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Phone Application to Identify Rolex Replicas

chubbychaser911

Active Member
31/10/19
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It would work on the dial print. There's clear points of reference for dial layout of text for vintage Rolex watches. You could definitely train a neural network to identify improperly aligned dial print. I think it could also pick up on service dials, service hands, crowns, etc. It would glob all of that together and without even letting you know exactly how it was doing it, it could classify the watch. However, a counterfeiter could get his hands on the app and improve his product until he defeats it. These are watches, not cryptocurrency. Once you get to a certain point that you have recreated the original faithfully there's no way to distinguish between it and the factory piece from 1972. Watches are machines. And they're not incredibly complicated machines with respect to the world of machinery. The market for vintage high end pieces is small enough that I don't think it would make financial sense for a factory to try to do it. But let's say there was a market for 1,000,000 vintage Newman Daytona's at $200,000 a piece and those buyers didn't need physical chain of custody provenance with affidavits. You bet your sweet ass there would be perfect copies that could not be distinguished. As it stands there is a market of perhaps 5,000 buyers who would buy at between $100,000 and $17,000,000 and they not only want the watch but they want provenance to go with it.
 

Glaude

Tech Admin
Staff member
Administrator
11/8/17
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You could definitely train a neural network to identify improperly aligned dial print. I think it could also pick up on service dials, service hands, crowns, etc

The network won't be able to identify what is a simple defect from a fake, so especially on vintage where not everything was necessarily precise, you'll have a lot of false positive.
There's also a big big vintage fake market, India & Vietnam leading the way
 

chubbychaser911

Active Member
31/10/19
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Do not underestimate the scary goodness of a neural network. The Vietnam dials are all a little bit wonky. I don't know why they are not able to read gmt master history and figure out which MK dial they're trying to recreate. I'm guessing they did their best on the cliche's with limited knowledge before the internet. The alignment of the characters from line to line, the character size and spacing, they've got problems that would not stand up to scrutiny by a well versed collector. On the wrist, it's impossible to notice. But the size and spacing problems they have will be picked up on by a neural network. The matte color or how sharp the lettering is will not be picked up on because that is a batch to batch problem and Rolex was not able to 100% be consistent. However, the Vietnam cliche's that they've made are off. And that's not difficult to spot.
 

chubbychaser911

Active Member
31/10/19
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Of course, it will be a game of cat and mouse before the Vietnamese or Italians etc catch up and fix their dial print.

The true value of a watch is in the movement. No one will ever invest the money necessary to recreate a 1575 movement. It is currently the last thing which is counterfeit proof. You can get a franked watch with after market dial, replacement case, but it's still got a Rolex heart.

People need to chill out on the collecting angle. Do you really know that that watch was on a soldier's wrist when he took Jane Fonda to bed? You really think that makes it worth another million bucks? Do you think maybe he was lying? Well maybe the hands are service hands or fake too.