Seems almost all luxury companies stocks are running low
anyone is currently buying in the dip or you think it will go lower?
anyone is currently buying in the dip or you think it will go lower?
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Stock market and luxury
- Thread starter Karbon74
- Start date
savings account very low yield in EU.
Note that I did not mean short term trading. I was referring to stock you would keep for years or more. I have some old Microsoft and Amazon stock. The potential yield is just crazy. I am sad I had not enough unobligated money at that time to buy more.
Note that I did not mean short term trading. I was referring to stock you would keep for years or more. I have some old Microsoft and Amazon stock. The potential yield is just crazy. I am sad I had not enough unobligated money at that time to buy more.
I don't know. I'm by no means a financial expert or consultant, but the current situation gives me more of a stomach ache. Not only are inflation rates abnormal worldwide, but yield curves are perverse. In particular, the development in the U.S. - once again - gives me pause for thought. For the last three to four years, everything has been realized and lived on credit. That is why I suspended all investments in shares and ETFs at the beginning of the year. I am still running my existing positions and have not yet liquidated them. But now I invest my money in government bonds and alternative investments, primarily art, whiskey/wine, cars and physical luxury goods via buy digital shares in alternative investments.
But I could just as easily be wrong and think to myself in a year's time "what an idiot, if only you'd kept buying"... wouldn't be the first time, I'm just too overcautious
But I could just as easily be wrong and think to myself in a year's time "what an idiot, if only you'd kept buying"... wouldn't be the first time, I'm just too overcautious
The crash in the Bondmarket seems to have found a more or less bottem, inflation is still high but a lot lower.
I hope that Centralbanks are not making the same mistake like all these passed years by sending rates lower and lower
The economy at least in Europ is slowing so Central Banks can ease a bit, rates will still be high.
So I would go for Bonds.
I hope that Centralbanks are not making the same mistake like all these passed years by sending rates lower and lower
The economy at least in Europ is slowing so Central Banks can ease a bit, rates will still be high.
So I would go for Bonds.
What worries me in particular is the real estate market. It was all so inflated, especially during Corona. No wonder, mortgage rates remained low during Corona and the prices for real estate just kept rising. And now the central banks and, accordingly, the banks are tightening. In Germany, according to colleagues, the interest rate is already over 4+ % in some cases, back to the level of 2011. I don't want to know what will happen when all the lower middle-class families suddenly have to refinance in 5-10 years and are suddenly looking at 4+ % or maybe even more from the former 1-1.5 %.
real estate market is pretty much locked in Fr
High interest rates, sellers still stuck on their dream prices, banks not lending
and ripple effect on rental markets
all signs pointing to crash
that's why I am thinking about high end institutional companies like LVMH Kering etc
Their stock is taking a drubbing right now, but the fundamentals are rock solid. Looks good for long term invest of free cash
High interest rates, sellers still stuck on their dream prices, banks not lending
and ripple effect on rental markets
all signs pointing to crash
that's why I am thinking about high end institutional companies like LVMH Kering etc
Their stock is taking a drubbing right now, but the fundamentals are rock solid. Looks good for long term invest of free cash
The only point I can make here is that (at least) here in The Netherlands there is a shortage of aprox. 700.00 houses, so demand will be there for a long time
And yes you are right that we got used to these abnormal low yields, you wont see those again for a long time.
And yes you are right that we got used to these abnormal low yields, you wont see those again for a long time.
Yep, something similar seems to be slowly developing in DE, although Switzerland is not too far away from it either. The real estate prices here are idiotic. And often real estate is listed for more than 2-3 months, where it was almost instantly sold during covid times.
I see your point, but if you're talking about a crash yourself, think back to 2008, when the real estate sector also took everything down with it, even companies with perfect fundamentals. I'm worried about that again now. Especially since various companies are being undercut again, even though they are actually market leaders and very well positioned.
I see your point, but if you're talking about a crash yourself, think back to 2008, when the real estate sector also took everything down with it, even companies with perfect fundamentals. I'm worried about that again now. Especially since various companies are being undercut again, even though they are actually market leaders and very well positioned.
Imho then in 2008 was different, Lehman went down, the whole banking sector was on the brink of a collapse, here in the Netherlands a few Big Banks had to be rescued by the Government.
Now the Banking system is more robust.
But as always something out of the blue can change the whole picture.
I am 72 years old and have been working on the stockmarket for a long time, so nothing surprises me anymore.
The stupidity of the Central Banks of the passed years (starting with Greenspan) changed the whole game.
Growth was the holy word, rescession No Way, so the intrest weapon was used, and how!!!!
And here we are with idiotic house prices.
Have a good weekend all
Now the Banking system is more robust.
But as always something out of the blue can change the whole picture.
I am 72 years old and have been working on the stockmarket for a long time, so nothing surprises me anymore.
The stupidity of the Central Banks of the passed years (starting with Greenspan) changed the whole game.
Growth was the holy word, rescession No Way, so the intrest weapon was used, and how!!!!
And here we are with idiotic house prices.
Have a good weekend all
CS has just been swallowed by UBS. I wouldn't call the banks today more robust? Especially since the banks were probably not too badly positioned in 2008, but were dragged into the abyss due to dirty products. I don't want to know what new form of CDOs has now been invented again and what dirty debts are being packaged today. But as always, some lose, others win.
I agree what you write, however CS and with it CS First Boston was allready bad a long time, it was due to happen
Mabey thats a comfort thouhgt
Mabey thats a comfort thouhgt
We are currently in a much different situation than 2008. That being said this could turn ugly very quickly. Debt to income ratios are very high in the US. I would assume that's the case in many other places. I can say that the housing market in our State is still hot. You would have thought that high interest rates would have cooled it down. In my industry (Building and Engineering) we still see a solid 3-4 years of growth. But that's also due to the fact that we work with public funds. Private entities have slowed down since borrowing money is costly. I do like to read what others are experiencing in their parts of the world since we live in a global economy.
In 2024 worldwide company loans and company bonds have to be refinanced
approx 5500 billion us dollars, against larger higher rates
The US Government needs to do 7600 us dollars in 2024 (approx 30 percent of US total debt) above that amount another 1800 billion us dollars new debt re. the 6.8 percent deficit.
In Europ overall the deficits are much smaller, exeption is Italy with 4,3 percent
So that is going to hurt here and there, rates will be high for a longer period.
Credit Crunch around the corner???
It smells quite bearish for stock markets
To sleep well the word is Bonds imho
approx 5500 billion us dollars, against larger higher rates
The US Government needs to do 7600 us dollars in 2024 (approx 30 percent of US total debt) above that amount another 1800 billion us dollars new debt re. the 6.8 percent deficit.
In Europ overall the deficits are much smaller, exeption is Italy with 4,3 percent
So that is going to hurt here and there, rates will be high for a longer period.
Credit Crunch around the corner???
It smells quite bearish for stock markets
To sleep well the word is Bonds imho
Housing market here is the same.
Nobody gets loans unless they're with a 10-12% interest rate which is ridiculously high.
Our loan for the two tenant houses were at 4.2%
You can see young families moving into houses, renovating them, and a year or two later they move out again because they simply can't afford it.
Meanwhile the city is building new structures, new city hall, new fair grounds etc etc
It's fucked right now.
@TESLA760
I can both understand and confirm your comments. Until recently, I worked in a law firm and we worked with both public and private developers. The private ones have now almost withdrawn and consider every project four times, whereas they only bought and built on all the land they could get two years ago. It feels like every second idiot you can find is now "active" in the real estate sector. At the same time, the public sector does and builds what it wants. The taxpayers will have to sort it out, as always.
@Storm.
Accordingly, I am also unsurprised at the interest rates Storm. Just today I received a market outlook for Germany from my main Swiss bank, in which they are talking about only about 7.6 %. But whether it's 7.6 or 10-12 % doesn't really matter. Very few people can really afford this with the inflationary real estate prices. I find it all the more astonishing that Swiss banks still only calculate with an imputed high interest rate of "only" 5 % for affordability. Under today's circumstances and the ongoing development, this should probably be significantly higher.
I can both understand and confirm your comments. Until recently, I worked in a law firm and we worked with both public and private developers. The private ones have now almost withdrawn and consider every project four times, whereas they only bought and built on all the land they could get two years ago. It feels like every second idiot you can find is now "active" in the real estate sector. At the same time, the public sector does and builds what it wants. The taxpayers will have to sort it out, as always.
@Storm.
Accordingly, I am also unsurprised at the interest rates Storm. Just today I received a market outlook for Germany from my main Swiss bank, in which they are talking about only about 7.6 %. But whether it's 7.6 or 10-12 % doesn't really matter. Very few people can really afford this with the inflationary real estate prices. I find it all the more astonishing that Swiss banks still only calculate with an imputed high interest rate of "only" 5 % for affordability. Under today's circumstances and the ongoing development, this should probably be significantly higher.
10-12 %
That's what they quote also and then they hike it up during meeting.
I've recently had that happen to us. We wanted to buy some more ground to build the same Appartment building we already have. So money for ground and building. We are free of debt.
They wouldn't aknowledge the market price and if used for collateral, they would have deducted about 40% of the value.
So when we called and said ok we need to talk, around 950k we need, our banking guy said no worries, around 5-6% should be doable which I said to ok high but current situation, that's fine.
We come to the meeting he said 9,7%
