Intraday : Dow Indu had a hard time staying above 9000, and S&P futures having a hard time staying above 950. S&P's and Russell 2k much broader indices than the Dow. The Dow is the pop culture index. Crude futures hovering slightly above $72 at this time.
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The Fakey Finance Channel
- Thread starter fakemaster
- Start date
S&P testing 900 (and Dow testing 8500) for the third time. Should be a very interesting day tomorrow. This time around financials are much weaker compared to the last time the indices tested these levels, S&P/Dow making bearish pennant formations from the beginning of the month. And despite tightening credits spreads, it seems the treasury yield curve has flattened big time. People are scared enough to buy longer bonds despite the gazillions of new issuance that will be needed for the govt bailout/rescue.
- 30/3/08
- 43,757
- 18,572
- 113
Crude tanked again but petrol doesn't seem to be geting any cheaper. Not here anyways. Our dollar is well under 70us cents as well. Down 30 or so in the space of a few weeks. Not good for rep prices here.
Col.
Col.
R2D4 said:So what do you guys do for a living? I mean that as a compliment BTW. What's a good buy for stocks right now? (not intended to be a "who has the best sub" comment)
R2, I am a full time equities trader, it isn't a side job for me. I hate to sound so gloomy, but I never recommend any stocks to anyone. There may be some good buys right now, or maybe not. Valuations are tough to go buy right now, because i honestly feel no one can really make an honest earnings projection because of uncertainty. Although some are anyway. The only advice I will give, and I give the same advice to people when the markets are healthier, is do not invest anything that you cannot afford to lose. And do not invest any amount that will make you lose any sleep. Also, be prepared to do independant research, most analysts are late to the party with their ratings. Good luck!
Looks I was off by a day as to which one would be interesting. It's rare that the US markets take its cue from Asia/Europe. The last time that happened was back in January when the S&P made a "low" below 1300 and the Fed did its intermeeting rate cut. Despite the market coming back, I'd still have to see S&P/Dow close today above 900/8500 to keep any confidence. Otherwise, I'd be looking to see Fakey's 700 handle on the S&P.
As far as stocks, I'm kind of operating blind right now not having access to Bloomberg/FactSet. I like to throw out "tips" just to get an exchange of ideas going. You probably already know this, but be very careful about stocks or trading ideas that I or anyone else might mention. That person might have a greater risk tolerance than you. You might not know the basis of their recommendation..maybe it's just from their broker or from a shoeshine guy. Maybe they might be witnessing the strong growth on the business side, but they might be oblivious to the stock having priced in even greater growth rates already. They might have a brilliant investment thesis on the stock, but it might change significantly enough for them to change their mind, but they might not necessarily let you know. Never trade on a "tip" unless you're willing to take full ownership of it. You have to know how much you're willing to put in, where to get out, be it on the plus or minus side, and what news is important to your position. Having said all that, I actually like financials right now. There's still a whole lot of uncertainty due to where to price their holdings of mortgage-backed derivatives, but I think that once price discovery returns to that market, they'll be found to be trading below book values.
I lost my job last month doing due diligence on investment managers/hedge funds. Also have a background in f/x research. Know anyone hiring?
As far as stocks, I'm kind of operating blind right now not having access to Bloomberg/FactSet. I like to throw out "tips" just to get an exchange of ideas going. You probably already know this, but be very careful about stocks or trading ideas that I or anyone else might mention. That person might have a greater risk tolerance than you. You might not know the basis of their recommendation..maybe it's just from their broker or from a shoeshine guy. Maybe they might be witnessing the strong growth on the business side, but they might be oblivious to the stock having priced in even greater growth rates already. They might have a brilliant investment thesis on the stock, but it might change significantly enough for them to change their mind, but they might not necessarily let you know. Never trade on a "tip" unless you're willing to take full ownership of it. You have to know how much you're willing to put in, where to get out, be it on the plus or minus side, and what news is important to your position. Having said all that, I actually like financials right now. There's still a whole lot of uncertainty due to where to price their holdings of mortgage-backed derivatives, but I think that once price discovery returns to that market, they'll be found to be trading below book values.
OCTOBER 24, 2008 ENERGY CLOSING BELL REPORT:
Crude oil fell as much as $5.19, or 7.7 percent, to $62.65 a barrel at the close of trading today. This puts us on target with my prediction of $60 a barrel oil for mid November deliveries. Also well on it's way to my predicted $50 by December. Sadly as I have mentioned, the price of gasoline should aready be at $2.00 yet it is still far off. By the time December rolls around we should be paying somewhere around $1.70. somehow I doubt that benchmark will ever be reached either.
Crude oil fell as much as $5.19, or 7.7 percent, to $62.65 a barrel at the close of trading today. This puts us on target with my prediction of $60 a barrel oil for mid November deliveries. Also well on it's way to my predicted $50 by December. Sadly as I have mentioned, the price of gasoline should aready be at $2.00 yet it is still far off. By the time December rolls around we should be paying somewhere around $1.70. somehow I doubt that benchmark will ever be reached either.
fakemaster said:
Back home in MA - ppl are getting gas for around 2.50 - 2.30 ...
Here in upstate NY ... still @ 3.40
- Ex
- 30/3/08
- 43,757
- 18,572
- 113
Try having to pay $1.45 to $1.65 a litre (3.75 to the US gallon). And I do 'round 800 Kms a week.
Col.
Col.
Trailboss - for a while it was around 4.50 up here..
That being said:
Dropped to 3.20 - 2.99 This morning.
let the good times roll !
My cell - verizon, has a hacked version of vznavigator (a surprisingly accurate gps program for your cellphone) one of the cool features (which there are tons of) , is the ability to say find me. then find cheapest gas stations around me. pick with one you think is the most reasonable then it dives u directions to it.
Very cool, very useful gps system and... free (one time $10 fee, which if you really feel the need you can get wiped off your bill easily).. (also includes real time: traffic updates, weather, construction and detours)
- Ex
That being said:
Dropped to 3.20 - 2.99 This morning.
let the good times roll !
My cell - verizon, has a hacked version of vznavigator (a surprisingly accurate gps program for your cellphone) one of the cool features (which there are tons of) , is the ability to say find me. then find cheapest gas stations around me. pick with one you think is the most reasonable then it dives u directions to it.
Very cool, very useful gps system and... free (one time $10 fee, which if you really feel the need you can get wiped off your bill easily).. (also includes real time: traffic updates, weather, construction and detours)
- Ex
There seems to be a big discrepancy in gas pricing in my area. Gas stations would typically be within 25 cents of each other, but I'm seeing a difference of as much as 80 cents a gallon (premium at 2.59 vs 3.39), with those two gas stations being just a couple miles away from each other. I wonder if some gas stations still stuck with higher-priced gas are refusing to take a loss on their existing inventory until it gets sold.
This is a list of some of the completed and planned corporate layoffs:
Whirlpool to cut 5,000 jobs by end of 2009
Yahoo will drop 1,500 employees
Pepsico will cut 3,300 jobs by the end of 2008
Merck will be eliminating 7,200 positions
Goldman Sachs will be cutting 3,260 jobs
HP wil be laying off 25,000 workers
National City Corp is cutting 4,000 jobs
Zeros will cut 3,000 jobs over the next 6 months
Ebay will be canning 3,200 of it's staff
Chrysler will be cutting 1,825 jobs
GM will cut 20% of it's 43,000 workforce
Regarding Ebay. I said months ago that their new rating structure would hirt them. And it has to the tune of a 19% drop in value. They're also losing their asses on Skype.
The Chrysler GM situation is really ticking me off. Apparently they are both going to be broke withing the next three months. Looks like the Governemt may be giving them $25 Billion so they can merge. I think they should let them die if they can't run their businesses right.
Whirlpool to cut 5,000 jobs by end of 2009
Yahoo will drop 1,500 employees
Pepsico will cut 3,300 jobs by the end of 2008
Merck will be eliminating 7,200 positions
Goldman Sachs will be cutting 3,260 jobs
HP wil be laying off 25,000 workers
National City Corp is cutting 4,000 jobs
Zeros will cut 3,000 jobs over the next 6 months
Ebay will be canning 3,200 of it's staff
Chrysler will be cutting 1,825 jobs
GM will cut 20% of it's 43,000 workforce
Regarding Ebay. I said months ago that their new rating structure would hirt them. And it has to the tune of a 19% drop in value. They're also losing their asses on Skype.
The Chrysler GM situation is really ticking me off. Apparently they are both going to be broke withing the next three months. Looks like the Governemt may be giving them $25 Billion so they can merge. I think they should let them die if they can't run their businesses right.
Exxon Mobil has shattered its own record for the biggest profit from operations by a U.S. corporation, earning $14.83 billion in the third quarter. Benchmark oil prices fell another $2.21 to $65.29 Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, about 56% percent off record highs in July.
What's really funny is that just one month ago they said they had been losing money due to declining cride prices. So much that they were going to have to cut back on exploration. where do they get this shit and why does anyone believe it? If the price structutre of gas isdirectly related to the price of crude as they say then the priofit margin per gallon would be the same whtherr it was bought at $60 or $70. So if they are were making less as a result then it would be an acknowledgement that they were sscalping us the whole time. Assholes.
What's really funny is that just one month ago they said they had been losing money due to declining cride prices. So much that they were going to have to cut back on exploration. where do they get this shit and why does anyone believe it? If the price structutre of gas isdirectly related to the price of crude as they say then the priofit margin per gallon would be the same whtherr it was bought at $60 or $70. So if they are were making less as a result then it would be an acknowledgement that they were sscalping us the whole time. Assholes.
NOVEMBER 7, 2008 ENERGY CLOSING BELL REPORT:
Light, sweet crude fell 7 percent, or $4.53, to settle at $60.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. mid November deliveries are projected to be $61.31, a level last seen in March 2007. This was based on reactions to retail sales reports showing the weakest levels since 1969, the number of Americans continuing to draw unemployment benefits surging to a 25-year high and the ever strengthening dollar.
You might recall something I said back on October 17th.
My projection was that oil for Mid November deliveries would be at $61.47. It is now $61.31. I was $.16 cents off. Man I am good. 8)
Light, sweet crude fell 7 percent, or $4.53, to settle at $60.77 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. mid November deliveries are projected to be $61.31, a level last seen in March 2007. This was based on reactions to retail sales reports showing the weakest levels since 1969, the number of Americans continuing to draw unemployment benefits surging to a 25-year high and the ever strengthening dollar.
You might recall something I said back on October 17th.
My projection was that oil for Mid November deliveries would be at $61.47. It is now $61.31. I was $.16 cents off. Man I am good. 8)
fakemaster said:
SEE FAKEY - THANKS TO OBAMA, EVERYTHING IMPROVES ALREADY TREMENDOUSLY !! GREAT !
2008 ENERGY REPORT UPDATE:
Since my last report light, sweet crude has fallen 8.5 percent, or $5.17, closing Friday at $55.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Early December deliveries are projected to be $53.07 which is right on target with my mid/late December projection of around $50.00. This was primariliy blamed on Japan announcing it's economy has entered a recession. Since I saw all this coming about six years ago the Japanese economy couldn't have neything to do with it. But they didn't have anything else to blame it on so what can you do.
In other news Presiident at Large Obama is pushinng for a 50 bilion dollar auto bailout rather than the propesed 25. Or should I say 50 billion dollar FIRST payment. His hopes are that the majority of it (30 Billion) will go to Chrylsler who while claiming they are suffering the worst in the auto industry (which is a lie), just gave out 30 million in QUARTERLY bonuses to its top executives Friday.
Personally I think that the automakers whuld not only be allowed to fail, but they should not be given bankruptcy protection in the same way that responsible companies are. Chrysler and GM only have themselves to blame for what has occured. Chrysler makes a higher proportion of trucks than any other automaker. They dropped 1.4 bilion to redesign the minivan (a vehicle that was destined to become defunct) in the middle of a gas crisis. And when they redesigned it they dropped the short wheelbase model which was their most popular seller. GM has continued to introduce several new SUV models over the last six years. Between the two of them they have managed to bring out almost a dozen new gas guzzlers and eliminate even more models that were fuel efficiant and profitable. All when they knew an economic meltdown was inevitable. And now Chrysler is stopping production at its minivan plant, in suburban St. Louis and shifting all production to Ontario CANADA, effectively eliminating thousands of jobs from the economy of the country it wants to bail it out. GM is dong ths same by shifting production to many of it's Mexican plants. I say let them burn.
All in all this is just the beginning of another typical liberal tax and spend some more money on it policy. With the new regime actually being the old regime just empowered a little more continuing into January, Obama and Pelosi have already begun plans to increase the corporate stimulus packages which is alread 750 billion by another HALF A TRILLION. Sadly since they're not planning on addressing the actual problem it will only be a piss poor waste of money...my money...your money. And citing the increase of the savings rate from 1.1 to 2.3 percent he would like to see any personal tax rebates neutralized if not neutered in the new session and shift that money to increased outlays on roads, bridges and other infrastructure. And they are reassuring people that though they do not have any way to ensure the states will spend the monies the way they are meant to be that the they wil cut spending and NOT use the money to make up for any shortfall in tax revenues.
[think:3u0k2fez]RMFAOL![/think:3u0k2fez]
Since my last report light, sweet crude has fallen 8.5 percent, or $5.17, closing Friday at $55.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Early December deliveries are projected to be $53.07 which is right on target with my mid/late December projection of around $50.00. This was primariliy blamed on Japan announcing it's economy has entered a recession. Since I saw all this coming about six years ago the Japanese economy couldn't have neything to do with it. But they didn't have anything else to blame it on so what can you do.
In other news Presiident at Large Obama is pushinng for a 50 bilion dollar auto bailout rather than the propesed 25. Or should I say 50 billion dollar FIRST payment. His hopes are that the majority of it (30 Billion) will go to Chrylsler who while claiming they are suffering the worst in the auto industry (which is a lie), just gave out 30 million in QUARTERLY bonuses to its top executives Friday.
Personally I think that the automakers whuld not only be allowed to fail, but they should not be given bankruptcy protection in the same way that responsible companies are. Chrysler and GM only have themselves to blame for what has occured. Chrysler makes a higher proportion of trucks than any other automaker. They dropped 1.4 bilion to redesign the minivan (a vehicle that was destined to become defunct) in the middle of a gas crisis. And when they redesigned it they dropped the short wheelbase model which was their most popular seller. GM has continued to introduce several new SUV models over the last six years. Between the two of them they have managed to bring out almost a dozen new gas guzzlers and eliminate even more models that were fuel efficiant and profitable. All when they knew an economic meltdown was inevitable. And now Chrysler is stopping production at its minivan plant, in suburban St. Louis and shifting all production to Ontario CANADA, effectively eliminating thousands of jobs from the economy of the country it wants to bail it out. GM is dong ths same by shifting production to many of it's Mexican plants. I say let them burn.
All in all this is just the beginning of another typical liberal tax and spend some more money on it policy. With the new regime actually being the old regime just empowered a little more continuing into January, Obama and Pelosi have already begun plans to increase the corporate stimulus packages which is alread 750 billion by another HALF A TRILLION. Sadly since they're not planning on addressing the actual problem it will only be a piss poor waste of money...my money...your money. And citing the increase of the savings rate from 1.1 to 2.3 percent he would like to see any personal tax rebates neutralized if not neutered in the new session and shift that money to increased outlays on roads, bridges and other infrastructure. And they are reassuring people that though they do not have any way to ensure the states will spend the monies the way they are meant to be that the they wil cut spending and NOT use the money to make up for any shortfall in tax revenues.
[think:3u0k2fez]RMFAOL![/think:3u0k2fez]
We're in for a very interesting next couple of years.
On the bright side - with gas this cheap ($1.88 here), I'm looking to help out the auto industry by purchasing a new truck. My QuadCab Dodge Hemi is so cheap to run right now, that I think I'm going to upgrade to a 4X4 3/4 ton.
On the bright side - with gas this cheap ($1.88 here), I'm looking to help out the auto industry by purchasing a new truck. My QuadCab Dodge Hemi is so cheap to run right now, that I think I'm going to upgrade to a 4X4 3/4 ton.