Should we anticipate delivery / customs issues w/ Trump in office?

[Alkay3]

Tariffs are not mainly designed to generate revenue but to protect economies. The cost of tariffs is always passed on to the consumer/client so the assertion that tariffs will "tax" anything but the consumers/companies of the country implementing them is laughable. When the use of tariffs leads to a trade war, the primary and immediate victims are always the consumers.

That being said, when correctly and rationally used tariffs are a good way to level the playing field. Sometimes, foreign made products benefit from a lower cost of labor, more lax regulatory frameworks or even subsidies that put locally made products at an unfair disadvantage and the best way to correct that is through tariffs. Also, sometimes there are economic activities that suffer from a lack of competitivity but that need to be protected because of their strategic importance. For example, a country may need to protect its agricultural production to avoid becoming dependent on foreign actors for its food supply. That's the reason why the biggest challenge in free trade agreements negotiation is always to agree on the goods that would be excluded from the scope of the FTA.

I personally think that the smartest way to use tariffs is not to impose them but to threaten with imposing them in order to negotiate.

Agree completely KGZ!

 

[Barnabas2000]

Tariffs will make sure all goods are inspected before coming into the US. Remeber USPS is a federal entity. If there is an order to hold and inspect all packages and collect tariffs on them, no matter DHL UPS USPS or Fedex it will be a PITA.

You think that they will really have the capacity to open and inspect all packages, even if they're small person to person shipments from China to the US? I'd suspect large, commercial imports of goods to companies would be the focus. Do tariffs necessarily equate to more scrutiny at ports of entry? Even with that heightened scrutiny, any thoughts on US buyers having a harder time than normal receiving reps?

What forum here would be the best to keep tabs on any troubles US buyers may be having? I'd like to buy my next piece in February after my TD gets a chance to see how things are going in the US. Or should I pull the trigger now sooner than later? Not sure how immediate increased inspection would unfold.

Thanks, all!

 

[Reaps]

You think that they will really have the capacity to open and inspect all packages, even if they're small person to person shipments from China to the US? I'd suspect large, commercial imports of goods to companies would be the focus. Do tariffs necessarily equate to more scrutiny at ports of entry? Even with that heightened scrutiny, any thoughts on US buyers having a harder time than normal receiving reps?

What forum here would be the best to keep tabs on any troubles US buyers may be having? I'd like to buy my next piece in February after my TD gets a chance to see how things are going in the US. Or should I pull the trigger now sooner than later? Not sure how immediate increased inspection would unfold.

Thanks, all!

You're applying logic. The Trump admin doesn't give a fuck if we have capacity or not. If there's a standing policy for USPS to inspect all packages from China, we don't give a fuck if it's small mail or commercial, collect all tariffs, they will follow it no matter how annoying it is.

 

[Barnabas2000]

You're applying logic. The Trump admin doesn't give a fuck if we have capacity or not. If there's a standing policy for USPS to inspect all packages from China, we don't give a fuck if it's small mail or commercial, collect all tariffs, they will follow it no matter how annoying it is.

I trust you, and yes, logic goes out the window with certain mandates. Curious where you read or heard this if you have a source. Certainly not questioning you, would just like to read more on exactly what's happening re: this.

 

[Ibcarpro]

I will add that using Fedex/UPS etc on any goods coming into Canada, where I am, pretty much guarantees customs duties. I always have stuff i buy online shipped local/gov't mail system to avoid this. If a vendor gives forces you to use FedUp/UPiss I'll bypass that vendor and look elsewhere.

These tariffs, if they happen, are idiotic and will 100% make things from Canada more expensive for Americans, FWIW. Tariff = tax and tax paid by the consumer, not the initial seller.

Your assumption is that the US will continue to import from canada rather than from other sources, or in the case of automotive production, that it will move it back here… equal Trade that’s fair for all parties is what’s needed.

 

[Reaps]

It's just my speculation.

My advice regarding replicas : no need to rush or panic. You can always buy M2M within the country if it actually does happen.

 

[CutePinkKitty]

Even if things get tighter , they can't stop it. That's the gist of it.

As far as USA manufacturing in house and or getting it from other countries like they've always had, it can't be stopped.

USA has a very expensive labor, she can't manufacture a $1 mug and profit.
USA is meant to manufacture high end more expensive products that's her niche.
CHeap stuff has to come from other countries. We all have our own niches.

Either way.... I'm not worried about customs.

Here's an example.......... the feds were proud to bust 7-8 figures in drugs and they posture it on the news.
Reality it most aren't caught =\

 

[Barnabas2000]

It's just my speculation.

My advice regarding replicas : no need to rush or panic. You can always buy M2M within the country if it actually does happen.

I'm already on it for buying M2M within the country. Already looking for a VSF or Clean 126610LV Submariner "Starbucks". Just trying to get a handle on the solid US-based dealers / TDs here in the US for the high-end reps. Perusing the forums and checking out the TD section [though many non-China-based TDs are EU or UK-based, I'm finding.]

 

[Cubatobaco]

Tariffs are not mainly designed to generate revenue but to protect economies. The cost of tariffs is always passed on to the consumer/client so the assertion that tariffs will "tax" anything but the consumers/companies of the country implementing them is laughable. When the use of tariffs leads to a trade war, the primary and immediate victims are always the consumers.

That being said, when correctly and rationally used tariffs are a good way to level the playing field. Sometimes, foreign made products benefit from a lower cost of labor, more lax regulatory frameworks or even subsidies that put locally made products at an unfair disadvantage and the best way to correct that is through tariffs. Also, sometimes there are economic activities that suffer from a lack of competitivity but that need to be protected because of their strategic importance. For example, a country may need to protect its agricultural production to avoid becoming dependent on foreign actors for its food supply. That's the reason why the biggest challenge in free trade agreements negotiation is always to agree on the goods that would be excluded from the scope of the FTA.

I personally think that the smartest way to use tariffs is not to impose them but to threaten with imposing them in order to negotiate.

^^^This! All of it!

 

[Abe Fromen]

Trade is equal. There is an imbalance because the US is 300 million people and Canada is 30 million. We export more into the US than they import to us. That's not unfair, it's the way it is. If we imported as much from the US as we exported, what would it be and who would buy it? It's not gonna happen. #45 destroyed NAFTA and rewrote it, #46 didn't change it and now #47 says it's unfair, stupidly calling it a subsidy, and wants to impose tariffs? On a deal he made 5-6 years ago? C'mon..

 

[matrixxu]

It seems there will be aditional 10% tax on top of the 25%.
I wonder if anyone knows if it will still apply only to values over 800$ or that ammount will change aswell.
Planning to re-route a China purchase through USA in order to avoid paying 24% in my EU country, and trying to not end up paying 35% instead .

 

[Shiftayy]

It seems there will be aditional 10% tax on top of the 25%.
I wonder if anyone knows if it will still apply only to values over 800$ or that ammount will change aswell.
Planning to re-route a China purchase through USA in order to avoid paying 24% in my EU country, and trying to not end up paying 35% instead .

I was reading a lot about the new tariffs today and please, correct me if I am wrong, but it appears like the de minimis exception got closed so these tariffs will affect packages listed under $800 unlike before? Sure hope they are wrong!

 

[aleks hk]

While everyone is focusing on Canada, bear in mind Trump's latest executive order on China tariffs removes a de minimis limit of $800 which previously applied. Declared values of $100 or even $700 used to let things in under the radar.

From tomorrow everything coming in from China is subject to tariff at least in principle. Reality is that over a billion small packages go from China to the US each year, so I doubt much will change immediately but it could mean anything that looks like it has reasonable value will be more likely to be inspected.

 

[Breachie365]

Anyone getting the feeling that "tariffs" is in the same general area of genius ideas as "Brexit"..?

Brit here… this is very Deja vu! Fascinated to see how it plays out - and hope US cousins can still get affordable reps!

 

[Barnabas2000]

While everyone is focusing on Canada, bear in mind Trump's latest executive order on China tariffs removes a de minimis limit of $800 which previously applied. Declared values of $100 or even $700 used to let things in under the radar.

From tomorrow everything coming in from China is subject to tariff at least in principle. Reality is that over a billion small packages go from China to the US each year, so I doubt much will change immediately but it could mean anything that looks like it has reasonable value will be more likely to be inspected.

Agreed! I urge anyone buying from China to list their experiences here or if TDs are raising prices for pieces sent to the US.

 

[rcom440]

There will be triangle shipments. Packages won’t be coming directly from China to the US.

 

[Karbon74]

Agreed! I urge anyone buying from China to list their experiences here or if TDs are raising prices for pieces sent to the US.

If the rate of customs seizure increases, it is pretty sure that they will add a premium

 

[yodog]

News just hit

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-postal-service-suspends-incoming-packages-china-hong-kong-2025-02-05/

 

[Reaps]

And so it begins

Hopefully it causes such a huge disruption that they undo it in a few weeks

 

[Barnabas2000]

News just hit

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-postal-service-suspends-incoming-packages-china-hong-kong-2025-02-05/

I was just gonna mention that! Saw it here: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/usps-suspends-packages-china-hong-kong/

It says "temporarily". Would this mean that FedEx / UPS, etc., would take over any packages coming from China? Or, like a user said above, that triangle shipments would occur? Sounds like a nightmare.

M2M is gonna be the way to go, I think. Thank God for RWI!