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The NoobMariner: Is it still available, or not?
- Thread starter trailboss99
- Start date
I am a trial lawyer who is used to dealing with "experts" whose opinions dramatically differ. I realize that everyone has a certain "data base" which they "logically" process in order formulate opinions which make sense to them. More often than not when experts opinions differ it is because they are reasoning from different data bases and not because they are using different logic. Often when I ask the opposing expert to assume the same data base my expert used, the opposing expert (if he is honest - not all are) will admit that would change his opinion. I believe that is what is happening here.
BKLM has a certain data base: his personal experience and he reasons from that experience (seeing watches he knows come from only one factory) that only one factory produces the high quality "noob" watches. Logical, but entirely based upon the limited premise of examining watches from only one factory which is a weakness that can make his conclusion (only one factory produces the "noob" serial number watches) inaccurate. Just as many factories copy the Rolex name they can just as easily copy the noob serial number and why wouldn't they? Fake Rolexs and fake noobs make perfect sense to a low quality factory tying to sell more product by representing it to be better than it is. Dealers can lie or not know that their suppliers are drop shipping watches from different factories. The gray market is too gray for a purchaser to penetrate down to the factory or supplier level.
Fakemaster has an entirely different data base which logically leads him to an entirely different conclusion (many factories of vastly differing quality are producing "noob" serial number watches) and he has published photographs and measurements to support his conclusion. Fakemaster examined and measured watches all with the "noob" serial number on the case. I understand that all came from the same dealer and the noob serial numbers were not all stamped in exactly the same place. After examining his photographs and measurements I believe the variation is to great to be explained by normal variation on the assembly line of a good factory or from the CNC machining variation. I think Fakemaster is correct that there are fake noobs being made in low quality factories and sent to us by dealers who either don't know their drop shipper is doing this or don't care.
It is entirely possible, and in my opinion true, that both BKLM and Fakemaster are correct. There is one good "noob" factory but there are also low quality factories producing fake "noobs" with the noob serial number. If Fakemaster had started his analysis with only the data base BKLM used, Fakemaster would have come to the same conclusion as BKLM. Likewise, if BKLM had started his analysis with only the data base Fakemaster used, BKLM would have come to the same conclusion as Fakemaster. What we have here is two honest experts coming to different conclusions because they are logically reasoning from different data bases and each of their data bases is limited in some way.
You need to put both data sets together and reason from that larger data base to come to a more accurate conclusion which takes into account all the available data: there is one good noob factory AND there are other low quality factories copying the noob serial number. This is why I personally concluded that the noob name or the noob serial number is not a guarantee of getting the same watchs reviewed by By-Tor. Obviously, the watches reviewed by By-Tor were made somewhere and likely are still made but the real issue is being able to reliably get that watch. One would think any of our "trusted dealers" could deliver it. Not true, as Fakemaster's data set proves. There must be a subset of "trusted dealers" (trusted noobfactory dealers?) who can and do deliver the same watch. It seems that BKLM, Eurotimez and Narikaa are in that subset but BKLM only offers ETA noobs he mods so only the other two are the only trusted source for a great $100 noob as reviewed by By-Tor. This is good information but how many people in this hobby know it? It took a long thread with contributions from very knowledgeable people to get use this far.
By the way, all this "noobishness" is really only relevant to an enlarged photograph of a watch or a loupe examination of a watch. But people don't wear enlarged photographs on their wrist and people you meet don't pull out their loupe to examine your watch. So all the talk about the "best" sub and the "non-best" being "garbage" is of academic interest to "nuts like us" but both a bit off the mark and too extreme. The evaluation of a watch should take into account more than mere appearance compared to the genuine. Smoothness of operation, correct lubrication of the movement, fit and finish also count and may count more than the holy grail of actual appearance under magnification compared to the genuine to the person who uses the watch daily. Some restraint is in order before so quickly labeling any watch other than the latest "best" as "junk." There can be many "best" replicas depending upon how you weight the criteria by which you are evaluating them.
BKLM has a certain data base: his personal experience and he reasons from that experience (seeing watches he knows come from only one factory) that only one factory produces the high quality "noob" watches. Logical, but entirely based upon the limited premise of examining watches from only one factory which is a weakness that can make his conclusion (only one factory produces the "noob" serial number watches) inaccurate. Just as many factories copy the Rolex name they can just as easily copy the noob serial number and why wouldn't they? Fake Rolexs and fake noobs make perfect sense to a low quality factory tying to sell more product by representing it to be better than it is. Dealers can lie or not know that their suppliers are drop shipping watches from different factories. The gray market is too gray for a purchaser to penetrate down to the factory or supplier level.
Fakemaster has an entirely different data base which logically leads him to an entirely different conclusion (many factories of vastly differing quality are producing "noob" serial number watches) and he has published photographs and measurements to support his conclusion. Fakemaster examined and measured watches all with the "noob" serial number on the case. I understand that all came from the same dealer and the noob serial numbers were not all stamped in exactly the same place. After examining his photographs and measurements I believe the variation is to great to be explained by normal variation on the assembly line of a good factory or from the CNC machining variation. I think Fakemaster is correct that there are fake noobs being made in low quality factories and sent to us by dealers who either don't know their drop shipper is doing this or don't care.
It is entirely possible, and in my opinion true, that both BKLM and Fakemaster are correct. There is one good "noob" factory but there are also low quality factories producing fake "noobs" with the noob serial number. If Fakemaster had started his analysis with only the data base BKLM used, Fakemaster would have come to the same conclusion as BKLM. Likewise, if BKLM had started his analysis with only the data base Fakemaster used, BKLM would have come to the same conclusion as Fakemaster. What we have here is two honest experts coming to different conclusions because they are logically reasoning from different data bases and each of their data bases is limited in some way.
You need to put both data sets together and reason from that larger data base to come to a more accurate conclusion which takes into account all the available data: there is one good noob factory AND there are other low quality factories copying the noob serial number. This is why I personally concluded that the noob name or the noob serial number is not a guarantee of getting the same watchs reviewed by By-Tor. Obviously, the watches reviewed by By-Tor were made somewhere and likely are still made but the real issue is being able to reliably get that watch. One would think any of our "trusted dealers" could deliver it. Not true, as Fakemaster's data set proves. There must be a subset of "trusted dealers" (trusted noobfactory dealers?) who can and do deliver the same watch. It seems that BKLM, Eurotimez and Narikaa are in that subset but BKLM only offers ETA noobs he mods so only the other two are the only trusted source for a great $100 noob as reviewed by By-Tor. This is good information but how many people in this hobby know it? It took a long thread with contributions from very knowledgeable people to get use this far.
By the way, all this "noobishness" is really only relevant to an enlarged photograph of a watch or a loupe examination of a watch. But people don't wear enlarged photographs on their wrist and people you meet don't pull out their loupe to examine your watch. So all the talk about the "best" sub and the "non-best" being "garbage" is of academic interest to "nuts like us" but both a bit off the mark and too extreme. The evaluation of a watch should take into account more than mere appearance compared to the genuine. Smoothness of operation, correct lubrication of the movement, fit and finish also count and may count more than the holy grail of actual appearance under magnification compared to the genuine to the person who uses the watch daily. Some restraint is in order before so quickly labeling any watch other than the latest "best" as "junk." There can be many "best" replicas depending upon how you weight the criteria by which you are evaluating them.
Good post. But I don't see it that way at all. I'm not saying you're wrong, but I have a different approach.
I only see replicas that are fundamentally successful. i.e they replicate the "spirit and looks" of the genuine article. Then there are bad replicas that don't.
I'm a professional photo guy... I work as an editor in a magazine. There's a strong visual & artistic side in my job and of course I could see things differently.
The way I see it... big driving factor for this community has always been the interest in visually better replications, and the standards of today are very high. High exceptations and high standards have had a positive impact to the whole hobby and it has led to much better replications. It's not about deceving people, it's about getting personal enjoyement from the "forger's art".
I don't care what factory the watches come from, or who sells them. Right now I'm recommending BK / WM9 for all Rolex replicas... at the moment it doesn't make any sense to buy high quality Rolex reps from anyone else. If a better source comes up from somewhere, that's what I'm going to recommend. I only have loyality to the membership.
My only motivator is to get the best possible watches for the members. People who don't care about accuracy and think that "99% people won't notice my watch anyway" can buy those "Rolexes" from the dark street corners. Why would anyone come to a HC rep watch community and settle for a shitty Rolex replica that has all the basics wrong, when the better ones are freely available? That's just something I don't understand. We wouldn't have amazing reps like Breitling Skyland, Ebel Discovery, BCE, UPO, etc. if the membership didn't have the constant thrive for better and more accurate.
Of course I understand the need for cheaper quality reps too. Instead of offering junk the dealers should try to find source for the good ones... and offer them to our members. Check chrgod's guide which proves that cheap price doesn't have to mean bad quality/low accuracy.
I only see replicas that are fundamentally successful. i.e they replicate the "spirit and looks" of the genuine article. Then there are bad replicas that don't.
I'm a professional photo guy... I work as an editor in a magazine. There's a strong visual & artistic side in my job and of course I could see things differently.
The way I see it... big driving factor for this community has always been the interest in visually better replications, and the standards of today are very high. High exceptations and high standards have had a positive impact to the whole hobby and it has led to much better replications. It's not about deceving people, it's about getting personal enjoyement from the "forger's art".
I don't care what factory the watches come from, or who sells them. Right now I'm recommending BK / WM9 for all Rolex replicas... at the moment it doesn't make any sense to buy high quality Rolex reps from anyone else. If a better source comes up from somewhere, that's what I'm going to recommend. I only have loyality to the membership.
My only motivator is to get the best possible watches for the members. People who don't care about accuracy and think that "99% people won't notice my watch anyway" can buy those "Rolexes" from the dark street corners. Why would anyone come to a HC rep watch community and settle for a shitty Rolex replica that has all the basics wrong, when the better ones are freely available? That's just something I don't understand. We wouldn't have amazing reps like Breitling Skyland, Ebel Discovery, BCE, UPO, etc. if the membership didn't have the constant thrive for better and more accurate.
Of course I understand the need for cheaper quality reps too. Instead of offering junk the dealers should try to find source for the good ones... and offer them to our members. Check chrgod's guide which proves that cheap price doesn't have to mean bad quality/low accuracy.
By-Tor. You are correct in that we all want visual beauty and perfection and you take really great professional photos! But, sometimes there are additional considerations beyond mere visual accuracy. If the watch has a perfect appearance but the movement isn't properly oiled so it stops in a few months, what good is that? I guess even a dead watch will be accurate twice a day! But I want more. Your focus (and photographs) of accurate reproduction serve a very important purpose. But they just are not the be all and end all of considerations. Some people, even members of RWI, can be happy with slightly less visual accuracy and better mechanical performance. I am one. If that makes me a less valued member of RWI, so be it. I will keep reading, keep learning, and use the visual accuracy data you so excellently provide as one of the criteria by which I evaluate a watch. Also, as an aside here but an issue I raised in this thread, members should be able to easily find and purchase all watches reviewed. Some dealer should guarantee it with a link to the review right on his website. That was not true when I tried to find the submariners you reviewed.
don't give too much credit on consistency to the factory. You don't think one factory can have so much variance? Think again. Like you said I only get my noobs from one supplier. But I have seen big enough variance in stuff I got. For example, the CGs vary from way-fat to almost-no-trimming-needed, slanted-top to pretty-flat top. Recently I got one with huge huge CGs. I thought it was a gmt-iic case. Another example, teeth shape and cut vary - some have cuts too deep, deep into the bezel lip; different profile. Another example, lugs' width. Yet another example crystal thickness, it varies from 1.72mm to 2.05mm. Hey, they are all from my one single source. You're assuming wrong.
It's possible it's one master company with multiple manufacturing facilities. Some parts of the watch have huge variance, some parts are consistent, e.g. the precision sensitive parts, e.g. crown tube and crown, movement ring, crystal (diameter). Crystals, even the thickness varies, the diameter is the same. If you have a F520117 from whoever, I can give you a crystal from my supplier and I can guarantee it will fit. Note the F520117 crystal is unique in construction and size. It will only fit F520117 cases. It won't fit a MBW/MBK/TWB, wm9, the wokky sub. If you have a F520117, I can give you a movement ring from my supplier and it will fit. If you have a F520117, I can give you a bezel insert from my supplier and it will fit. Note the noob bezel insert is also unique to the noob, it's smaller in size than gen and other sub reps and it has a flat bottom. Hey, show me a F520117 sub with a different insert.
How do different owners, different companies keep to the same precision on those precision sensitive parts? The measurements are not even standard. If it's not just one company making all F520117 products, the only explanation there are companies copying the noobfactory. It's possible. I just don't think it's probable. Heck it could be a spin-off or breakup much like TWB, MBW, and WM9 (these guys all used to work together). I know that's what you and others suspect and what this thread is all about.
donaldejose, all you want is to get a sub just like By-Tor's right? You think By-Tor's noobmariner is beautiful, I can show you more that are as good or even better. No offense By-Tor. Of course I can show you some that are crappy. I have a box full of them. Does it matter it's one factory or not? You can't buy directly from the factory anyway. You can only buy from a supplier/dealer. Just pick a dealer, someone you can work with, you can trust.
-bk
It's possible it's one master company with multiple manufacturing facilities. Some parts of the watch have huge variance, some parts are consistent, e.g. the precision sensitive parts, e.g. crown tube and crown, movement ring, crystal (diameter). Crystals, even the thickness varies, the diameter is the same. If you have a F520117 from whoever, I can give you a crystal from my supplier and I can guarantee it will fit. Note the F520117 crystal is unique in construction and size. It will only fit F520117 cases. It won't fit a MBW/MBK/TWB, wm9, the wokky sub. If you have a F520117, I can give you a movement ring from my supplier and it will fit. If you have a F520117, I can give you a bezel insert from my supplier and it will fit. Note the noob bezel insert is also unique to the noob, it's smaller in size than gen and other sub reps and it has a flat bottom. Hey, show me a F520117 sub with a different insert.
How do different owners, different companies keep to the same precision on those precision sensitive parts? The measurements are not even standard. If it's not just one company making all F520117 products, the only explanation there are companies copying the noobfactory. It's possible. I just don't think it's probable. Heck it could be a spin-off or breakup much like TWB, MBW, and WM9 (these guys all used to work together). I know that's what you and others suspect and what this thread is all about.
donaldejose, all you want is to get a sub just like By-Tor's right? You think By-Tor's noobmariner is beautiful, I can show you more that are as good or even better. No offense By-Tor. Of course I can show you some that are crappy. I have a box full of them. Does it matter it's one factory or not? You can't buy directly from the factory anyway. You can only buy from a supplier/dealer. Just pick a dealer, someone you can work with, you can trust.
-bk
BKLM. Great post. Very helpful detailed information. I didn't realize one factory would have such variation. You are correct. My assumption on that point was wrong. I stand corrected. But what about those terrible "noobs" Fakemaster photographed and posted? What he saw was real. Do you think they all came from the same factory, even that much variation and terrible underside of the dial? Seems hard to believe the variation he saw were all from one "good" factory producing the watches By-Tor thought were so great.
I very much agree with your point about finding a trusted dealer (or two) or a trusted builder. For a hand built watch that is quite easy. People like you, WM9 and Fakemaster build a consistent product which may have some variation but not as much as Fakemaster found in his examination of watches with the noob serial number. But for an out of the factory box watch it is harder to find a trusted dealer. If it were so easy, then trailboss99 would not have even started this thread because it would have been obvious to him that the same consistent quality noob watch was easily available from many sources. If a dealer would link to the reviews and guarantee to deliver the same watch, that would be so much easier. Otherwise, the reader of the review is a bit at sea. So do we have a dealer who will rise to the occasion and put such links on his website? If not, why not? Do they not want to held accountable for failure to deliver the same watch? You build a number of watches, post the details and are willing to be held accountable for delivering what you advertise. Dealers could also, if they want to be in the top tier.
I very much agree with your point about finding a trusted dealer (or two) or a trusted builder. For a hand built watch that is quite easy. People like you, WM9 and Fakemaster build a consistent product which may have some variation but not as much as Fakemaster found in his examination of watches with the noob serial number. But for an out of the factory box watch it is harder to find a trusted dealer. If it were so easy, then trailboss99 would not have even started this thread because it would have been obvious to him that the same consistent quality noob watch was easily available from many sources. If a dealer would link to the reviews and guarantee to deliver the same watch, that would be so much easier. Otherwise, the reader of the review is a bit at sea. So do we have a dealer who will rise to the occasion and put such links on his website? If not, why not? Do they not want to held accountable for failure to deliver the same watch? You build a number of watches, post the details and are willing to be held accountable for delivering what you advertise. Dealers could also, if they want to be in the top tier.
donaldejose said:
I have lots of terrible noobs from this one supplier I always use too. I didn't look at Fakey's dial variance. I've seen my share of dial variance, ranging from crooked markers, fallen off markers, fallen off luminous tape off the markers, crooked letters on "SUBMARINER", not to mention smudges, scratches, and whatever crap on the dial. I don't actually attach "quality" to noobfactory products. They look good overall when everything is right. Sub-standards creep in to individual parts as well as assembly of the watches. I can give you loads of example because I handled so many. Floating insert (thick double-sided tape), crooked cyclop (bad eyesight on the assembly worker's part), crooked dates (sloppy work on assembly worker's part), crown doesn't screw all the way to cover the tube (stem too long), missing caseback gasket (absent mindedness), springbar holes on SELs don't match lugholes esp. on the TT model (assembly worker will use thin springbars to fit the SELs resulting in SELs not fitted well). One classic "sub-standard" is when they use thin crystals, they don't press them deep in the case. I mean they are barely hanging on the case. This happens a lot on the YMs. I bet when you pressure test these watches, the crystals will pop.
Is it a good factory? Hell yes. Before wm9 came along, their stuff is as close to gen as you could get. On some models, it's still true, e.g. exp2, gmt-iic, DSSD v3. Fact is they are improving with quality, percentage-wise. But picking something with perfect cyclop and dates remains to be a challenge. Some product lines are better assembled, e.g. GMT2 and Exp2 have more straight dates than the rest, YM is overall better assembled than the sub over and over again. The worst is really the good old sub. The newer models like SSD, GMT-IIC, and DSSD overall are very good except for the dates, excellent fit throughout. When everything is right, this factory's watch is simply excellent. Getting everything right is the challenge, it's true for any reps though.
Variance is big everywhere. Noobfactory happens to be in the spot light because we, rep enthusiasts, buy so many of their product. You haven't seen other factories' stuff enough. If you take any one factory and start recording the variance of that one factory's stuff, you will find similar or worse stats. wm9 isn't exempt from this problem. Overall quality is a couple notches higher than the rest. But variance exists just the same. I found crooked dials all the time for example. I complained the gaps on the SELs with the lugs. And then assembly errors can creep in. That's why I like to assemble the watches myself, when possible. E.g.
John117's wm9 v2 sub originally came from wm9 directly, not from me. We all think wm9 is so great. Take a look. Assembly problems can screw up a great watch.
crooked x-y axis:
crooked tube so there's more gap on the top of the crown:
many dates are not centered
and the insert was not recessed.
Most dealers can't fix anything. They can only send back the watch to the supplier and exchange it. They are not modders. I don't do high volume so I can do it a little better. I hate to say it but reps are reps. The best approach is
1. pick your dealer
2. be reasonable
3. work with your dealer. Sead1999 of Super Mirrors always comes through eventually for me.
-bk
Bk, I saw those photos in the other thread when you originally posted them. Your posts are very helpful. I was surprised even very expensive WM9 had some big variance issues. I guess the bottom line is that Quality Control is really lacking in the rep market. Of course, any gen product has quality control issues also, like cars. Design excellence and build quality are separate issues. When Hyundai wanted to make build quality a priority they put 20% more QC inspectors on the assembly line than Toyota or Lexus uses. In 2003 the Hyundai Sonata was the most reliable (in first year of ownership) of any car sold in the US according to J.D. Powers, beating even Lexus. This year the Hyundai Genesis is car of the year both in Canada and the US according to a separate vote of automobile journalists in each country. That may be more do to design excellence than build quality but fit and finish certainly plays a part in the judgment of quality. It will take ten years to tell how the newly designed and built Hyundai vehicles hold up in the long run but adding more QC inspectors on the assembly line has paid off in the short term. Maybe some day a rep factory will step up its quality control. But I guess it would have to sell its products with its factory name attached for the extra cost and effort to be marketable. Since the factories don't seem to want their name attached to their products there is less incentive for QC. We just have to rely upon dealers to do QC or buy from builders. If there is this much trouble with Rolex, it must be even worse for some other brands because you would expect Rolex to draw the most capital investment from Chinese manufacturers since it must constitute the largest market.
Some people may feel this thread has gone on too long, but as for me it has been great because it drew out detailed information (like all the specifics on the variance you have seen from one factory) which I don't believe had ever been available before in other threads. The new information has caused me to alter some of my prior assumptions. It is always good to learn new things and alter existing opinions accordingly.
Some people may feel this thread has gone on too long, but as for me it has been great because it drew out detailed information (like all the specifics on the variance you have seen from one factory) which I don't believe had ever been available before in other threads. The new information has caused me to alter some of my prior assumptions. It is always good to learn new things and alter existing opinions accordingly.
pugwash said:Nope, not one of mine. I'd never use that font like that.Dizzy said:
hhmm i wonder who i stole it from then? :shock:
lol
I acquired a noobmariner case, which I liked the look of (16610 shape). In today's situation of BP, ARF/RAF, viet, etc options then I did wonder how it would compare.
More recently I got a dial from a different noobmariner, (from a very kind long standing RWI member, who gifted it to me) and intend to restore the watch with a decent 2836 and see what it looks like compared to the other offerings. (other options include removal of cyclops to make a 14060 or a different dial to make a 16800, but this would meaning drilling some holes)
From an initial look at it, things have moved on of course but for its time, and even now, it is a pretty good 16610 representation in terms of case shape. I was going to start a new thread, and still might, but this thread I stumbled across makes good reading for anyone interested in the rapid development of rep quality in the last few decades.
More recently I got a dial from a different noobmariner, (from a very kind long standing RWI member, who gifted it to me) and intend to restore the watch with a decent 2836 and see what it looks like compared to the other offerings. (other options include removal of cyclops to make a 14060 or a different dial to make a 16800, but this would meaning drilling some holes)
From an initial look at it, things have moved on of course but for its time, and even now, it is a pretty good 16610 representation in terms of case shape. I was going to start a new thread, and still might, but this thread I stumbled across makes good reading for anyone interested in the rapid development of rep quality in the last few decades.