Why go Gen ?

[lcsrep11]

Realistically if you were lucky enough to buy a brand new sub now to flip you would make around a grand on it sold privately 500/750 quid if sold to a dealer.

This dealer will then more than likely add 1k on to this price and charge that as they have a reputable name and business behind it that warrants the price (some may disagree). End of the day profit is profit. If your talking about buying watches to flip instantly the profit margin is not so great. But if this is indeed what you mean then i wouldn't actually class that as investment. An investment is something that gains value over time like my watches which ive owned for many years and have seen true growth in value. What your talking about is trading.

 

[lcsrep11]

There is also a big difference between what watches are listed for on the grey market and what they are actually selling for. I see plenty who are trying to flip their subs for 2k above retail, but I don't see any of them selling.

Realistically if you were lucky enough to buy a brand new sub now to flip you would make around a grand on it sold privately 500/750 quid if sold to a dealer.

This dealer will then more than likely add 1k on to this price and charge that as they have a reputable name and business behind it that warrants the price (some may disagree). End of the day profit is profit. If your talking about buying watches to flip instantly the profit margin is not so great. But if this is indeed what you mean then i wouldn't actually class that as investment. An investment is something that gains value over time like my watches which ive owned for many years and have seen true growth in value. What your talking about is trading.

 

[Hinclimincli]

Getting into vintage is a mugs game. Anyone with a level head will tell you there are much better ways to invest your money that do not include gambling it on a current and indeed temporary horological trend.

I guess you have vintages and vintages. Buying vintage Seikos is one thing, and most of them are nice, cheap (ish) and you can easily spot when they have been altered and overpolished. Worst case, you are only gambling four hundred quid (unless you are after some specific pieces). That applies to the other classic pre-quartz-armageddon Swiss ones like Cortebert, Buren, Record, etc.

But once you get into the vintage Rolex world... Man, that is gambling serious money. And it's exactly that: gambling. Even the guys at Hodinkee know that, and they drool over anything that has the slightest patina:

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/four-stories-2016-why-vintage-rolex-collecting-still-terrifying

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/9...-always-look-at-before-buying-a-vintage-rolex

Each to their own, but I can tell you this man here won't be getting anywhere close to a vintage GMT.

 

[SOLEX]

Why go gen? If I had tons of excess money, you would certainly not see me here

Seriously speaking, I love the hunt, seeing the latest releases and modding my favorite models that get so close to the gen with a little work. NOBODY knows the difference if I am wearing rep or gen, so why should I go gen? I personally wish I could have a bunch of gens, but at this time I focused on getting my grail, and for SS watches I really see no point in going gen unless it is something impossible to rep (think Sky Dweller SS, GMT Pepsi etc.)

I really enjoy this hobby, and it seems a bit of a pain to even get a gen Rolex these days. I for one am really upset with the way Rolex is doing business these days. The AD's only get a minute qty of Steel watches (hottest sellers) and have to turn down people that come in with fists full of money or try to upsell them to two tone/gold models. Recently an AD said I would need to wait about 10 years for a SS GMT Pepsi. Come on.

 

[lcsrep11]

Why go gen? If I had tons of excess money, you would certainly not see me here

Seriously speaking, I love the hunt, seeing the latest releases and modding my favorite models that get so close to the gen with a little work. NOBODY knows the difference if I am wearing rep or gen, so why should I go gen? I personally wish I could have a bunch of gens, but at this time I focused on getting my grail, and for SS watches I really see no point in going gen unless it is something impossible to rep (think Sky Dweller SS, GMT Pepsi etc.)

I really enjoy this hobby, and it seems a bit of a pain to even get a gen Rolex these days. I for one am really upset with the way Rolex is doing business these days. The AD's only get a minute qty of Steel watches (hottest sellers) and have to turn down people that come in with fists full of money or try to upsell them to two tone/gold models. Recently an AD said I would need to wait about 10 years for a SS GMT Pepsi. Come on.

Crazy waits its seems for all Rolex SS sports models. You have to weigh it up, if you really want the watch in my opinion its probably better to pay a premium on the grey market as by the time you get to the front of the 10 year que the watch will more than likely cost more than the premium you could have got it at 10 years earlier. Its catch 22.

 

[SOLEX]

Crazy waits its seems for all Rolex SS sports models. You have to weigh it up, if you really want the watch in my opinion its probably better to pay a premium on the grey market as by the time you get to the front of the 10 year que the watch will more than likely cost more than the premium you could have got it at 10 years earlier. Its catch 22.

I would never pay OVER retail for anything. I do not care what it is or who it is from. Hell, if I even found a GMT Pepsi in an AD I would find a way to save on taxes by shipping out of state.

For that reason alone I totally abandoned the gen game. I kept my 116515, and called it a day. Things went crazy, especially after the 116500 was released. I do not buy for investment purposes, but the fact that I bought an 18k watch and can make a pretty hefty profit off it after 2 years of ownership means this market must be some sort of bubble and I want nothing to do with it.

 

[lcsrep11]

I would never pay OVER retail for anything. I do not care what it is or who it is from. Hell, if I even found a GMT Pepsi in an AD I would find a way to save on taxes by shipping out of state.

For that reason alone I totally abandoned the gen game. I kept my 116515, and called it a day. Things went crazy, especially after the 116500 was released. I do not buy for investment purposes, but the fact that I bought an 18k watch and can make a pretty hefty profit off it after 2 years of ownership means this market must be some sort of bubble and I want nothing to do with it.

Yea i'm in a similar situation i don't buy for investment but made a lot of money on a couple of gens i own both stainless steel a GMT Master ii 117610 and Black Daytona 116520. I bought the daytona around £1100 over list in 2012 and today i could get double what i paid for it so paying premium isn't such a bad thing if you select the right piece. The GMT has more than doubled also but i have owned it for 12 years. I would do it again if there was a watch I really wanted. Life's too short.

 

[muiramas]

Unfortunately grey market prices for professional SS models ARE curent market prices. If you get one from an AD at MSRP then congratulations - you’ve essentially got a discount. Kind of sucks really, but no one to thank but Rolex for creating that situation, and the AD’s who knowingly participate in selling stock to grey dealer ‘proxy’s’ - because they are such good customers...

Its why I’m happy with my ARF Sub. It hits the spot. I know the date mag is like 3x not 2.5 - I don’t care - thats a difference of 16%. I think the rule to enjoy this hobby is don’t sweat the small stuff. If that kind of thing bothers you then fair play, and thanks for teaching the rest of us - but what bothers some won’t bother everyone. Example - as a designer, the typographic errors on the dials of some gen Submariners bring me out in hives - but the most detail obsessed members here would probably not understand what I find so wrong with them.

I know there are a few differences but at the same time, to most, these newer reps are near as damn it the real thing. The details we obsess with over are, for the most part, not important in real life.

 

[muiramas]

I guess you have vintages and vintages. Buying vintage Seikos is one thing, and most of them are nice, cheap (ish) and you can easily spot when they have been altered and overpolished. Worst case, you are only gambling four hundred quid (unless you are after some specific pieces). That applies to the other classic pre-quartz-armageddon Swiss ones like Cortebert, Buren, Record, etc.

But once you get into the vintage Rolex world... Man, that is gambling serious money. And it's exactly that: gambling. Even the guys at Hodinkee know that, and they drool over anything that has the slightest patina:

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/fo...ill-terrifying

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/9-...-vintage-rolex

Each to their own, but I can tell you this man here won't be getting anywhere close to a vintage GMT.

Yes, you’re right - i got mixed up with folks talking about doubling / trippling the value of their watches. Vintage market is fine for grabbing a bargain. But the ‘high value’ segment of that market is built on sand as far as I am concerned.

ablogtowatch and hodinkee are the worst for perpetuating the crap associated with high value vintage. ‘Patina’ seems to mean the lume has cracked and turned piss in colour, its over polished, over worn, has a cracked dial, corroded hands and so on. Crazy.

 

[LV311]

I also agree with muiramas, that the analogy is not comparable.

It's probably more accurate to look at the economies of scale Rolex benefits from having such a huge production quantity. Once the fixed costs of investments and the like are made (probably years ago), each unit produced becomes cheaper and cheaper as in the initial investment is now spread over a larger quantity. Plus it's not like the watches have updates all the time. There are sometimes minuscule updates, if even that occurring every now and again.

I disagree respectfully.
The fact that there are diminishing returns when investing in quality is a fact, not an opinion.
Rolex may have very good margins (I'm sure they do, I would guess in the 75-85% gross based on my experience in the luxury business) and I imagine they have invested heavily in automation and efficiency, but that doesn't negate my point about diminishing returns.

 

[muiramas]

I disagree respectfully.
The fact that there are diminishing returns when investing in quality is a fact, not an opinion.
Rolex may have very good margins (I'm sure they do, I would guess in the 75-85% gross based on my experience in the luxury business) and I imagine they have invested heavily in automation and efficiency, but that doesn't negate my point about diminishing returns.

What diminishing return? Rolex will make more money on models which cost them more to make, not less - so there can only be an increasing return per CHF spent.

Rolex's are mass produced items - they are not hand built to last X amount of days and tell the time 2% better per every $500 spent, or be 2% shinier, or 2% more nice touchy feeling... Your comparison with motor vehicles is wrong. The laws of diminishing return are not valid here.

 

[LV311]

I clearly can't get to explain myself correctly.

Example of of what I mean by "dismissing return when investing in quality".
Say Chinese mass producer X can make a catalogue case and bracelet with a end link fit tolerance of 0.1mm and it costs them $100
If they wanted a tolerance of 0.05mm it would likely not cost them $200, but $300
if they wanted the laser-tight tolerances that Rolex has... they would have to build specific machinery and it would cost them a shitton of money.

I think TC described it when he was active.
The tiny improvements he had in the V7 Extreme cost him a lot of money. Small improvements towards perfection almost added 50% to the cost of the watch.
So to get a (say) 5% increase in quality he had a 50% increase in costs.

If if you are at all familiar with anything that has to deal with manufacturing you should see what I mean now

 

[Cooldaddyfunk286]

What an interesting thread this turned out to be! Holy shit. Like everyone else has said, I suppose if I had super money to burn, I'd buy a 10 grand hulk (if I was lucky enough to find it at that price). I never knew the AD game was so ruthless. Wtf kind of customer service is it to tell a customer who is ready to buy, "oh we'll see you in 10 years, hahaha" they would certainly remember me if someone laughed in my face and treated me that way, while holding 10-20k to drop in THIER store. I'm a customer service kind of guy. Why would Rolex be doing this to faithful fkin customers who are ready to pay!! That's what's ludicrous IMHO. Especially since we all know how automated the factory is, almost entirely except for final fit and inspection, and some hand work on dials. They have the means to SHIT these basic SS models out. But look, loosing customers to reps because of this "strategy"??!! GTFO!!

 

[innocenti]

Service estimate back from Rolex - 680.00 GBP as it apparently needs a new crown and glass on top.

Have had just as much pleasure wearing my Noob GMTII and Airking this week without breaking a Gen out from the safe. Think Ill give the airking one more days wristtime before moving on to the Noob & BP Yachtmasters next.

So far excluding any consideration of resale value I have had just as much enjoyment and compliments with the reps.

Quoted 6 week turnaround by Rolex so I will wear nothing but replicas for the duration and leave other gens locked away.

 

[SOLEX]

I clearly can't get to explain myself correctly.

Example of of what I mean by "dismissing return when investing in quality".
Say Chinese mass producer X can make a catalogue case and bracelet with a end link fit tolerance of 0.1mm and it costs them $100
If they wanted a tolerance of 0.05mm it would likely not cost them $200, but $300
if they wanted the laser-tight tolerances that Rolex has... they would have to build specific machinery and it would cost them a shitton of money.

I think TC described it when he was active.
The tiny improvements he had in the V7 Extreme cost him a lot of money. Small improvements towards perfection almost added 50% to the cost of the watch.
So to get a (say) 5% increase in quality he had a 50% increase in costs.

If if you are at all familiar with anything that has to deal with manufacturing you should see what I mean now

This is true. The final tiny details always cost the most. This is why Noob and other factories do not reach perfection. Otherwise we would be looking at a rep that is 2x the cost or more. Many of their customers (we are minority) really do not give a crap. We are lucky to have this hobby, but in all honesty we are the only ones that are modding and pushing these reps to their max potential.

 

[muiramas]

I clearly can't get to explain myself correctly.

Example of of what I mean by "dismissing return when investing in quality".
Say Chinese mass producer X can make a catalogue case and bracelet with a end link fit tolerance of 0.1mm and it costs them $100
If they wanted a tolerance of 0.05mm it would likely not cost them $200, but $300
if they wanted the laser-tight tolerances that Rolex has... they would have to build specific machinery and it would cost them a shitton of money.

I think TC described it when he was active.
The tiny improvements he had in the V7 Extreme cost him a lot of money. Small improvements towards perfection almost added 50% to the cost of the watch.
So to get a (say) 5% increase in quality he had a 50% increase in costs.

If if you are at all familiar with anything that has to deal with manufacturing you should see what I mean now

I completely understand what you are trying to say.

Rolex are not a paragon of engineering and horological excellence. Buying a Rolex is expensive, not the manufacturing cost.

 

[Cooldaddyfunk286]

I think the Chinese are amazing. Infact, companies like Gucci, Louis Vuitton, Chanel, burberry, plus some have all moved the majority of manufacturing to China, it's supposed to be a "big secret" ...gucci wants you to think your 700 dollar shoes are all hand made by an italian in a little shop, nah, everything BUT the sole of the shoe is made in China, EVERYTHING but the leather sole, so what they do is stamp "made in italy" on the soles, and technically that soul IS made in Italy, but the entire rest of the shoe

 

[Cooldaddyfunk286]

Sorry my phone died as I was typing and it posted it....but the entire rest of the shoe is 100% made in China. marketing is everything. I cannot deny that Rolex has a BANGING factory, because they do, it's top notch. But we fool ourselves to think they aren't capable of more. Maybe there focusing more on the gold because they just made a major gold purchase, who knows what the logic behind the method is.

 

[MarksandSpencer]

What an interesting thread this turned out to be! Holy shit. Like everyone else has said, I suppose if I had super money to burn, I'd buy a 10 grand hulk (if I was lucky enough to find it at that price). I never knew the AD game was so ruthless. Wtf kind of customer service is it to tell a customer who is ready to buy, "oh we'll see you in 10 years, hahaha" they would certainly remember me if someone laughed in my face and treated me that way, while holding 10-20k to drop in THIER store. I'm a customer service kind of guy. Why would Rolex be doing this to faithful fkin customers who are ready to pay!! That's what's ludicrous IMHO. Especially since we all know how automated the factory is, almost entirely except for final fit and inspection, and some hand work on dials. They have the means to SHIT these basic SS models out. But look, loosing customers to reps because of this "strategy"??!! GTFO!!

The big/chain store AD's really don't care about the average customer, they really care about the high spenders, so sometimes hold back stock of popular models for these customers. For the smaller/family run AD's do care about every customer that walks through their doors, so when they mention "x" years, it's not out of choice, but are usually being honest regarding the demand/supply. Not to say these smaller shops don't serve high-spenders as well, but you get my point. To be honest it's a guess as to why Rolex are constraining supply as much, there are a few theories which are regularly spouted, but to see how this plays out will be interesting. It's a money game at the end of the day, they'll do whatever that makes their coffers fuller.

 

[Cooldaddyfunk286]

Ahh I hear ya. All I have in my area is a family owned jewelry store in the heart of a prestigious town, beautiful jewelry shop AD. I couldn't imagine this happening there, as I've been there a few years ago and tried on a few different SS models, but not sure that the oyster 39 or milgaus are considered sports models, idts. They did have a sub and a GMT aswell, but were out of my price range, so before I knew about reps, I didn't wanna tease myself lol. But man they were a great AD. Gave me champagne while trying on SS rollies. Great guys and gals. N.Fox jewelers, for anyone near Saratoga Springs NY.

Can anyone seriously imagine waiting 10 plus years on a list? That's absurd to even tell a customer. But I suppose, the direct honest approach is appreciated. I'm a patient man, really I am, but not that patient lol.