Swiss watch industry Crisis ? Rep super clone movements ?

[Flyingman]

Are we almost there? How much knowledge do you really need to differentiate a super clone 3235 with a original balance complete from a genuine 3235 or 4130 rolex movement ?
As a hobby watchmaker, I use a powerful microscope to work on movements , and I'm pretty much up to date with all the latest super clones and rep factories.

Side by side comparison of movements after one has swap out a couple of parts with gen parts a bridge or two .., Could you really tell then apart ?

I see quite a few watch " guru " tik tokers claiming to be expert's on "sniffing" out reps but most of them have primitive knowledge on movement parts and horological terminology.

Given the fact that Rolex parts are non existing for independent watchmakers , but " generic " Rolex parts are available, do you really believe that every single Rolex owner has serviced his/heter watch at a AD service senter? Take into to account the outrageous prices Th AD charge for service ect....

My point is , that anyone that has had a service from a independent watchmaker on gen movement most likely has had gen parts changed with generic parts .
Some of the equally good a the gen parts and some not as good.

I believe that the Swiss watch industry is heading for a new crisis, similar to the quartz crisis in the past .. Given there arrogance and monopoly on parts , and the fact that the vast majority of the parts and movements are made in the far east ( same as reps) and they get away with it because of the " Swiss made " regulations they have that basically says you only need to assemble 60% of the watch I Switzerland to put the " swiss made " stamp.

Eminent crisis I think...or ?

 

[Feefo]

I don't see any crisis ahead. Owning a Rolex is a status symbol, 99,999% of the owners have no clue what's inside or how to differentiate it, but they'll continue to go to the AD to have their status symbol. If a watchmaker switches parts inside, they won't know and they won't care as long as outside it's a recognizable Rolex.

 

[Flyingman]

My point is that you can most likely pass a rep movement for a gen , and that the reps will eventually out sale the gen sooner that later...just because of exactly what you wrote : the vast majority of people just care about the outside, that the status symbol is there ..and not horology in general.

Do you really believe that a gen rolex movement performs " better " than a well service rep movement ?

The crisis is coming.. wait for it... just like the bubble burst regarding gen prices post covid ...

 

[Feefo]

I don't have the numbers but likely rep sales of some specific brands probably already out sale gens´sales. There's enough people willing to spend gen money and still viewing the counterfeit industry as intrinsically dirty and reprehensible, and these cover gen industry sales targets.
Moreover, gen brands more and more go into inhouse movement fabrication to limit replicability, which is actually only a real issue with rolex afaik, no other brand movements are replicated as much.
Regardless, there's enough stupid rich people who will continue spending stupid money for overpriced timepieces.

 

[p0pperini]

There are more than enough people out there with enough money to stay entirely within the AD/Genuine ecosystem and who would never even consider a rep. So IMHO, the rep industry, even with its visual accuracy and improvements to movements, will never have any noticeable impact on the Swiss watch industry monopoly. And that's all the gen manufacturers need. They don't need the secondary/secondhand market - which is where buyers will fall victim to watches that may have been contaminated with rep parts.

Have you tried asking an AD if you could please buy a Rolex sports watch? There's way, way more demand for gens through the authorised outlets than there is supply.

 

[Dave2302]

Do you really believe that a gen rolex movement performs " better " than a well service rep movement ?

No, I have rep movements that run very low +1 / +2 sec per day, and surprise of 'em all is a rep ladies DJ that I just got for Mels B/Day is actually running at about .3333 s a day straight outta the box

The crisis is coming.. wait for it... just like the bubble burst regarding gen prices post covid ...

Crises and burst bubbles are all over the media these days, have been for a long while, I avoid "The News" like the plague, it's all a load of trumped up bollocks IMO

 

[Dave2302]

I don't have the numbers but likely rep sales of some specific brands probably already out sale gens´sales. There's enough people willing to spend gen money and still viewing the counterfeit industry as intrinsically dirty and reprehensible, and these cover gen industry sales targets.
Moreover, gen brands more and more go into inhouse movement fabrication to limit replicability, which is actually only a real issue with rolex afaik, no other brand movements are replicated as much.
Regardless, there's enough stupid rich people who will continue spending stupid money for overpriced timepieces.

100% agree with all of this

 

[Reaps]

Without gen, there is no rep.

Replicas are COPIES.

It's easy to copy someone's homework, it's not easy to do the homework yourself.

No offense to the Chinese but they're not exactly the best at making their own watches, outside of Atelier Wen.

Look at San Martin and every single Chinese watch brand. I mean some of their original designs were fairly horrendous to be honest.

While I don't doubt the prowess of the Chinese in making quality movements, I'm not a watch maker, my watch maker tells me the movements are really good, but not quite "Rolex" good, aka the tolerances can be dodgy still. He tells me that Rolex movements, the parts just "fall into place" while the replicas need some fidgeting and moving around to fit in some times.

Name me one original Chinese movement. The SL-4801 is a 4130 rip off. The PT5000 is a A2824 clone. The Venus75 was bought from the Swiss. Most chinese movements are still low grade.

When the Chinese can originally make a whole new movement with unique functions, (on my mind I always think of Christopher Ward's Bel Canto), then we have a challenge to swiss watch making.

 

[Karbon74]

The true risk to Swiss watches is the smartwatch...or simply people not wearing watches anymore, thus crippling demand. Which does not seem to be the current trend, just looking at the number of microbrands launching.

That said, it's enough to look up the profit levels of the Swatch Group, and know that Rolex makes an even larger %profit.

Swiss watches are no longer timepieces. They are jewelry, enjoyment pieces and status symbols. The one thing that is infinite on Earth is human ego.

 

[Kerbus]

In the real world people think my preoccupation with watches is nuts. They don’t wear watches and the next generations are going to ask ” What’s a watch?”

 

[DarioM6611]

I don't have the numbers but likely rep sales of some specific brands probably already out sale gens´sales. There's enough people willing to spend gen money and still viewing the counterfeit industry as intrinsically dirty and reprehensible, and these cover gen industry sales targets.
Moreover, gen brands more and more go into inhouse movement fabrication to limit replicability, which is actually only a real issue with rolex afaik, no other brand movements are replicated as much.
Regardless, there's enough stupid rich people who will continue spending stupid money for overpriced timepieces.

 

[ciaoman21]

Rolex: here's why the luxury brand is expanding its production and building three new factories

Could this be a declaration of war on the gray market, which sees watches being exchanged through distribution channels that are not necessarily authorized by the watchmaker?

Rolex is expanding to meet the needs of its customers. This is why the luxury company must build three new factories. This is notably a large factory which, however, will not be ready for the launch of production for several years. It was therefore necessary to find an intermediate solution.

Rolex watches: a rare commodity
In recent years, watch enthusiasts have had to wait for long delays, especially at Rolex. Worldwide, it has become increasingly difficult to get a model from the famous luxury brand at the official price, especially for new customers. This of course worked in favor of the so-called gray market. But the Swiss manufacturer has now found a way that should satisfy both customers and approved jewelers.

Rolex expands production
According to media reports, the construction of a new Rolex factory is planned in the commune of Bulle, in the French-speaking part of the canton of Friborg in Switzerland, as a solution to the current supply shortage. To do this, the company purchased land with an area of approximately 10 hectares. Enough space to accommodate 2,000 new employees who should be hired there. If all goes well, production on site could begin in 2029.

To wait, Rolex found an intermediate solution with temporary factories. One will be built this year in Romont and the other will be in Villaz-Saint-Pierre, municipalities both located in the canton of Fribourg, precisely in the Glâne district. In the first, production should start in 2025, in the second, from 2024. The third site in Bulle will serve as a recruitment center. “The new Bulle production site, like the three temporary facilities, will allow Rolex to increase its production capacities, support its growth and meet ever-increasing demand,” the company said. 'business.

SOURCE: https://www.gqmagazine.fr/article/r...roduction-et-construit-trois-nouvelles-usines

 

[DarioM6611]

Same story for wine. At least here in Italy. I have friends that are involved in wine and restaurant, and they says the same thing: there 's a twenty % of people who really knows what they are drinking, all the rest are new rich that simply ask for the most expensive wine. While in fact, there are good wine for an affordable price. In the last twenty/thirty years, there has been an increasing of prices, due to the increasing interest on wine and cuisine. Lot of people with a huge amount of money to spend, but without the necessary knowledge, that need time to learn and appreciate.

 

[Hesekiel]

The world gets more divided and more diverse all the time. A few decades back when I was a young lad, there was a certain way on how to dress and how to behave. That included driving a car that is proper for one's social status and a watch that falls into the same place. People didn't wear PJs when going to the supermarket and they didn't have bull rings through their nose. If you look at photos from the 1960s, you'll notice that they always dressed properly, more so on Sundays, and wearing a proper watch was part of the dress code. Heck, even MLK, the black preacher for race equality, wore a Rolex Datejust, not as a status symbol, but because it was a sign of achievement. And a status symbol.

The quartz crisis, Swatch watches, smart phones and now smart watches are all challenges, that have and will continue to stirr things up. I too think that future generations will most likely not wear a wrist watch anymore that resembles anything we have today.

Watches will continue to be worn as status symbols and symbols of the good old times, however. Sadly, buyers of expensive time pieces are being told that in-house movements are desirable, which is why they are being made. But if you look at the cost of a service for a Rolex or Omega, you'll quickly realize why I prefer ETA, Sellita, and Miyota movements. I do that for the same reason I wouldn't want to own a Ferrari or Lamborghini anymore, but would prefer a sexy looking car with a domestic engine.

I'm sorry, what was the question again . . . ?

 

[Feefo]

Same story for wine. At least here in Italy. I have friends that are involved in wine and restaurant, and they says the same thing: there 's a twenty % of people who really knows what they are drinking, all the rest are new rich that simply ask for the most expensive wine. While in fact, there are good wine for an affordable price. In the last twenty/thirty years, there has been an increasing of prices, due to the increasing interest on wine and cuisine. Lot of people with a huge amount of money to spend, but without the necessary knowledge, that need time to learn and appreciate.

The Wine market has become like the art market. It's not made by the artists, it's made by the critics. And the critics are highly corruptible people most of the times.

 

[tomriddle]

Genuine rolexes from 1960 and older still beat fine. Their mechanical Genuine Swiss Hearts beat as strong as ever..

that is where the difference lies between genuine swiss and clones/fakes/reps.. some watches you get die within 2 months of using it.

there really is no threat or competition to be honest... and crisis? heck no

 

[Kerbus]

It’s so incredibly true about the way people dress. Here I am feeling overdressed nowadays for wearing a shirt with buttons and a collar. The past was so much better

 

[ciaoman21]

Rolex will continue to sell watches regardless of price because people will do anything to look good.

these people don't care about the movement inside their watch...

I consider Rolex to be the most accessible watchmaker (in the financial sense) of watches because we are far from the clientele of Patek or other very large luxury watch brands which will not reach Instagrammers.

Why do few people buy GRAND SEIKO which far surpass ROLEX in finish and movement...

because Rolex's marketing budget has for several years been a model of the kind that goes beyond the many sales methods, creating the desire to have a Rolex, and to sleep in your car...

 

[TerryRobot]

There are more than enough people out there with enough money to stay entirely within the AD/Genuine ecosystem and who would never even consider a rep. So IMHO, the rep industry, even with its visual accuracy and improvements to movements, will never have any noticeable impact on the Swiss watch industry monopoly. And that's all the gen manufacturers need. They don't need the secondary/secondhand market - which is where buyers will fall victim to watches that may have been contaminated with rep parts.

Have you tried asking an AD if you could please buy a Rolex sports watch? There's way, way more demand for gens through the authorised outlets than there is supply.

This is true, Im not so sure there is a crisis, part of owning the gen is that you know you bought it at that premium either earned or inherited. Many have more than enough cash to purchase the sought after model and litterally drop their trousers and pay more than double the price just to have something that others struggle to get their hands on or like myself just refuse to be held to ransom just because I cant get it at retail.
The same is said of cars now, the new Range Rover Sport is an example, all order allocations were gone long before it had even launched and they put the price up to add exclusivity and then contacted good customers to ad some prestige and sold the lot! As soon as some were delivered they were up for sale with a 40K markup! There were also people prepared to pay that!

Im sure reps do already break the sales figures over their gen counterparts but remeber there are lots of different factories all making the same products.
Rolex has always been and will always be a know brand and a status symbol to many, but for some of us we just like the items for ourselves.
I would bet that most of the BLRO's and Panda Daytonas you see out in the wild are rep's and probably quite a few not very good ones as most people dont really know the difference and think that the old ticking second hand is still a thing!

Also factor in all the Pagani homages for sale on Amazon unless sat very close these would be hard to tell they are not a Rolex across a room, and those exact watches sell for £100 ish max and are essentially a rep by all accounts but with no trade engraving or logos from the model they are copying so there is not infringment. (I'm sure there is but Rolex dont care as it doenst say their name).
The Pagani BLRO is pretty well made and if you swapped the dial for a Rolex branded one it would be hard to tell unless looking inside or taking the bracelet off. Its just the factories making use of their excess production but also as a way of hiding the rep side of the business as its actually making legtimate watches now!

Pagani are not stealing customers from Rolex at all, someone who spends £100 on a watch is unlikely to spend £10K on one or only buys the £100 one because they can get hold of a £10K one.

There is also the prestigue of stiing in an AD and having them suck up to you with some fresh coffee or Proseco when buying gen or even picking it up from a service, neither of which you get when order from a TD or through M2M on here. (no offence to the TD's or good peops on here).

The gen market is begining to level out a bit but is still highly priced. I remember seeing 0% Finance deals and buy on deposit deals in out local ad 25 years ago when they were still priced much hgher than peoples salaries. The only difference today is getting finance and instant gratification as is the way fo the work (we must all have it now! dont save and buy, borrow and pay off!)

There will be a lot of dealers non AD dropping prices of their stock as the market adjusts back down. which may trigger a bit of a sell off, this might make the dealer pricing only a little over the gen price but where the dealers actually have stock.

With watches being a target for stree muggings much more, there may be many more reps being sold alongside their gen counter parts so the wearer can still go out an about with that coveted look yet be happy to just hand it over if ever challenged whilst the gen one that is holding its value or increasing is sat safely in safe or deposit box somewhere, criminal that its not being worn I know.

High quality reps as often a good idea to get a feel for the watch and if you like, how does it wear, is it too flash, etc.... prior to buying a gen where each trade will lose far more than the rep will cost. I have done this in the past and will do again.

I dont think Rolex really care about the rep market as much as we think as it doesnt really effect their customer base. If you move in the circles of people who buy gen then you might get away with wearing a rep but most wont, as they can afford the geninune article so will just but buy it. A guy who can afford a 3.5 mill Sunseeker is unlikely to be so tight or stapped he would need to look at the rep market.

Also the rep market is actually quite hard work, knowing which one is best and all the tech knowledge needed to avoid buying a kipper!
I think its only really rep heads that are worried about hwo they look or if its ral or not where as most people just see a watch or see a flash watch and then move on, we all just want perfection but without the costs!

If Rolex did up production on sports models and cut back on the DJ's the dealers would have no choice but to lower prices, this doesnt really effect Rolex or it was a really clever move by them to shorten supply to drive up the second hand value market so they can then cash in on the used approved market!

Im sure they could increase production on sports but they must have an awful lot of people still wanting DJ's as that seems to be what nearly every AD has lots of!

 

[Flyingman]

There are more than enough people out there with enough money to stay entirely within the AD/Genuine ecosystem and who would never even consider a rep. So IMHO, the rep industry, even with its visual accuracy and improvements to movements, will never have any noticeable impact on the Swiss watch industry monopoly. And that's all the gen manufacturers need. They don't need the secondary/secondhand market - which is where buyers will fall victim to watches that may have been contaminated with rep parts.

Have you tried asking an AD if you could please buy a Rolex sports watch? There's way, way more demand for gens through the authorised outlets than there is supply

Genuine rolexes from 1960 and older still beat fine. Their mechanical Genuine Swiss Hearts beat as strong as ever..

that is where the difference lies between genuine swiss and clones/fakes/reps.. some watches you get die within 2 months of using it.

there really is no threat or competition to be honest... and crisis? heck no

No movement (rep og gen )just " dies " a rep movement usually "stops" beating because " dirt or fibers " stop it and most of the time is not oiled properly or over oiled or not at all for that matter ..the cheaper rep non clone movement ( in the 20-30 USD range )are 9 out 10 quite dirty from the get go .

As for the vintage rolexes... actually their Swiss heart usually do not have great amplitude at all.