“Believability Quotient†- an interesting idea, maybe…

[braith7]

This is something that I have been wondering about and decided to put this together for my own interest but thought someone out there might also be interested… or not. It could serve as a sort-of answer to the “What’s the best PAM model to get?†question for some people.

I think there is more to the believability of a rep than just the quality and accuracy of the rep, the wearer of the watch is more likely to give it away than the rep itself if its not the right fit. For instance - What are the chances that the 20 year old working the desk at the gym owns a $30,700 watch, which is one of only 500 made? And if he did, would he wear it to work? OK, extreme example but you get my point.

Before I go on, it needs to be said that all of this is moot for most of us who just like what we like, and don’t care about what others think, and it doesn’t take personal preferences into account at all. That being said, on we go…

I thought it would be interesting to look at the price of models along with the exclusivity (or lack of it) and get a feel for which models are most likely to be seen in (my) normal life. It’s a pretty random method but I think it works out pretty well - So I took the number of units made of that model and divided it by the price of the model – then multiply that number by a number representing the level of quality of the rep available for that model (pulled from ALE’s Reference Guide – see below for values) - then finally multiplied that by 100 to clean things up. The result is a number - the larger the better. (or the opposite if you are looking to impress and ready to lie through your teeth )

Rep Quality Values

Super	1
1st Class Very High	0.9
1st Class High	0.8
1st Class Med	0.7
1st Class Low	0.6
Very Good	0.5
Quite Good	0.4
Good / Med	0.3
Decent	0.2
Low	0.1
No Rep Avail.	0

An example

If your watch of choice isnt on this list below because its not in production this year, you can work it out for yourself if you have the price, total units made, and ALE's rating -

My 196, for instance. Its no longer in production so I will work with a second hand market price of $7000 (rough average of mint examples on chrono24 when I looked), and I know 3700 were produced, and ALE has given the 2013 Noob version a 1st Class Medium rating. So...

[(3700 / 7000)*0.7]*100 = 37

That seems like a really low number , but dont see my 196 as being unbelievable. There are a few on chrono24 for sale so its not like someone like me couldnt get my hands on one, and while $7k is a ton of money to me, its probably the very upper limit of what I could imagine myself spending on a watch (Ive always intended to get a watch to rival the value of my wife's engagement ring ).

So maybe this works on a bell curve type curve with a sharp drop off at the end... Im not sure. As many have pointed out, its about the wearer, the situation, etc.

Couple of things to point out first -

- This list is not complete, I built it using the Price List for 2013 models posted by mvyzfr1, which only lists the current production models. There are lots of other good reps to choose from that would probably score well in this system but don’t appear here as they aren’t in production anymore.
- I got the yearly totals from Paneristi, which apparently aren’t complete as there were no totals for “O†year. This resulted in some zero results as some models stated zero units made. I cut them from the list.
- There aren’t reps for a fair few of the models (at least not covered in ALE’s Reference Guide) on the Price List mvyzfr1 posted, so Ive cut them from the list.

So here it is in order, in the context of this exercise at least, from most “believable†to least.

Reference #	Price	Rep Quality	Rep Value	Rep "BQ" Score	Total Made	Pre-A	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	J	K	L	M	N	O
PAM00104	$7,400	Super	1	293	21700	0	0	0	0	0	4000	3800	2600	3300	4000	4000	0	0	0	0
PAM00111	$6,800	Super	1	257	17500	0	0	0	0	0	3500	4000	2000	2000	2500	3500	0	0	0	0
PAM00088	$8,400	Super	1	221	18600	0	0	0	0	2500	3000	2200	2000	2900	3000	3000	0	0	0	0
PAM00048	$7,300	Good / Med	0.3	168	41000	0	0	4000	5000	7000	5000	6500	1900	2000	2500	2300	2300	1000	1500
PAM00112	$6,300	Super	1	148	9300	0	0	0	0	0	1200	1700	1200	1200	1500	2500	0	0	0	0
PAM00005	$5,300	Super	1	147	7800	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1000	1200	1600	1100	1200	500	1200
PAM00000	$4,900	Super	1	145	7100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	500	800	1100	900	1300	1000	1500
PAM00049	$7,300	Good / Med	0.3	139	33900	0	0	4000	5000	7000	5000	6500	1000	1000	1000	1200	1200	500	500
PAM00164	$7,400	Super	1	139	10300	0	0	0	0	0	0	3800	1000	1500	2000	2000	0	0	0	0
PAM00024	$7,700	Very Good	0.5	120	18500	0	1500	1500	1500	2500	2500	1500	800	1100	1500	1300	1000	1000	800
PAM00113	$6,800	1st Class Med	0.7	103	10000	0	0	0	0	0	3500	4000	700	1000	800	0	0	0	0	0
PAM00312	$8,300	1st Very High	0.9	92	8500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2000	2500	4000
PAM00090	$8,700	1st Class Low	0.6	83	12100	0	0	0	0	2500	2000	1500	1400	2200	2500	0	0	0	0	0
PAM00183	$6,700	1st Class High	0.8	72	6000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1500	1500	1500	1500	0	0	0	0
PAM00025	$8,400	Quite Good	0.4	59	12300	0	1500	1500	500	2500	2500	400	300	500	500	500	500	500	600
PAM00114	$6,300	1st Class Med	0.7	50	4500	0	0	0	0	0	1200	1700	400	700	500	0	0	0	0	0
PAM00029	$8,300	Super	1	48	4000	0	1500	1500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1000	0
PAM00380	$4,700	1st Very High	0.9	48	2500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2500
PAM00210	$6,300	1st Class High	0.8	44	3500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1500	1500	500	0	0	0	0
PAM00176	$6,800	Super	1	40	2700	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	400	800	800	700	0	0	0	0
PAM00320	$9,700	1st Class High	0.8	37	4500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1500	3000
PAM00390	$5,400	Super	1	37	2000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2000	0
PAM00177	$7,300	Super	1	37	2700	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	500	900	800	500	0	0	0	0
PAM00299	$8,400	Super	1	30	2500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2000	0	500
PAM00359	$8,300	1st Class High	0.8	29	3000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3000
PAM00297	$9,400	Super	1	21	2000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1200	300	500
PAM00372	$10,400	1st Class Low	0.6	20	3500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3500
PAM00219	$7,300	1st Very High	0.9	14	1100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	500	200	400	0	0	0	0
PAM00328	$8,900	1st Class High	0.8	13	1500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1000	500
PAM00351	$8,900	1st Class High	0.8	13	1500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1500
PAM00305	$9,900	1st Class Low	0.6	12	2000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1000	1000
PAM00292	$9,600	Super	1	10	1000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1000	0	0	0	0
PAM00329	$10,400	1st Class Med	0.7	7	1000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	500	500
PAM00339	$15,800	Decent	0.2	2	1500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1500	0
PAM00233	$14,900	Low	0.1	2	2500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1500	1000	0	0	0	0
PAM00382	$11,600	Low	0.1	1	1000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1000	0

And lastly, as others have said, and I agree - most people dont notice watches or dont know enough to tell anyway.

I think the 80/20 rule applies - With a sample group of 100 people, 80 people wont notice your watch at all, 20 will. Of that 20, 10 will notice it but say nothing, 5 might ask but know much the brand, 3 will know the brand generally and be impressed with your watch, 2 will know all about it and want to look at it in detail - 1 of those 2 might know enough to pick it as a rep (Im assuming a kick arse Super Rep for this example).

So does any of this matter? Take it as you will. I just wanted to play it out to see the results.

 

[zocker4711]

Not Bad idea

But why aren´t have for exsample the "PAM00111" any Build of the Model Number N ???
That would mean that the Noob Factory has Build all Model Number wrong?!

Or did i understand something wrong?

For exsample the Noob PAM111 has Nxxxx/2500

 

[Ciccio_started_it]

Great post! You put into words and numbers what I've been wrestling with in my mind while considering which PAM I want to pick up. Been lusting over the Fiddy, but I also roll in circles where it could get recognized on my wrist, and, putting aside believability, I wouldn't want people to think I was carrying 30 extra large on my wrist.


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[C5000]

Could you post this with the rep score and totals next to the model # so you can see those together w/o scrolling back and forth?

Very cool idea, and I think statistically valid...puts a number on a very subjective topic. My 292 didn't fare so well, but 111 not so bad. If you put this in the context of walking down the street in Beverly Hills where people knew about and could afford watches (a mythical context where one could be "called out") you get some idea of believability in your rep, given that you otherwise looked the part.

 

[NCchef]

Most common people don't even know what Panerai is. Someone asked me the other day how much a watch like mine cost...then they gussed $300-400. I laughed and said entry level is about $4000 and goes up over $100k.... then watched them choke on their coffee. He said he could a Rolex for that kind of money and people would know what it was...nuff said.

Panerai is beauty in the eye of the wearer. I assume everyone is wearing a rep these days because of the economy!

 

[braith7]

Not Bad idea

But why aren´t have for exsample the "PAM00111" any Build of the Model Number N ???
That would mean that the Noob Factory has Build all Model Number wrong?!

Or did i understand something wrong?

For exsample the Noob PAM111 has Nxxxx/2500

Yeah, unfortunately the numbers aren't complete which takes the wind out of the sail a bit. If somebody has more accurate numbers Id be happy to update. I could start going through all of ALEs comparison threads updating numbers but I dont think I would get all the answers needed and end up spending way too much time

(Even without doing this exercise, I think its safe to say the 111 is one of the most believable models)

Could you post this with the rep score and totals next to the model # so you can see those together w/o scrolling back and forth?

Very cool idea, and I think statistically valid...puts a number on a very subjective topic. My 292 didn't fare so well, but 111 not so bad. If you put this in the context of walking down the street in Beverly Hills where people knew about and could afford watches (a mythical context where one could be "called out") you get some idea of believability in your rep, given that you otherwise looked the part.

I've re-organised it now - I didn't realize it wouldn't fit across the screen. Should be easier to read now.

Most common people don't even know what Panerai is. Someone asked me the other day how much a watch like mine cost...then they gussed $300-400. I laughed and said entry level is about $4000 and goes up over $100k.... then watched them choke on their coffee. He said he could a Rolex for that kind of money and people would know what it was...nuff said.

Panerai is beauty in the eye of the wearer. I assume everyone is wearing a rep these days because of the economy!

Yeah, I totally agree. I meant to say in my OP that, as many others have pointed out and I have said too, most people wont notice your watch, most of those that do wont know anything about Panerai, those that do probably wont know enough to say one way or the other anyway.

Also, as far as crazy expensive gens go, if you wanted to look like a big shot, and make sure the most people possible knew it, yeah you probably would buy a Rolex... but thats a bit wanky isnt it I think its cooler to have something just as good that only the initiated know about.

 

[ALE7575]

This is an interesting idea and I am always saying people about the believability of a rep when they are asking for advice about Platinum, gold or high complication replicas.

In my opinion this is not a ratio to avoid the current evaluation, people are always looking for high accuracy grade replicas, but a complementary interesting info to bear in mind.

Just be careful with production quantities in millesimation because, the source you have used, most likely paneristi.com, is indicating "0" for many watches which are in production like PAM 111 or PAM 112 (as previously said by zocker 47119)

Nice idea and you could continue elaborating a BQ list for all available replicas.

Just, I would like, if possible, to change the factors of quotient to get a bigger number for replicas of bigger believability. It would be more intuitive.

Congrats for the idea

ALE

 

[braith7]

This is an interesting idea and I am always saying people about the believability of a rep when they are asking for advice about Platinum, gold or high complication replicas.

In my opinion this is not a ratio to avoid the current evaluation, people are always looking for high accuracy grade replicas, but a complementary interesting info to bear in mind.

Just be careful with production quantities in millesimation because, the source you have used, most likely paneristi.com, is indicating "0" for many watches which are in production like PAM 111 or PAM 112 (as previously said by zocker 47119)

Nice idea and you could continue elaborating a BQ list for all available replicas.

Just, I would like, if possible, to change the factors of quotient to get a bigger number for replicas of bigger believability. It would be more intuitive.

Congrats for the idea

ALE

Yeah, the Paneristi millesimation is not up to date - if someone has better details Id be happy to update.

Id be happy to update to include all available reps - but I would need their RRP and millesimation details - would be good if everyone could contribute any info they have.

Done - I have updated to have the larger the BQ the better. The formula is now Total Made divided by Price, times by Rep Value, times by 100 (just to bring the values up to a more intuitive range)

 

[C5000]

Thanks for your work on this...it puts the knowledge of this place into perspective...it's really the 3rd standard deviation we are talking about here...and even farther out when you are talking about timepieces with big $$ and limited production...Blancpain, Patek, IWC, Richard Mille...insert favorite brands...

 

[bradj]

Also, as far as crazy expensive gens go, if you wanted to look like a big shot, and make sure the most people possible knew it, yeah you probably would buy a Rolex... but thats a bit wanky isnt it I think its cooler to have something just as good that only the initiated know about.

I think having a watch that only watch nerds know about is pretty dumb. If I'm gonna drop $5k - $XXXXk I surely want people to know what its worth. Otherwise I'll wear my skx007 if I want to wear a good watch and not care what others think.

If you are concerned about the believably of the watch you are wearing.. then its out of your league plain and simple.

 

[braith7]

I think having a watch that only watch nerds know about is pretty dumb. If I'm gonna drop $5k - $XXXXk I surely want people to know what its worth. Otherwise I'll wear my skx007 if I want to wear a good watch and not care what others think.

If you are concerned about the believably of the watch you are wearing.. then its out of your league plain and simple.

Ok, fair enough. Thats a personal preference we can agree to disagree on - we are from pretty different cultures after all.

 

[Ciccio_started_it]

I think having a watch that only watch nerds know about is pretty dumb. If I'm gonna drop $5k - $XXXXk I surely want people to know what its worth. Otherwise I'll wear my skx007 if I want to wear a good watch and not care what others think.

If you are concerned about the believably of the watch you are wearing.. then its out of your league plain and simple.

Sorry, don't really understand what you're trying to say here. If you "drop" 5k+ on a watch, then you'd want people to know it was worth that much, right? So if you're going to buy a rep, aren't you naturally going to care about being spotted with a fake? Doesn't believability of the watch itself go hand in hand with buying a good rep?

I understand what you're saying in the first part, but when you say being concerned about the believability of the watch makes the watch out of your league, you lose me. Either you care what others think or you don't. If you do, then you're naturally going to be concerned about the quality and believability of your rep. I don't understand how caring about that puts a watch "out of your league"


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[digital]

Interesting exercise and thanks for the effort.

 

[ThinkBachs]

I think having a watch that only watch nerds know about is pretty dumb. If I'm gonna drop $5k - $XXXXk I surely want people to know what its worth. Otherwise I'll wear my skx007 if I want to wear a good watch and not care what others think.

If you are concerned about the believably of the watch you are wearing.. then its out of your league plain and simple.

 

[mysterio]

It's interesting but although you mentioned it in your OP, your believability quotient doesn't take the wearer into consideration, and that's a big factor. A watch that's believable on a 30-year old management position in a large company might not be on a 20-year old manning the desk at the local gym. That's why some of the membership here only buy reps (and usually super reps) of watches they could afford as gen. People around them wouldn't even think they were wearing anything other than a genuine watch.

That thinking comes into play into my understanding of what brad said. If you have to wonder/worry if the rep on your wrist is believable by those around you, then the gen is out of your league and it will show.

 

[Poring]

I concur that the biggest factor would be the wearer.

...only buy reps (and usually super reps) of watches they could afford as gen.

But isn't this the whole point of the scale though? To gauge where you stand and what you can get away with? This is something only you would know and with all the models available, the chart helps to put it in better perspective (especially for someone new to the brand). I mean, I can easily get away with a PAM 111, in fact, my friends would have had a hard time believing that I'm sporting a rep. But if I were to suddenly be seen wearing the highly recognizable limited edition PAM 382 that can only be procured on secondary markets at upwards of $25,000 (which is what could've happened if there was a super rep and I didn't know the brand any better), now that would raise some suspicions.

That brings us to another point, TS. If a watch is no longer being produced, wouldn't it be more accurate to factor in the current average market value instead of it's original retail price?

 

[mysterio]

You must have a lot of Risti friends (the only people I would expect to recognize the PAM382 bronzo, never mind knowing how much it retails for, much less in the second hand market).

 

[braith7]

It's interesting but although you mentioned it in your OP, your believability quotient doesn't take the wearer into consideration, and that's a big factor. A watch that's believable on a 30-year old management position in a large company might not be on a 20-year old manning the desk at the local gym. That's why some of the membership here only buy reps (and usually super reps) of watches they could afford as gen. People around them wouldn't even think they were wearing anything other than a genuine watch.

That thinking comes into play into my understanding of what brad said. If you have to wonder/worry if the rep on your wrist is believable by those around you, then the gen is out of your league and it will show.

Thats totally right and was my original intention but I guess I didn't explain it properly and it got lost. It is all about the wearer and what would seem plausible in their life to them and the people around them (assuming that anyone around them knows anything about watches, Panerai, and the price / exclusivity of them). I think its up to the individual to decide how far down the list they can go before crossing over to "No way that's real!" territory. And there's more to it than just income - type of lifestyle, circles you travel in, what kind of situations you wear it in, etc etc. I think the same guy who feels he could just get away with wearing his 111 to work might also be comfortable wearing his 372 to a wedding or black tie event etc.

I understood (and agreed with) Brad's second statement to mean - "If you dont think you can pull it off, no one else will either."

But isn't this the whole point of the scale though? To gauge where you stand and what you can get away with? This is something only you would know and with all the models available, the chart helps to put it in better perspective (especially for someone new to the brand). I mean, I can easily get away with a PAM 111, in fact, my friends would have had a hard time believing that I'm sporting a rep. But if I were to suddenly be seen wearing the highly recognizable limited edition PAM 382 that can only be procured on secondary markets at upwards of $25,000 (which is what could've happened if there was a super rep and I didn't know the brand any better), now that would raise some suspicions.

Yes, this ^^^^^^

That brings us to another point, TS. If a watch is no longer being produced, wouldn't it be more accurate to factor in the current average market value instead of it's original retail price?

Yes, I guess so, but whos to say when you bought it, unless you are actually showing it to people as "your new watch" and giving them a story about how it came to be yours etc... Personally I wouldnt feel comfortable doing this no matter how believable you watch / story is, I go by more of a "dont ask - dont tell" slash "ask - tell" rule of thumb - and as we keep saying very few people ask.

Different prices, deals and second hand market prices etc are another reason why its probably just an interesting concept / discussion point as opposed to a rock solid list to live by.

 

[Ciccio_started_it]

It's interesting but although you mentioned it in your OP, your believability quotient doesn't take the wearer into consideration, and that's a big factor. A watch that's believable on a 30-year old management position in a large company might not be on a 20-year old manning the desk at the local gym. That's why some of the membership here only buy reps (and usually super reps) of watches they could afford as gen. People around them wouldn't even think they were wearing anything other than a genuine watch.

That thinking comes into play into my understanding of what brad said. If you have to wonder/worry if the rep on your wrist is believable by those around you, then the gen is out of your league and it will show.

Thanks, you "Rosetta stone"'d brad's post a bit for me.

The believability quotient of the wearer can only, in mathematical terms, always be "x". There are just too many economic variabilities out there to say person A would never be able to afford a gen while person B could. Taking, for example, our forelorned 20 year old manning the local gym - the 30ish guy who works the desk at my gym could wear a 20k pam, and I wouldn't bat an eye. That's because I know he's from a very wealthy family, and the only reason he's working at the gym is because he likes being there in his spare time while trying to become a movie producer. Completely impossible to quantify that situation, at least in mathematical terms.


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[ThinkBachs]

You guys are over thinking this whole thing.

What about the person wearing it?
-If that person wasn't made in the factory, and isn't a part of that watch, then you're over thinking things.

What if it's out of production?
-1 or 100,00....... that doesn't change the believability factor. If it were produced by virgins, would that make any difference in its believability? Oompa Loompa's? Unicorns? Fairies?

What if it cost me $300? $500 $750?????
-Has nothing to do with the chart! Does it magically change the watch in some way if you pay extra for it? What you pay does not relate to quality, never has, never will.

Why didn't you factor into your chart my sexy cousin? What if I let my hot 1st cousin (hot because she's #1 WOOT!) wear the watch, how does that change the BF???
-OMG. I understand that your mom was also a 1st cousin, I'm just glad you didn't say sister.

I produced some videos of my sister wearing the watch in the shower, does pron make it more believable?
-Holy shiiiiiiit.

These things are like trying to factor into the 316F Vs 316L stainless steel debate what shoes the wearer has on: ratty canvas or patten leather? If you're still conflicted about the intention of the work above, then multiply the BF number of your favorite Pam by zero and there's the number that will work for you.