New raids

[chrisat]

I ordered one of the new APSF JLC MUT Small Seconds this week, so it's going to be interesting to find out whether this is ever going to be shipped.
I also have a 124060 VSF on backorder. I was surprised to hear that instead of the usual 1-2 weeks, I was told that the wait will be more like 3-4 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if I will have to wait a bit longer than that, though

 

[nathanwind]

I ordered one of the new APSF JLC MUT Small Seconds this week, so it's going to be interesting to find out whether this is ever going to be shipped.
I also have a 124060 VSF on backorder. I was surprised to hear that instead of the usual 1-2 weeks, I was told that the wait will be more like 3-4 weeks. I wouldn't be surprised if I will have to wait a bit longer than that, though

See my post #38 above....I had ordered a watch that was from APSF from a TD back mid-April....I did get QC pics about a week later, and it did ship recently - so *possibly* the APS Factory wasn't affected?

 

[JayBee0815]

Well, until l hear any info from the sellers I know, I will keep my cool. Things slowed down because of Pandabuy, EWF and ARF apparently got hit, but Clean? Nothing about it so far.

Btw, just got 8kg haul from CSS, np issues. Another parcel on the way from QCXC, in the meantime got new Pepsi bezel for my C+.

World falling apart? Hardly. Panic mode? Full speed.

 

[225450]

This reminds me of that article that caused RepLadies to go private, showing how good fakes got

The Rich New York Women Who Love Their Fake Birkins

Among a certain set, counterfeit luxury bags may be more popular than the real thing.

www.thecut.com

The last thing you want to do is humiliate a corporation or brand pubicly to a huge mainstream audience.

Replica watches have been around since the beginning of time (funny joke get it?), but I hope we don't have some kind of situation that is similar, even though there are many comparison Youtube videos....

Nice article. Thanks

 

[tomriddle]

Do you have a link to this without the paywall?

it's interesting that they hid this behind a paywall.. guess it got more traction than they anticipated so time to make some $$

i read the article and re-posted it back when they first wrote it.. didn't share it here because well.. it was NOT about watches

but the gist is:
Pandabuy (this is what caused all this. that platform got too big too soon and literally blew up on tiktok - raided: Chinese shopping agent faces action from multiple rights holders

• Six warehouses of popular shopping agent Pandabuy raided by police in China
• Follows legal action by 16 brands, with investigations also ongoing in the UK
• Law firm that coordinated the action tells WTR that access to Pandabuy’s records will allow investigators to pursue major sellers for future legal action

The best/most important part of the article, I did an excerpt on which is this:
"The action was coordinated in large part by IP services business Rouse and its strategic partner in China, Lusheng. Talking exclusively to WTR, Chris Bailey, Rouse's head of UK and EU enforcement, said the raids are “ongoing” and it is “early days”, but he is so far “excited about the result”. He states that access to Pandabuy’s records will allow investigators to pursue major sellers for future legal action. “While it’s nice to seize stuff, the real benefit will be the total transactions in the database. Generally the buyers are mostly individuals or in some instances small import businesses, but we're probably not interested in the buyers as a legal target. However, the sellers – and there have been some quite prominent sellers identified already – will be the top targets.” "

so it's not just pb they are after.. but the actual sellers. How do you kill a snake? Cut off its head! To this day the "scene" is effectively dead.. no sellers. No one to buy from anywhere or ship the items out.. massive chargebacks going on to the point that every "platform" that offered goods from china has banned Paypal and will only accept direct ACH transfers now (think cash aka non-refundable)

Here's also the most recent article besides Bloomberg:

Pandabuy: police raid ‘20 football stadiums’ worth of alleged fake goods warehouses

Arrests as Chinese authorities working with UK police and international trademark agencies seize millions of parcels bound for customers worldwide

www.theguardian.com

Just to confirm what some have mentioned, indeed , this was a pretty significant raid.
When you get pissed that something isn't perfect or it takes a little longer for something you want, there are between 200-300 people who were jailed during this raid (that is an accurate number, not a guess).

The factories that were shut down were ZF, AF, PPF, Clean, and several others.

Some dealers keep a decent amount of watches in stock. We should still see watches flowing pretty decent for a short time.

There is no ETA on startup. This may take a little while. This one was significant.

this ^ .. it's not going to blow over anytime soon.. will fakes come back?

of course.. it's like 2% of China's entire GDP! But for now.. the heat is on and CCP has to save face so everything has been affected and people are being locked up/etc... it was only a matter of time before the effect reached the watch factories which are the OG's of the entire rep world.. even before the Nike's and Louis V's etc...

--
so to those who are wanting to order (good luck) or those who have ordered (be patient) or worse those who already paid and have air to show (PLEASE do not do a chargeback/etc)...

the bottom line is things are bad right now.. very bad.. and the effects have reached every single nook of the world of fakes

....the rabbit hole is deeper than you think my friends

 

[leebert]

of course.. it's like 2% of China's entire GDP! But for now..

Tom - is that 2% number for real or is it a small figure to make a point - if the former, I'm blown away by the size of the replica market (~300B/yr, which is ~$100B more than Microsoft's revenue), it stretches credulity. Put another way, that's ~600M Daytona Reps per year!

I know a shitload of stuff is repped (bags, shoes, etc), but... can't be.

Better bet: you picked a small number to make your point

Thanks - I'm rather anal on these kind of figures (helps me orient when insane numbers are tossed about)

 

[tomriddle]

Tom - is that 2% number for real or is it a small figure to make a point - if the former, I'm blown away by the size of the replica market (~300B/yr, which is ~$100B more than Microsoft's revenue), it stretches credulity. Put another way, that's ~600M Daytona Reps per year!

I know a shitload of stuff is repped (bags, shoes, etc), but... can't be.

Better bet: you picked a small number to make your point

Thanks - I'm rather anal on these kind of figures (helps me orient when insane numbers are tossed about)

probably a conservative estimate to be honest...

hell, everything is faked in china

everything? E V E R Y T H I N G

 

[Karbon74]

China’s military budget is less than 2% of their GDP. USA’s is a bit less than 3%

So I think it was a figure of speech

 

[Kerbus]

I even heard of counterfeit Band Aid adhesive bandages there

 

[MaximillianGT]

China’s military budget is less than 2% of their GDP. USA’s is a bit less than 3%

So I think it was a figure of speech

Well, a second lieutenant of the PLA is about US$400 per month, a private in the US Army gets US$1833 per month. That makes a difference.

 

[Dave2302]

.................. And nobody has even mentioned all the absolute crap downright dangerous fake Motor Car parts that eminate from China, and are sold by UK motor factors.

I'd say 2% is a very very conservatively huge under estimation

 

[trailboss99]

Tom - is that 2% number for real or is it a small figure to make a point - if the former, I'm blown away by the size of the replica market (~300B/yr, which is ~$100B more than Microsoft's revenue), it stretches credulity. Put another way, that's ~600M Daytona Reps per year!

I know a shitload of stuff is repped (bags, shoes, etc), but... can't be.

Better bet: you picked a small number to make your point

Thanks - I'm rather anal on these kind of figures (helps me orient when insane numbers are tossed about)

If you include everything that's repped I'd say it's an understatement. Everything from aircraft/car/truck parts and pharmaceuticals to equipment and machinery is repped as well as the staff you would first think of, it's a huge industry.

 

[Vineetd23]

Not to mention the value of all the fentanyl they produce and send over …

 

[b0b3rman]

Well that's not a rep , its just good ol fent 🫠

 

[makoberry]

Don't worry, the hydra will grow new heads. While it was a significant blow to some the counterfeit business runs very deep. Millions of people are involved and billions of dollars are being made. Sellers will take precautions and factories will lay low for a while. Business will be back to normal before the summer.

 

[b0b3rman]

I just ordered a Clean Pepsi from ctime, they told me qc pics will take 4-5 days. Let's see how things play out

 

[daytona4me]

Update:

ZF is back working already as of today.

Clean will be back very shortly.

 

[Vineetd23]

That’s way faster than after prior raids, guess this panic has been overblown, like COVID

 

[Vineetd23]

Kidding, I wore masks and got the vaccines, etc…

 

[Reaps]

That’s way faster than after prior raids, guess this panic has been overblown, like COVID

thing is raids could be anything from "increased police presence so factory takes a break" or full blown "factory workers and place raided and arrested" lol