Finally hope for a proper Moonwatch movement?!

[Procurator]

You do realise, that those numbers mean literally nothing, when it comes to China, yes?
The rep market is multiples of the gen size - nobody knows exactly how big - but you can rest assured its much much bigger.
It may give you some kind of general direction, but thats where the "analysis" ends.

Also, I personally know cases, where a product was reverse engineered, copied, tweaked a little, produced and sold for half the price, before the real thing even hit production.
If they want, they will.

 

[TheBigJS]

well, seems like the most popular watch brand in China is Omega

Omega don't release figures, the entire Swatch Group does but they don't provide a breakdown.
The Morgan Stanley report is an educated guess. All of it, Rolex release zero information regarding anything.

 

[bigplayer]

The fallacy was word so many people are going off of to speculate the demand for the market is "attainable" and "afford".

It's not a matter of if someone has the financial means to purchase a gen; it's a matter of they have a personal value in the watch equal to or higher than that of the seller's price tag. This is universal.

Last week I compiled my quarterly net worth which I started tracking about 8 years ago. According to that, I could buy dozens Omegas, submariners, and Daytona's. And yet, I won't.

I would love a gen, but I do not value the watch at $7,000. Or $5,000. Or even $3,000. To me, all analog watches are "cool to haves" that have proven to be less practical in almost every way then a $500 digital Garmin which tracks my sleep, runs, work outs, HR, at 80% less weight, and increased comfort.

So for me, I would love to pick up a perfect rep Omega for $500; because it's a cool looking impractical wrist toy. But I have zero desire to throw even $3,000 at a gen of it. If the gen was $1,500 then I would consider that route because it aligns more with my personal value when looking at long term depreciation loss after resale.

The point is; it's not a matter of "being able to afford" its a matter of "how much personal financial value do you place on the watch". And for every person, that number will be different. Just because for you, you place that number much higher, so you might go for gen (used or new); does not mean universally everyone feels that way. ELI5: There will be a market, even if you aren't part of it.

 

[TheBigJS]

I think I agree with a lot of that, I could absolutely sell some reps and buy a gen Speedmaster, and I've had both black and white OMF Speedy reps, which I had the 6pm dial frozen on and eventually sold because although I don't mind telling people I wear reps, I didn't like the fact they were obviously reps.
But I did love the watches. And I said at the time I'd like a gen.
But I can have one! Probably by selling rep watches I haven't worn for months and rarely wear.
So do I (like @bigplayer ) have a limit on what I'll spend on a watch?
With reps I'm around the £750 mark max for one rep (Daytona or GMT with a Deep crystal?)
I don't think anything on a VSF Sub is worth going gen.

Hmmm, some thinking required!

But IMHO this mythical Speedy rep will be $1000 + (the dev costs of the 4130 have long since been recouped and it's a huge seller) and you can get gen (reduced) for not a lot more which may put people off investing in the project.
And I know more than on MoonSwatch owner who'd love Moonwatch but won't pony up the cash and wouldn't wear a rep even if it was perfect.

I just don't think it makes commercial sense.
The available rep is a nice watch, but not a popular one.
The gen isn't big money.
There are multiple legitimate alternatives.

 

[Jossé]

I think I agree with a lot of that, I could absolutely sell some reps and buy a gen Speedmaster, and I've had both black and white OMF Speedy reps, which I had the 6pm dial frozen on and eventually sold because although I don't mind telling people I wear reps, I didn't like the fact they were obviously reps.
But I did love the watches. And I said at the time I'd like a gen.
But I can have one! Probably by selling rep watches I haven't worn for months and rarely wear.
So do I (like @bigplayer ) have a limit on what I'll spend on a watch?
With reps I'm around the £750 mark max for one rep (Daytona or GMT with a Deep crystal?)
I don't think anything on a VSF Sub is worth going gen.

Hmmm, some thinking required!

But IMHO this mythical Speedy rep will be $1000 + (the dev costs of the 4130 have long since been recouped and it's a huge seller) and you can get gen (reduced) for not a lot more which may put people off investing in the project.
And I know more than on MoonSwatch owner who'd love Moonwatch but won't pony up the cash and wouldn't wear a rep even if it was perfect.

I just don't think it makes commercial sense.
The available rep is a nice watch, but not a popular one.
The gen isn't big money.
There are multiple legitimate alternatives.

This movement just keeps getting more and more expensive with every comment All of this is just speculation and doesn’t really contribute much other than stirring up the masses tbh.

Let’s just wait and see, if nothing else - we’re allowed to hope

 

[trailboss99]

I think there is very little chance considering Speedmaster is very attainable used or new. It’s not an overpriced overhyped watch like the Daytona.

Nice of you to think everyone has a spare 6k lying around. I don't.

 

[trailboss99]

You can’t argue with retarded people man..

Mate, you have been here long enough to know we don't use that word.