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I think this is an excellent point. Maybe we are looking for that 1% of people who could detect a Rep, when we are definitely part of that 1% ourselves. I think the experience that PorscheRacer explains is very interesting: have you ever detected a Rep in another person? And I don't mean, of course, the 'AAA' watches bought on a beach in Florida, but a high quality Rep, NWBIG. Have you ever been talking to someone, or shown you their watch, and been sure it was a Rep? And not because of his looks, not because of his dress, his car or his social status, but because of the watch itself.
Yes I have, but it has to be a specific and very blatant tell. For example a Nautilus with the minute dot by the date window. Or a Milgauss with green AR coating. Or a green dial, bluesy Submariner with shitty and rounded edged lugs (which I literally saw a week ago).
Other than that, you can never be sure, especially because of what pompompurin very rightly said. Even if it looks sketchy you can’t 100% know if that’s an aftermarket replacement gasket/crystal/whatever.
On the “buy the person not the watch” it also has to be a very very obvious tell, meaning a really low income way of life guy wearing a really expensive watch. Even a good bartender could afford a Seamaster (or it could be a grad present from grandpa). And of course any mid-level office guy can afford a Submariner paid in three or four years. It’s probably less than his car. I made the following reasoning in another similar thread:
1. check how much is a VW Golf from an AD
2. over the weekend, check how many Golfs can you spot
3. now just do the maths. Each of those Golfs cost more than a genuine Royal Oak/Daytona/Aquanaut
4. I don’t think all Golf drivers are high-income luxury-lifestyle people
I tend to think all watches are gen unless a blatant flaw is spotted. Hell, sometimes I even think mine is genuine, makes me happy. Then I go back to think I’ve saved myself €10.000 and I’m even happier.