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Distribution of Replicas vs Gens in the Wild

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    Distribution of Replicas vs Gens in the Wild

    Since this forum and others have super rep lists, and very few reps are able to truly match gens without an obvious tell, are there certain watch models out there that are dominated by reps in terms of people actually wearing that model?

    For example, if you saw someone wearing a PAM, since there are so many super rep clones, does that mean most of the ones worn in general are likely to be fakes? Especially common models like the 111 which are still widely available from TDs?

    It seems these TDs have enormous sales volume together as a whole. Or am I mislead, and they sell way less than the actual watch companies?

    Then you have DHgate/Alibaba low quality fakes and shops in tourist areas which are probably even more volume though

    How many people who wear reps are actually trying to pass them off as real, vs just wearing it for fun (normal young student who wears a rep $100k patek and obviously can't afford the real one, vs moderately wealthy mid 30s guy wearing a pam which is highly realistic for him to own at its $6k price tag, etc).

    My guess is people on these forums buying high quality ones are more likely to try to pass them off as real, and the lower quality ones are more like gimmicks bought by people who aren't really too educated on watches in general

    Thoughts/expertise?

    Thanks!
    No longer active

    #2
    I saw the post and thought must be new guy here and I am right!
    Last edited by MarkMarky; 12-03-21, 07:16.

    Comment


      #3
      For me, I've always had GENs & actually stumbled upon this site earlier this year,when a GEN watch forum was debating how accurate reps have become - the ultimate irony.

      Whilst I was never gonna, unless I won the lottery, be in a position to drop mental eye watering money on an A Lange etc, I could, with some savings afford a GEN patek or AP or Rolex - but the question is- would I?

      Would people think I'd wear a rep, probably not, would I care if they thought I would, probably not.

      Some use GENs as an investment- personally it's for the enjoyment. As I've said on other threads, it's more for the aesthetics than the horologival accuracy, so if I get broadly the same visual pleasure for a minuscule fraction of the GEN price- winner winner chicken dinner.

      But back on point, I agree, if you see the intern in your office rocking a $100k patek, it's possibly, bordering on highly likely,that it's a rep,but not impossible. Maybe he/she has wealthy parents & this is their way to teach them the value of money. At the end of the day, does it really matter.

      When you see people on here Franken-ing (if that's even a word) their rep watches, it's because they demand a greater level of closeness to GEN, than others. They're looking for accuracy, perhaps to pass of as GEN, but maybe not. Maybe they just want to tinker with their rep and give themselves not only visual stimulation, but a knowledge that they may have also mechanically improved their replica.

      Do some people try pass off as GEN, of course, but thats their prerogative, and unless they're trying to scam someone else, does it really matter. If it gives them even a smile, worth it in their eyes.

      I was speaking to a colleague who recently moved to Dubai and she said there are so many ROLEX over there, she has no idea which are GEN and which are reps, so shes stopped looking. To her she'd be concerned buying a GEN, and have it questioned as a fake, or vice versa, but that's just her.

      So while it would be very interesting to see the TD/factory sales figures (per brand), and compare to the published market share info of the major brands, and do some analysis/extrapolation on a global scale, I doubt that'll ever happen, and does it matter - it's an individual choice.

      At the end of the day though, a GEN is a GEN, and a rep is a rep, it's all about what youre happy with - me, I'm happy with a huge saving when watches were always akin to jewellery to me - as is the missus

      ps I also think the rep scene, and growing accuracy, has caused an increase in GEN prices on the gray market, given people will only use ADs etc, another irony eh.





      "The two most powerful warriors are patience and time"

      "Take care to get what you like
      or
      you will be forced to like what you get."

      WTB:
      PAM089 / PAM 332 / Skydweller (black) / TC 16610LV

      Comment


        #4

        some market stats from a different GEN forum, good luck getting the rep ones
        "The two most powerful warriors are patience and time"

        "Take care to get what you like
        or
        you will be forced to like what you get."

        WTB:
        PAM089 / PAM 332 / Skydweller (black) / TC 16610LV

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by P..DR..D View Post
          For me, I've always had GENs & actually stumbled upon this site earlier this year,when a GEN watch forum was debating how accurate reps have become - the ultimate irony.

          Whilst I was never gonna, unless I won the lottery, be in a position to drop mental eye watering money on an A Lange etc, I could, with some savings afford a GEN patek or AP or Rolex - but the question is- would I?

          Would people think I'd wear a rep, probably not, would I care if they thought I would, probably not.

          Some use GENs as an investment- personally it's for the enjoyment. As I've said on other threads, it's more for the aesthetics than the horologival accuracy, so if I get broadly the same visual pleasure for a minuscule fraction of the GEN price- winner winner chicken dinner.

          But back on point, I agree, if you see the intern in your office rocking a $100k patek, it's possibly, bordering on highly likely,that it's a rep,but not impossible. Maybe he/she has wealthy parents & this is their way to teach them the value of money. At the end of the day, does it really matter.

          When you see people on here Franken-ing (if that's even a word) their rep watches, it's because they demand a greater level of closeness to GEN, than others. They're looking for accuracy, perhaps to pass of as GEN, but maybe not. Maybe they just want to tinker with their rep and give themselves not only visual stimulation, but a knowledge that they may have also mechanically improved their replica.

          Do some people try pass off as GEN, of course, but thats their prerogative, and unless they're trying to scam someone else, does it really matter. If it gives them even a smile, worth it in their eyes.

          I was speaking to a colleague who recently moved to Dubai and she said there are so many ROLEX over there, she has no idea which are GEN and which are reps, so shes stopped looking. To her she'd be concerned buying a GEN, and have it questioned as a fake, or vice versa, but that's just her.

          So while it would be very interesting to see the TD/factory sales figures (per brand), and compare to the published market share info of the major brands, and do some analysis/extrapolation on a global scale, I doubt that'll ever happen, and does it matter - it's an individual choice.

          At the end of the day though, a GEN is a GEN, and a rep is a rep, it's all about what youre happy with - me, I'm happy with a huge saving when watches were always akin to jewellery to me - as is the missus

          ps I also think the rep scene, and growing accuracy, has caused an increase in GEN prices on the gray market, given people will only use ADs etc, another irony eh.




          Love your reply, true that we'll never know the sales figures for the TDs or random tourist shops scattered around the world.

          What did you mean by grey market being higher price because they only use ADs? Isn't grey market non authorized by definition?

          Or you mean they'll only buy from unofficial dealers with a lot of feedback?
          No longer active

          Comment


            #6
            Yup, grey market with alot of feedback, thus, imo demanding higher prices.
            "The two most powerful warriors are patience and time"

            "Take care to get what you like
            or
            you will be forced to like what you get."

            WTB:
            PAM089 / PAM 332 / Skydweller (black) / TC 16610LV

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by P..DR..D View Post
              Yup, grey market with alot of feedback, thus, imo demanding higher prices.
              Because individual owners can't easily sell them due to lack of trust?
              No longer active

              Comment


                #8
                100%.

                And the scarcity of supply coupled with the worry of buying a well boxed rep forced people to rely on a small number of sources, this demand exceeds supply and prices rise.
                "The two most powerful warriors are patience and time"

                "Take care to get what you like
                or
                you will be forced to like what you get."

                WTB:
                PAM089 / PAM 332 / Skydweller (black) / TC 16610LV

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by P..DR..D View Post
                  100%.

                  And the scarcity of supply coupled with the worry of buying a well boxed rep forced people to rely on a small number of sources, this demand exceeds supply and prices rise.
                  I wonder why there aren't more fakes being sold. When I sold my gen 5726a it was easy to complete the transaction as a random eBayer, but I guess there are no convincing fakes of that model and the buyer was likely savvy, so it's not a big worry. But imagine the amount of research someone would need to do to be sure...

                  I believe the blue face trades at more of a premium due to fakes not being able to replicate it very well, a boutique might have even told me that
                  No longer active

                  Comment


                    #10
                    In my experience I see mostly DHgate quality replicas out in "the wild" so I think that is the kind of watch that has the market share of replicas, Very rare do i see what appears to be genuine watch but then without taking it from there wrist there is now way I would know if it was a high quality replica or the real thing.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by holt View Post
                      In my experience I see mostly DHgate quality replicas out in "the wild" so I think that is the kind of watch that has the market share of replicas, Very rare do i see what appears to be genuine watch but then without taking it from there wrist there is now way I would know if it was a high quality replica or the real thing.
                      Well, given the volume of sales by these TDs there must be some out there. And if they are highly accurate then you would never know the difference since you can't examine closely.

                      Interesting that you notice a lot of low quality fakes, where do you see them mostly?
                      No longer active

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Saw this and thought of the thread.

                        https://robbreport.com/style/watch-c...234601315/amp/
                        "The two most powerful warriors are patience and time"

                        "Take care to get what you like
                        or
                        you will be forced to like what you get."

                        WTB:
                        PAM089 / PAM 332 / Skydweller (black) / TC 16610LV

                        Comment


                          #13
                          And this one

                          https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/wh...he-big-three-2
                          "The two most powerful warriors are patience and time"

                          "Take care to get what you like
                          or
                          you will be forced to like what you get."

                          WTB:
                          PAM089 / PAM 332 / Skydweller (black) / TC 16610LV

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Unfortunately for me, I can't quite afford to buy mid to high end gens to wear everyday without worrying about ruining them, so they end up as investment pieces and seldom worn, perhaps only at the odd business or formal events, just because of the likelihood of being called out for wearing a rep amongst people who are likely to own and recognize gens is much higher than in everyday situations. Depending on the person, I would be honest about wearing a rep but sometimes it's not about my reputation, but the company or what I'm representing at the events.

                            So for this reason, I would say watches you see in such events are likely to be gen and I suppose people who wear replicas of expensive watches everyday either are wealthy enough to keep them forever and not have to worry about incurring wear and tear or are wearing a rep. I'm in the latter case where I buy reps that I would dream of wearing everyday in gen but do not wish to scuff the real thing.
                            Last edited by Keishara; 14-03-21, 19:41.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by keishara View Post
                              Unfortunately for me, I can't quite afford to buy mid to high end gens to wear everyday without worrying about ruining them, so they end up as investment pieces and seldom worn, perhaps only at the odd business or formal events, just because of the likelihood of being called out for wearing a rep amongst people who are likely to own and recognize gens is much higher than in everyday situations.

                              So for this reason, I would say watches you see in such events are likely to be gen and I suppose people who wear replicas of expensive watches everyday either are wealthy enough to keep them forever and not have to worry about incurring wear and tear or are wearing a rep. I'm in the latter case where I buy reps that I would dream of wearing everyday in gen but do not wish to scuff the real thing.
                              Nice 458 brother!

                              I am also likely to be around people who recognize gen, and I DID scuff my gens A LOT. I actually am due for a service on ROO and desperately need polish.

                              I ended up selling 5726A because I felt so bad about destroying it, and depreciation (hahahaha that did not age well!)

                              Imagine only wearing super reps that you can afford though? Wouldn't a VSF sub look natural and pass pretty well? Not like anyone is going to check the rehaut under a loupe
                              No longer active

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