RAIDS happening - message from reddit dealer

[derjenigewelcher]

H7-25 You dont understand? Well, because more Swiss GEN Watches are sold in China than in Switzerland, so a large amount!

 

[JayBee0815]

They want strong companies in their country.

That's the point. And all TDs and High-End-Rep-Factories together have a lower turnover than the Company-Kindergarten of Huawei or the canteen of BOE ;-)

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[CaptainObvious]

Man I'm getting real nervous from all of this. Just before all of this happened I made my first order for 3 watches. DJF datejust 116234 and an extra ARF jubilee bracelet, VRF GMT master 126710 and a VSF Omega Seamaster NTTD. A grand total of $1500. And I'd like to get at least 3-4 more reps. Guess if I'm nervous now! It's been two weeks and no QC photos except for the DJF. No more info from TD either.

 

[derjenigewelcher]

Send the TD a Email.
wait another 2 weeks

back in the days 3-4 months were normal....

 

[DMJW]

I find it hard to believe the Noob owners will just walk away without selling their tooling and/or machinery to another aspiring factory. Not to mention the supply chain for parts will seek out different buyers. I suspect this is unlikely to be the last we see of the 4130 clone etc

 

[Eatdirtfartdust]

I find it hard to believe the Noob owners will just walk away without selling their tooling and/or machinery to another aspiring factory. Not to mention the supply chain for parts will seek out different buyers. I suspect this is unlikely to be the last we see of the 4130 clone etc

they can’t sell what’s been confiscated

 

[DMJW]

they can’t sell what’s been confiscated

I don't think we give these people enough credit, its likely they didn't keep all of their equipment and designs in a single location.

 

[Eatdirtfartdust]

Possible, but not likely. I can imagine moving product from one factory/warehouse to another to perform different steps in the manufacturing process would be just as risky as doing it all in one stop.

 

[DMJW]

Possible, but not likely. I can imagine moving product from one factory/warehouse to another to perform different steps in the manufacturing process would be just as risky as doing it all in one stop.

Guess we're probably not going to know the answer to this unless someone with more of an insight can comment, regardless, my opinion on the advances noob have made remains the same, someone will pick up right were the left off. The vacuum will always be filled, factories will come and go, they will move around the region and may even find themselves beyond the borders of china in the not so distant future.

 

[Atlas_Shrugged]

Noob was probably the first to help the transition of the rep market from average products to really high end. I cannot see him, them, getting back into the business. They have made a huge amount of money these last years. Anyone with common sense would see how he can get out of this mess with the least damage and then live to enjoy the profits. No one would risk spending jail time in an nice remote area of China when all he has to do is just accept that the game is over for them and move on. Other factories will perhaps appear but it will take a long time for them to reach the Noob standard, if they ever do that is.

What you said makes logical sense. I think many of us would do what you said. But how many of us have watched movies on drug lords or big time drug runners with so much cash they are hiding it in their walls and we are thinking "that's enough money, quit before you get caught or a rival cartal cuts you up piece by piece with a chainsaw" yet they don't quit. Not comparing rep watches to running coke, of course coke is a 1000x better high than reps BUT the addiction to more and more money is a tough dragon to beat down.

 

[Mark1937]

in the reps the ratio of production and resale costs is very low. we are not talking about billions in earnings

 

[Manuel.b]

in the reps the ratio of production and resale costs is very low. we are not talking about billions in earnings

I do not agree with this.
Let me express my opinion, the quality of replicas is not excellent for what we pay for them (the best ones at least $500), I can say this because I own a "San Martin" (a homage to the Submariner, for those who don't know) that I paid $200 for and comparing it to my VSF the build quality is the same.
And then let's not forget that Chinese labor costs very little and no warranty is given on replicas.
So adding all these factors together, to build a good replica you don't have more than 150/200 dollars of expense, so the remaining 300 dollars in whose pockets will go?!

 

[JayBee0815]

I do not agree with this.
Let me express my opinion, the quality of replicas is not excellent for what we pay for them (the best ones at least $500), I can say this because I own a "San Martin" (a homage to the Submariner, for those who don't know) that I paid $200 for and comparing it to my VSF the build quality is the same.
And then let's not forget that Chinese labor costs very little and no warranty is given on replicas.
So adding all these factors together, to build a good replica you don't have more than 150/200 dollars of expense, so the remaining 300 dollars in whose pockets will go?!

These are just educated guesses ;-)

As you don t know the production numbers you can t assume the economies of scale. How many "San Martins" (and under which label) are produced? If you produce one million cases the unit price will be for instance 5 US$, and if you produce only 1k cases (same quality) it might be 25 US$. Only the insiders know the numbers.

 

[Wacht]

These are just educated guesses ;-)

As you don t know the production numbers you can t assume the economies of scale. How many "San Martins" (and under which label) are produced? If you produce one million cases the unit price will be for instance 5 US$, and if you produce only 1k cases (same quality) it might be 25 US$. Only the insiders know the numbers.

Still, I don't think the rep business is the biggest health care, pension and insurance benefactor around... some taxes and fee's are just not applicable, while other are.

 

[stepanok]

in the reps the ratio of production and resale costs is very low. we are not talking about billions in earnings

Hmm.......I wouldn't mind if it was about millions.

 

[stepanok]

Still, I don't think the rep business is the biggest health care, pension and insurance benefactor around... some taxes and fee's are just not applicable, while other are.

Health care? insurance benefactors? ..taxes????? I think you are talking about the US here.

 

[nucorno]

I just got QA pics for an GMF Tiffany Blue OP that was ordered just a few days ago. Hopefully a good sign.

 

[mlk2000m0]

Despite all of the rumours, I know that Noob's operations are too big to be shutdown indefinitely.

Consider the following factors:
(1) They most definitely have diversified their production throughout china and may have the capacity to look elsewhere, where labour costs are low.
(2) The machinery and systems in place to manufacture high end replicas have intrinsic value [all of this information cannot just simply disappear, it will go to the next highest bidder].
(3) *MOST IMPORTANTLY* Whenever there is an excess in demand for goods, someone will fulfil this demand as they are driven by a profit incentive.

Let's stop panicking and adding fire to this rumour mill, by waiting for the situation to blow over. It is inevitable that the market will bounce back like it always has. The production of the beloved 4130, will and has to continue.

NOTE: This most probably also applies to the other factories I'm sure, I myself was most concerned for Noob's situation, due to the apparent halt in production of the V4 Daytona's and their retirement from the rep scene.

 

[philwongnz]

Man I'm getting real nervous from all of this. Just before all of this happened I made my first order for 3 watches. DJF datejust 116234 and an extra ARF jubilee bracelet, VRF GMT master 126710 and a VSF Omega Seamaster NTTD. A grand total of $1500. And I'd like to get at least 3-4 more reps. Guess if I'm nervous now! It's been two weeks and no QC photos except for the DJF. No more info from TD either.

The worst case scenario you will get your money back.

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[fabbe79]

Despite all of the rumours, I know that Noob's operations are too big to be shutdown indefinitely.

Consider the following factors:
(1) They most definitely have diversified their production throughout china and may have the capacity to look elsewhere, where labour costs are low.
(2) The machinery and systems in place to manufacture high end replicas have intrinsic value [all of this information cannot just simply disappear, it will go to the next highest bidder].
(3) *MOST IMPORTANTLY* Whenever there is an excess in demand for goods, someone will fulfil this demand as they are driven by a profit incentive.

Let's stop panicking and adding fire to this rumour mill, by waiting for the situation to blow over. It is inevitable that the market will bounce back like it always has. The production of the beloved 4130, will and has to continue.

NOTE: This most probably also applies to the other factories I'm sure, I myself was most concerned for Noob's situation, due to the apparent halt in production of the V4 Daytona's and their retirement from the rep scene.

If I was mr Rolex I would have offered a generous reward to Chinese government acquire the 4130 noob equipment violating my design.. maybe swiss government can offer some diplomatic support..