RAIDS happening - message from reddit dealer

[H7-25]

Despite all of the rumours, I know that Noob's operations are too big to be shutdown indefinitely.

Consider the following factors:
(1) They most definitely have diversified their production throughout china and may have the capacity to look elsewhere, where labour costs are low.
(2) The machinery and systems in place to manufacture high end replicas have intrinsic value [all of this information cannot just simply disappear, it will go to the next highest bidder].
(3) *MOST IMPORTANTLY* Whenever there is an excess in demand for goods, someone will fulfil this demand as they are driven by a profit incentive.

Let's stop panicking and adding fire to this rumour mill, by waiting for the situation to blow over. It is inevitable that the market will bounce back like it always has. The production of the beloved 4130, will and has to continue.

NOTE: This most probably also applies to the other factories I'm sure, I myself was most concerned for Noob's situation, due to the apparent halt in production of the V4 Daytona's and their retirement from the rep scene.

Fully agree!!
Demand makes the market - if there is demand there will be supply. And if I look at the HUGE rep industry in China beside watches (fashion, electronics, pens... maybe 3/4 of Aliexpress‘ inventory) I am pretty convinced that they play a larger economic role than we think.

But let‘s see how the situation develops.. in some month all of us know more.

 

[Rustknuckle]

Someone else touched on the worry I am about to speak to earlier, but my worry is this: Back in the day China did not care much about about the rep game because their direct income from the gen products were minimal. I worry that the tide has shifted and the taxable income from luxury goods has reached a point where it has become more in their interest to protect the producers of gen items rather than turn a blind eye to the production of replicas.

I hope everything gets back to normal with reps, but I have this sinking feeling in my gut that we are at the changing of an era. I have seen clamp downs start first with a large reduction in obvious fakes on AliExpress, then iOffer got taken out and DHgate changed their search making finding reps in many categories much harder and the selection dropped by 75% in some categories or brands.

I fear for a future where the risks of manufacturing replicas are so harsh that the risk to profit ratio means that producing low quality fast is the only way to live for the producers. I fear in the future that anything that wont make back the initial investments in a couple of months will not be made.

 

[diamant]

Rustknuckle Agree with u

my td said VSF will take a long time for coming back.
we are talking about parts factories risk and got robbed hard.

VSF will work but lay very low, so orders will take time.
parts will be harder to get, prices might go up for risks.

 

[Charis_freya]

May be it is wise to tell the TD, they might delete the orderhistory in case ROLEX or Omega will run after the custemors

 

[derjenigewelcher]

And then let's not forget that Chinese labor costs very little and no warranty is given on replicas.

www.jtime.cc // 6 month guarantee

 

[derjenigewelcher]

May be it is wise to tell the TD, they might delete the orderhistory in case ROLEX or Omega will run after the custemors

Paranoid?

 

[Atlas_Shrugged]

May be it is wise to tell the TD, they might delete the orderhistory in case ROLEX or Omega will run after the custemors

No don't delete history, it's how I keep track of my past orders. Although you might be right. I don't want somebody from Rolex showing up to my house with a machete, duct tape and a gallon of gas.

 

[KOT1917]

May be it is wise to tell the TD, they might delete the orderhistory in case ROLEX or Omega will run after the custemors

Only PANERAI will come looking doomed and asked to sell a coupl of old NOOBs.

 

[eBoy]

And I don‘t think that the Chinese gov is impressed after signing the WTO or any other agreement - come on, China is the biggest economy in the World and in the future they will make the rules - not Europe or the US.

Funny that exactly the two you mentioned, United States (1st) and European Union (2nd) are actually the largest economies in the world. China is the third largest. But I'll admit they're on their way to the top, no doubt about that. Strictly by country, they're 2nd already...

 

[alexcast]

This sittuation unveils that most pf the TD doesn’t risk any capital buying stock, they just called and asked for the pieces sold, and pum 100 usd profit no risk.


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[Diplomatico]

May be it is wise to tell the TD, they might delete the orderhistory in case ROLEX or Omega will run after the custemors

I hope you're kidding

 

[Diplomatico]

I do not agree with this.
Let me express my opinion, the quality of replicas is not excellent for what we pay for them (the best ones at least $500), I can say this because I own a "San Martin" (a homage to the Submariner, for those who don't know) that I paid $200 for and comparing it to my VSF the build quality is the same.
And then let's not forget that Chinese labor costs very little and no warranty is given on replicas.
So adding all these factors together, to build a good replica you don't have more than 150/200 dollars of expense, so the remaining 300 dollars in whose pockets will go?!

Most of the $200-600 watches on the market are already manufactured in China so comparing them is like comparing rep factories.

 

[Charis_freya]

Paranoid?

No Realist my friend


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[Diplomatico]

I paid two daytona noob to my TD on April 8th. keep telling me it takes a little longer.


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I contacted all TDs and none had access to a stock pile of Noob Daytonas. So unless you're extremely lucky you're not gonna get the watches. Most TDs buy directly from the factories after cleared payment, especially evident on higher priced reps as the Noob Daytonas.

I managed to get lucky and snag one brand new from a member so be prepared to scan the M2M market.

 

[Diplomatico]

No Realist my friend


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You realize that the resources that would be required for that kind of operation for each and every country involved (and also, remember that it's only illegal in a very few countries tp own and purchasing a counterfeit item) are astronomical.

You can continue your beauty sleep.

 

[stepanok]

Quote from something i read today in the news.

" The office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) has kept China on its “priority watch list” for intellectual property (IP) rights enforcement problems, according to the agency’s report published on Friday. Under the trade agreement signed by the two parties at the beginning of 2020, which marked a truce in the longstanding US-China trade war, Beijing pledged to address US industries’ concerns on trade secrets, patents, trademarks, and copyrights, among other issues. The trade office said that it has been closely monitoring implementation of those commitments. “However, these steps toward reform require effective implementation and fall short of the full range of fundamental changes needed to improve the IP landscape in China,” the USTR report said. It also signaled that there are doubts about the effectiveness of legal changes, and stressed that bad faith trademarks and counterfeiting still persist.
Earlier this week, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai promised to meet her Chinese counterpart, without elaborating. She said that her office had not yet started its top-to-bottom review of trade policy on China, which could lift some of the still-existing tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods.

 

[JayBee0815]

Quote from something i read today in the news.

" The office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) has kept China on its “priority watch list” for intellectual property (IP) rights enforcement problems, according to the agency’s report published on Friday. Under the trade agreement signed by the two parties at the beginning of 2020, which marked a truce in the longstanding US-China trade war, Beijing pledged to address US industries’ concerns on trade secrets, patents, trademarks, and copyrights, among other issues. The trade office said that it has been closely monitoring implementation of those commitments. “However, these steps toward reform require effective implementation and fall short of the full range of fundamental changes needed to improve the IP landscape in China,” the USTR report said. It also signaled that there are doubts about the effectiveness of legal changes, and stressed that bad faith trademarks and counterfeiting still persist.
Earlier this week, US Trade Representative Katherine Tai promised to meet her Chinese counterpart, without elaborating. She said that her office had not yet started its top-to-bottom review of trade policy on China, which could lift some of the still-existing tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods.

Yep, but the Trademarks in our concern are not from the USA but from Switzerland.

 

[stepanok]

Yep, but the Trademarks in our concern are not from the USA but from Switzerland.

That is correct but i don't see how this would work in the "real" world. They will crack down everything with a USA Trademark and leave everything else intact? I somehow doubt it.

 

[JayBee0815]

That is correct but i don't see how this would work in the "real" world. They will crack down everything with a USA Trademark and leave everything else intact? I somehow doubt it.

That is right. The broader politcal context is against our hobby. But in the end Beijing is the one who set up the rules for this business ... and not the US.

 

[stepanok]

You realize that the resources that would be required for that kind of operation for each and every country involved (and also, remember that it's only illegal in a very few countries tp own and purchasing a counterfeit item) are astronomical.

You can continue your beauty sleep.

What you are saying does not make sense. "it's only illegal in a very few countries to own and purchasing a counterfeit item " !!!!!!!!!!!. How come there is a huge amount of effort and expense to get them trough customs then? If they are not illegal there wouldn't be a problem. I personally don't know of ANY country where it is legal to buy and receive a counterfeit item.
At the same time i would be more worried about the rep watch forums as their names are plastered all over the TDs pages.