• Tired of adverts on RWI? - Subscribe by clicking HERE and PMing Trailboss for instructions and they will magically go away!

"SWAN NECK" (Part III)- Statistical Analysis of faults and reliability in replicas

ALE7575

Section Mod
Section Moderator
Certified
18/1/11
19,827
340
83
************************************************** *****
ATTENTION: Before reading this Thread Part III, in order to understand it properly, you must read the Thread Part II:

“SWAN NECK” (Part II)
Does it work in replicas?
Quality, faults and reliability of the Swan Neck devices installed in replicas. Fault percentages statistic summary.
http://forum.replica-watch.info/vb/showthread.php?t=84847

************************************************** *****
RWIEXCLUSIVETRANSPARENTE_zps8e4d46b5.png
RWI EXCLUSIVE AWARD”

“SWAN NECK” (Part III)
Statistical Analysis of faults and reliability in replicas
A Complete Statistical Analysis of the data from a group of 204 studied replicas, according to fault types, models, dealers, type of movement (Asian or called “Swiss”) and price range. Comparison with a group of 118 watches from the last series of the new generation replicas. Present and future evolution.


The main purpose of this Thread Part III is to make a Statistical Analysis of the data about Swan Neck devices faults obtained through the observation and study of a group of 204 PAM replicas fitted by Swan Neck from the catalogues and QC pics until 20th June 2011, which the list we will show below in this thread.

We will analyze the percentage total general of fault types, the distribution of fault types according to dealers, according to PAM models, to movement type: Asian or “Swiss” and to price range of the replica.

At the end of this thread we will carry out a study of 118 replicas of the new generation from H-maker, Noob factory and other makers, all launched from the end of June 2011.

The most important conclusions of this Thread Part III will be the comparisons between the faults of this group of 118 new replicas with the results of the group of 204 old replicas above mentioned, in order to establish the current evolution of the new Swan neck devices in replica watches and the situation in the foreseeable future.



18- CLASSIFICATION OF THE FAULT TYPES IN SWAN NECK DEVICES

In order to analyze in a statistical way and to understand easily the results of this Swan neck device faults study, we will classify the found faults in five types with a code for each type.

A(No MS) The replicas with this fault type code have no MS screw due to a lack of QC, as we saw in Section 12 of the Thread Part II. In this case we don’t need to say that the Swan Neck device is not at all functional, because a basic element of the device is missing.

SINTORNILLO-OLD.jpg

SWAN NECK DEVICES WITH FAULT TYPE MISSING SCREW. A(No MS)


A(Over) – The replicas with this fault type code, as we explained in Section 11.3 and 11.4 of Thread Part II, have either the MS screw or the Swan Neck spring passing over the regulator lever RL. This fault type invalidates the work of the Swan Neck device. Therefore the replicas with this fault type cannot at all have a functional Swan Neck device.

MONTAOLD.jpg

SWAN NECK DEVICES WITH FAULT TYPE EITHER MS SCREW OR SWAN NECK SPRING PASSING OVER REGULATOR LEVER. A(Over)


A(Free) – The replicas with this fault type code have free regulator lever RL. That means that the regulator lever RL is not pressed against the tip of the MS screw due to the pressure made by the Swan Neck spring tensile strength, as explained in Section 11.1 of Thread Part II. In this case we cannot consider that the Swan Neck device is functional.

NOTOCA-OLD-final.jpg

SWAN NECK DEVICES WITH FAULT TYPE EITHER MS SCREW OR SWAN NECK SPRING DON’T PRESS THE REGULATOR LEVER RL. A(Free)


A(Short) – The replicas with this fault type code have the Swan Neck device in correct position, with the regulator lever RL pressed against the tip of the MS screw due to the pressure made by the Swan neck spring, but, however, have short MS screw. Because the MS screw has not enough length to achieve all regulation field, as we saw in Section 11.2 of Thread Part II.
As we commented also in the Part II, we should be a little tolerant at this point and with screw MS over the 70%-80% of the total necessary length, we should consider the Swan Neck device to be completely valid. Sometimes even the gen devices are not functional throughout their complete working field. In this study we will consider valid all MS screw with more than 70% of the necessary total length.

TORNILLOCORTOOLD.jpg

SWAN NECK DEVICES WITH FAULT TYPE MS SCREW IS SHORT. A(Short)


B(>70%) – The replicas with this type code have a Swan Neck device with a MS screw with more than 70% of the necessary length and which have not, seemingly, other faults. This means that the regulator lever RL is pressed correctly against the tip of the MS screw due to the pressure made by the Swan neck spring.
This doesn’t mean that the Swan Neck device is functional throughout his working field, because, as we saw in Section 11.1 and 12 of Thread Part II, the Swan Neck spring, although it is seemingly correct, will not have enough elasticity and, when we change the position of the regulation, in some point the Swan Neck spring will finish its tensile strength and will leave free the regulator lever RL, making no valid the device as a whole.
Therefore this type of watches are replicas with decorative and cosmetically appropriate Swan Neck device in the position of the current regulation that they have.

70-OLD.jpg

SWAN NECK DEVICES COSMETICALLY CORRECT AND MS SCREW WITH MORE 70% TOTAL NECESSARY LENGTH. B(>70%)


We must observe that all fault type codes starting “A” are indicating a Swan Neck device that clearly cannot at all be functional in a wide range of the working regulation field.

The B(>70%) type code means replicas with a seemingly functional Swan neck device in more than 70% of its working regulation field and decorative and cosmetically correct in the current position of the regulation that they have. But, when we will change the position of the regulation, in some point the Swan Neck spring will finish its tensile strength and will leave free the regulator lever RL, making no valid the device as a whole.



19- STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DATA FROM THE 204 STUDIED OLD REPLICAS UNTIL 20TH JUNE 2011


19.1- DATABASE TABLE OF THE 204 STUDIED OLD REPLICAS

We can see below the complete list of the 204 studied old replicas, indicating:

- Replica number
- Dealer: KingWatch (KW), Puretime Watches Int. (PT), Replicamake (RM), Trusty Time (TrT) y Timeshop (TS)
- PAM model
- PAM type
- Movement type
- Price $
- Found fault description
- Fault type code (following codes of Section 18)


TABLAGENERALKINGWATCH-1024-FINAL.jpg


TABLAGENERALPURETIME1.jpg

TABLAGENERALPURETIME2.jpg


TABLAGENERALREPLICAMAKE.jpg


TABLAGENERALTRUSTYTIME-1.jpg

TABLAGENERALTRUSTYTIME-2.jpg


TABLAGENERALTIMESHOP.jpg




19.2- TOTAL GENERAL PERCENTAGE OF FAULT TYPES

You can find below the Table and the Graphic of Total General Percentage of Fault Types in the group of 204 studied old replicas.
We are indicating the quantity of found replicas with every fault type and the corresponding percentage.

TABLATOTALGENERALPORCENTAJEDEDEFECTOS-FINAL.jpg


TOTALGENERALPORCENTAJEDEDEFECTOS.jpg



CONCLUSIONS

Almost 30% (1,96%+6,86%+20,59%= 29,41%) of the old replicas have bad assembled either MS screw or Swan Neck spring, or they have no MS screw.

32,35% of the observed replicas have a free regulator lever RL, no pressed by the MS screw and the Swan Neck spring.

Only the 28,24% of the old replicas have a decorative and cosmetically correct look in more 70% of the regulation field.



19.3- PERCENTAGE OF FAULT TYPES ACCORDING TO DEALERS

We show below the Table and the Graphic of Percentage of Fault Types according to Dealers.
We are indicating from each Dealer the quantity of found replicas for every fault type and the corresponding percentage. In the Table and graphic we have also included the Total General percentage for comparison purposes.

TABLADEFECTOSPORDEALERS.jpg


PORCENTAJESPORDEALERS.jpg



CONCLUSIONS

King Watch and Timeshop, although to have a short range of product, have similar and the worst distribution of faults types, with a extremely high percentage of Short screws A(Short), and very low percentage of cosmetically correct Swan Neck device B(>70%).

Puretime and Trusty Time, with wide range of products, have better distribution of fault types.

Curiously, Replicamake, with very reduced range, have the best distribution of fault types, very similar to the Total General, Puretime and Trusty Time. Surely due to a good selection of expensive replicas. Please note that we are talking about the old and golden times of Replicamake.



19.4- PERCENTAGE OF FAULT TYPES ACCORDING TO PAM TYPES

You can find below the distribution of percentage of fault types according the PAM types.

We are indicating from each PAM type the quantity of found replicas for every fault type and the corresponding percentage. In the Table and graphic we have also included the Total General percentage for comparison purposes.

TABLADEFECTOSPORTIPOSPAM.jpg


PORCENTAJESPORTIPOSPAM-FINAL.jpg



CONCLUSIONS

The Luminor Marina and Luminor PAM types have a very similar distribution of fault percentages and very close to the Total General.

The Radiomir PAM types have a very bad distribution of fault types, with a very high percentage of Free regulator lever RL, no pressed for the MS screw and the Swan Neck spring A(Free), and a very low percentage of cosmetically correct Swan Neck device B(>70%).



19.5- PERCENTAGE OF FAULT TYPES ACCORDING TO TYPE OF MOVEMENT

We show below the Table and the Graphic of General Percentage of Fault Types according to Type of Movement : ASIAN or called “Swiss”.
We are indicating for ASIAN and “Swiss” movements the quantity of found replicas for every fault type and the corresponding percentage. In the Table and graphic we have also included the Total General percentage for comparison purposes.

TABLADEFECTOSPORMOVIMIENTOS.jpg


PORCENTAJESPORMOVIMIENTOS.jpg



CONCLUSIONS

The ASIAN and “Swiss” movements have very similar distribution of fault types.
Concerning Swan Neck devices we can state that they are the same in practice.



19.6- PERCENTAGE OF FAULT TYPES ACCORDING TO PRICE RANGE

You can find below the distribution of Percentage of Fault Types according the price range.

We have established four ranges of price:
- From 98$ to 195$
- From 196$ to 220$
- From 221$ to 260$
- More than 260$

We are indicating from each Price Range the quantity of found replicas for every fault type and the corresponding percentage. In the Table and graphic we have also included the Total General percentage for comparison purposes.

TABLADEFECTOSPORPRECIOS.jpg


PORCENTAJESPORPRECIOS.jpg



CONCLUSIONS

The two first cheaper Price Ranges show very similar and the worst distribution of fault types. With very high percentage of Short MS screws A(Short) and very low percentage of cosmetically correct Swan Neck devices B(>70%)

The two more expensive ranges have better distribution of faults with higher percentage of replicas with Swan neck devices cosmetically correct B(>70%).

Curiously, the range 220$-260$ have better results than the high level price of more 260$.

Therefore: Expensive replicas have more cosmetically correct Swan Neck devices that cheaper ones.



20- THE NEW GENERATION OF REPLICAS FROM THE END OF JUNE 2011

From June 2011 a new generation of very good PAM replicas has appeared in the replica world.

When we published the Thread Part II, we concluded that we are seeing a positive evolution in the quality of the Swan Neck installed in the PAM replicas.
At this moment we have made a study of 118 replicas of new generation. And now we can extract some sound conclusions about the Swan Neck device quality of these new replicas.

Firstly we would like indicate that, concerning Swan neck devices, there are two groups of new generation replicas, the replicas made by Noob factory and the replicas made by H maker and other makers.
The Swan Neck devices from these two groups are completely different.

1-The Swan Neck devices from H maker and other makers
These Swan neck devices are cosmetically very correct in general, have very few short screws and have much fewer faults in general than the old studied replicas.
The Swan Neck of the replicas from H-maker are even better than replicas from other makers because they have half of faults.
But unfortunately we realize some faults and details which mean that the Swan neck spring has not enough elasticity either. Although they have better elasticity than Swan Neck spring from Noob.

TIPICAH-MAKER-2.jpg

TYPICAL H MAKER SWAN NECK DEVICES


2- The Swan neck devices from Noob Factory
Noob factory is making, in general, the best PAM replicas of the new generation, but the Noob Factory Swan neck devices are worse than the H maker and other makers and we can say that they are worse even than the old studied replicas.
Almost all MS screw are short in the Noob replicas and the lack of elasticity of their Swan Neck spring are evident, because there are a lot of Noob reps with the regulator lever RL completely free, A(Free), with no pressed regulator lever RL by the MS screw and the Swan neck spring.
It is very difficult to find a Noob factory Swan neck device cosmetically correct and with MS screw long enough.

TIPICANOOB.jpg

TYPICAL NOOB FACTORY SWAN NECK DEVICES



20.1- FAULTS IN THE REPLICAS OF NEW GENERATION

Leaving aside the Replicas from the Noob Factory, the replicas of the new generation have the same faults than old replicas but in much fewer quantity.

SINTORNILLO-NEW.jpg

NEW GENERATION REPLICAS WITH FAULT TYPE MISSING SCREW. A(No MS)



MONTA-NEW.jpg

NEW GENERATION REPLICAS WITH FAULT TYPE EITHER MS SCREW OR SWAN NECK SPRING PASSING OVER REGULATOR LEVER. A(Over)



NOTOCA-NEW.jpg

NEW GENERATION REPLICAS WITH FAULT TYPE EITHER MS SCREW OR SWAN NECK SPRING DON’T PRESS THE REGULATOR LEVER RL. A(Free)



TORCORTO-NEW.jpg

NEW GENERATION REPLICAS WITH FAULT TYPE MS SCREW IS SHORT. A(Short)



70-NEW.jpg

NEW GENERATION REPLICAS WITH SWAN NECK DEVICES COSMETICALLY CORRECT AND MS SCREW WITH MORE 70% TOTAL NECESSARY LENGTH. B(>70%)



20.2- STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DATA FROM THE 118 STUDIED REPLICAS OF NEW GENERATION
We have studied 118 replicas from the catalogue of Puretime and from the QC page and catalogue of Replicamake. In this way we have data from catalogues and from real sold replicas.
Since we have two types of Swan neck devices in the new generation of replicas, we have done two very different groups of new replicas:

- Replicas from H maker + other makers
- Replicas from Noob Factory

You can see below the results of this study.


20.2.1- DATABASE TABLE OF THE 118 NEW GENERATION STUDIED REPLICAS

We can see below the Database Table of the group of 118 new generation studied replicas, indicating:

- Replica Number
- Dealer: Puretime Watches Int. (PT), Replicamake (RM)
- PAM Model
- Maker: H maker+other , Noob
- Found fault description.
- Fault type code (following codes of Section 18)

TABLAGENERALNEW-1.jpg

TABLAGENERALNEW-2.jpg

TABLAGENERALNEW-3.jpg

TABLAGENERALNEW-4.jpg




20.2.2 - PERCENTAGE OF FAULT TYPES IN NEW GENERATION OF REPLICAS. COMPARISON WITH THE PERCENTAGES IN OLD REPLICAS

You can find below the Table and the Graphic of Percentage of Fault Types in the group of 118 new generation studied replicas in comparison with the group of 204 old studied replicas.
We are indicating the quantity of found replicas from each maker and with every found fault type and the corresponding percentage.

TABLADEFECTOSNEW-OLDREPLICAS.jpg


GRAFICOCOMPARACIONOLD-NEW.jpg



CONCLUSIONS

From the Table and Graphic the conclusions are evident:

The Swan Neck devices of the new generation of replicas from H maker and other makers have much fewer faults than the old replicas.
Almost 80% of new generation replicas from H maker and Other makers are decorative and cosmetically correct. In H maker the percentage is even better. But their Swan Neck spring continues having lack of elasticity

The Swan Neck devices of the new generation of replicas from Noob factory are much worst than the rest of studied replicas either old or from H maker and other makers.
Almost 54% of Noob Swan Neck devices have no pressed Regulator lever RL between the MS screw and Swan Neck spring A(Free), and the rest have short screw A(Short). The lack of elasticity of their Swan Neck spring is evident.
Although Noob factory is currently making the best replicas, in general, of the new generation, we have not found a Swan Neck from Noob even decorative or cosmetically correct.



21- FUTURE SWAN NECK DEVICES IN REPLICAS

Bearing in mind the results of this study, we think that the future Swan Necks in replicas will have a more decorative and cosmetically look and will have MS screw with enough length.
Noob factory should take note and to use longer MS screw in order to cosmetically improve its Swan Neck devices.
Other makers and mainly H maker are making Swan Neck devices cosmetically very appropriate.
But we will not have a Swan Neck spring with enough elasticity to achieve a fully functional Swan Neck device.




I would like with these three Threads to have clarified and explained all concepts and doubts about Swan Neck devices in watches and their application in replica watches.
Anyway, if you think there is some study or consideration to add, all suggestions will be very appreciated.

Therefore, this Thread is open, and I remain, of course, waiting for your comments, corrections, suggestions, discussions… in order to improve it for all people in this forum.

As always, I hope to have been useful and helpful with this Thread.

Many thanks for your kind attention.
ALE


*******************************************************
THIS IS AN EXCLUSIVE RWI THREAD
*******************************************************
 

ALE7575

Section Mod
Section Moderator
Certified
18/1/11
19,827
340
83
Hi members!
Some thoughts, criticism or opinions would be very appreciated!!
ALE
icon7.gif
 

Bonesey

Mythical Poster
Advisor
15/1/11
8,926
63
0
Holy crap man! You have too much time on your hands! Going to take me a while to work through this one but you have done some serious research!
 

ALE7575

Section Mod
Section Moderator
Certified
18/1/11
19,827
340
83
Holy crap man! You have too much time on your hands! Going to take me a while to work through this one but you have done some serious research!

Dear Bones
Thank you for your kind comments my friend
Really you know well, for your good RWI threads, the time this takes.
I hope this thread will be useful for you
Actually the three Swan Neck threads are a research work of more than five months studying PAM reps
Thanks again my friend
ALE
 

Trolex

Looking Around
26/12/11
4
0
0
Congratulation Mr 7575 ... guess it´s the time you spent in this wonderful RESEARCH ... im new here and this is what a call GOOD WORK ...
Thank you and the administrators to make it happen ...
Chapeau !!! :))))))))))
 

ALE7575

Section Mod
Section Moderator
Certified
18/1/11
19,827
340
83
Congratulation Mr 7575 ... guess it´s the time you spent in this wonderful RESEARCH ... im new here and this is what a call GOOD WORK ...
Thank you and the administrators to make it happen ...
Chapeau !!! :))))))))))

Thanks Trolex
I think you are exaggerating.
Anyway, thanks for your nice comments!!
ALE :))
 

Trolex

Looking Around
26/12/11
4
0
0
Rookie

Dear Ale,
Not exaggerating really ... but I agree with someone who said one: YOU HAVE A LOT OF TIME IN YOUR HANDS ...
 

ALE7575

Section Mod
Section Moderator
Certified
18/1/11
19,827
340
83
many thanks ALE7575

would you be able to point me in the direction of the best PAM323?

thanks for the information and advice, hopefully will hear from you too!

thanks,
flux.

Many thanks flux for your kind comments
Unfortunately I think that this watch PAM323 is not in the rep market.
If you know some link please indicate me to see it and I will comment about.
Sorry
ALE
 

cybee

Legendary Member
Supporter
23/11/06
11,134
29
48
Another very informative thread Ale. Thank-you for taking the time and effort in doing all of this research. Buyers will need to weigh the options between the H maker and the Noob. I think I would opt for the more cosmetically correct swan version since for me the swan neck is really the centerpiece of the movement.

I've enjoyed your Swan Neck series...Well Done!
 

ALE7575

Section Mod
Section Moderator
Certified
18/1/11
19,827
340
83
Another very informative thread Ale. Thank-you for taking the time and effort in doing all of this research. Buyers will need to weigh the options between the H maker and the Noob. I think I would opt for the more cosmetically correct swan version since for me the swan neck is really the centerpiece of the movement.

I've enjoyed your Swan Neck series...Well Done!

Many thanks cybee
You are very kind for your comments
I really appreciate your opinion
Thanks again
ALE
 

acid_luving

Horology Curious
26/11/12
5
0
0
Dear ALE7575

You should think about publishing this in some journal if possible that how scientific research should be conducted.

Hats off! I am sure you were a graduate student in the field of science being a grad myself :-D
 

hdd921

Horology Curious
11/12/12
11
0
0
I'm very impressed! It is scientific enough to be published in a peer reviewed journal if there is one : ) But we are blessed with this wonderful forum.

The replica watch makers should be reading this and consider funding such studies : )