My wrist is 17,8cm and the 16202 is on the boarder of being too large for me IMHO.
The bracelet is just a little bit too long for my liking so I might put a piece of thin foam rubber at the bottom.
This I already did with my gen Rxs which never seem to fit perfectly on my rather small wrist.
I was also thinking about buying the AP 15450, but the case is to thick for my liking.
Would the 15450 be as thin as the 16202 I would have bought the former.
fwiw, it has been said that it is not really the wrist size, it is really the flatness of the wrist. You have a pretty average size wrist, 7inch and a 41mm should even fit properly if you have a flatter wrist! I have a flat 6.3 inch wrist and a 15202 fits nicely. Have not tried 16202.
as for the 15450 I think you may love it, you are correct it is THICKER than the 16202 but you really do not feel it. The Jumbo is really thin, and the 15450 has some thickness but the smaller case really fits nicely, I would say close to a Daytona (Daytona wears a tad bigger, plus you have the start/stop buttons which make it feel bigger) the thickness of a 15450 is no different than a typical Rolex