to post!

This thread and all the posts give me real reason to question my decisions.. I own Gen and rep and threads like this challenge me to as to what it is that I wish to aspire to or need or my need to impress?
I don’t believe I need to impress anymore but maybe once upon a time maybe I did.
I own a Gen because unlike a lot of comments here I actually do appreciate the inner workings of the watch and to me the quality of the movement inside that SS case is everything…
However, I also own a rep and the value of that is indescribable… it really does win hands down… but it’s NOT a Gen,
This is truly a conundrum.

Part of the rationale for owning a Gen is the investment.. a Rolex (supposedly) will always go up in value, so basically it’s a no brained to own, wear and enjoy a Gen watch, comfortably knowing that it will go up in value…

But what if it didn’t? What if it went down in value? Would I want it then?? No way…I’m not in the business of losing money!

So, where does that leave me?. Seriously, the reps now are so good, and has been mentioned converting them to near as near can be to Gen quality is so so close now the difference in price does seem a little extreme.

As I sit here admiring my $900 rep my Gen is at the shop getting a (at least $1100) service… you tell me where the value is?

I for one am a little conflicted and am not sure of the answer, but what I do know is if the arse fell out of the Gen market I’d be more than pissed off, as for Reps… well I can live with that!

 

[Jackster]

@PR..DR..D Thank You!

 

[Jackster]

That didn’t work did it?

Sorry I’m going to have to do this somewhere else… I’m so embarrassed God I feel old!

 

[Jackster]

@P..DR..D.

 

[Jackster]

Oh Shit.. I’ve completely ruined this thread, so sorry every one, feel like a real numpty…

 

[Feefo]

Oh Shit.. I’ve completely ruined this thread, so sorry every one, feel like a real numpty…

Don't feel bad. Look outside the window. You live in paradise.

 

[gym chan]

Oh dear, didn’t mean to post!

This thread and all the posts give me real reason to question my decisions.. I own Gen and rep and threads like this challenge me to as to what it is that I wish to aspire to or need or my need to impress?
I don’t believe I need to impress anymore but maybe once upon a time maybe I did.
I own a Gen because unlike a lot of comments here I actually do appreciate the inner workings of the watch and to me the quality of the movement inside that SS case is everything…
However, I also own a rep and the value of that is indescribable… it really does win hands down… but it’s NOT a Gen,
This is truly a conundrum.

Part of the rationale for owning a Gen is the investment.. a Rolex (supposedly) will always go up in value, so basically it’s a no brained to own, wear and enjoy a Gen watch, comfortably knowing that it will go up in value…

But what if it didn’t? What if it went down in value? Would I want it then?? No way…I’m not in the business of losing money!

So, where does that leave me?. Seriously, the reps now are so good, and has been mentioned converting them to near as near can be to Gen quality is so so close now the difference in price does seem a little extreme.

As I sit here admiring my $900 rep my Gen is at the shop getting a (at least $1100) service… you tell me where the value is?

I for one am a little conflicted and am not sure of the answer, but what I do know is if the arse fell out of the Gen market I’d be more than pissed off, as for Reps… well I can live with that!

Rolex service interval is 10 years, and any experienced watchmaker can service one for half the price of RSC. That's pretty good value to me.

 

[EM9]

Are we almost there? How much knowledge do you really need to differentiate a super clone 3235 with a original balance complete from a genuine 3235 or 4130 rolex movement ?

Almost none.

 

[Flyingman]

Almost none.

I think I did mentioned swapping the balance and a couple of bridges with a gen/or generic part on my main post .....if your picture implies the lack of regulation screws on the balance.

 

[Flyingman]

I think I did mentioned swapping the balance and a couple of bridges with a gen/or generic part on my main post .....if your picture implies the lack of regulation screws on the balance.

Could you differentiate a super clone movement with a gen balance (regulation screws ) and gen bridge with gen engraving ?