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Effect of Corona Downturn on Value of Popular Gens and Reps

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    Effect of Corona Downturn on Value of Popular Gens and Reps

    Curious as to the community's thoughts on the effect of this market downturn (and/or recession) on the value of genuine, franken and replica watches.

    I think that, assuming no rapid recovery, the value of popular, fashionable models (SS) may drop substantially and not recover to previous highs.

    Corresponding franken watch values should drop too but I would assume that rep costs and value would remain fairly constant.

    Have you seen an increase in listings of luxury watches you've been following and a drop in their listing price?

    #2
    Well Patek are allowing their UK AD's to sell online for the first time EVER . They are allowing 23 different watch lines to be sold online . They are working with the dealers to get some watches from basket to customers next day .

    That's a bit of a change to marketing and sales techniques! What waiting list ? We don't give a fuck whether your a PP type of customer just give us your dough .

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      #3
      Originally posted by jackbrabham View Post
      I think that, assuming no rapid recovery, the value of popular, fashionable models (SS) may drop substantially and not recover to previous highs.
      I wouldn't be so sure. Generally speaking, in times of recession precious metals prices go up. Gold, diamonds, coins should go up. Now, I would love to see gen Hulks and BMW 8s on sale but to be honest, I don't see it happening any time soon. Maybe some local ADs will readjust their "waitlist" policies, but no change in prices is to be expected.

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        #4
        Rep prices are generally not impacted by economic conditions because they are priced so low already compared to gens. We are a miniscule part of their customer base...as long as Mainland Chinese customers buy, they will sell at current prices.

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          #5
          Originally posted by jackbrabham View Post
          I think that, assuming no rapid recovery, the value of popular, fashionable models (SS) may drop substantially and not recover to previous.
          The price of luxury goods is largely recession-proof. There could be a very small temporary dip, but anything more significant would indicate we all have a lot more to worry about than falling watch prices.

          Originally posted by jackbrabham View Post
          Corresponding franken watch values should drop too but I would assume that rep costs and value would remain fairly constant.
          Your Franken prediction sounds like wishful thinking... And I’m with you on what effect this will have on rep prices; although if anything, they may well rise because a) they can, and b) factories will want to recoup the revenue lost during the coronapocalypse.


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            #6
            There’s a quite interesting thread over at VRF about exactly the same.
            Some hope prices go down, other hope that they skyrocket even more due to inflation.

            I don’t know what the consensus is over there, but I believe prices will stay the same.

            Cheers

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              #7
              Would love to see some data on luxury goods price swing during recession period. Very interested. My limited economic knowledge would guess that prices of most things except essentials will at least soften. However, its hard to come to a conclusion without hard data

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                #8
                Good to know I just purchased a noob v3 daytona and was thinking if I should wait or not :P

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                  #9
                  Originally posted by chocolito View Post
                  Well Patek are allowing their UK AD's to sell online for the first time EVER . They are allowing 23 different watch lines to be sold online . They are working with the dealers to get some watches from basket to customers next day .

                  That's a bit of a change to marketing and sales techniques! What waiting list ? We don't give a fuck whether your a PP type of customer just give us your dough .
                  As far as I know, Patek is limited by production capacity - hence the waiting lists. Wondering if there's really so any watches on stock for next day shipment...?

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by YellowFin View Post

                    As far as I know, Patek is limited by production capacity - hence the waiting lists. Wondering if there's really so any watches on stock for next day shipment...?
                    According to the press and various watch publications yes . Just a thought but the PP exclusivity due to limited production capacity could be a marketing ploy , and they in fact have a small warehouse full of watches . Controlling demand by cutting supply etc is a marketing ploy used by a lot of luxury brands . You know Hermes have convinced customers to join waiting lists for exclusive extortionately priced handbags . Supposedly made personally for them by fairies in a magic workshop that only appears once a year . However they actually have a warehouse full of them to the South of Paris .

                    TO QUOTE THE ARTICLE ' Don't expect any stainless steel Nautilus or Aquanauts to be available . However Watches Of Switzerland in the UK has 23 models listed as AVAILABLE for next day delivery ranging from a Twenty-4 for £9,550 to a diamond encrusted Gondolo at £85,070.'

                    However don't shoot the messenger.
                    Last edited by chocolito; 31-03-20, 14:22.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by chocolito View Post

                      According to the press and various watch publications yes . Just a thought but the PP exclusivity due to limited production capacity could be a marketing ploy , and they in fact have a small warehouse full of watches. Controlling demand by cutting supply etc is a marketing ploy used by a lot of luxury brands . You know Hermes have convinced customers to join waiting lists for exclusive extortionately priced handbags . Supposedly made personally for them by fairies in a magic workshop that only appears once a year . However they actually have a warehouse full of them to the South of Paris .

                      TO QUOTE THE ARTICLE ' Don't expect any stainless steel Nautilus or Aquanauts to be available . However Watches Of Switzerland in the UK has 23 models listed as AVAILABLE for next day delivery ranging from a Twenty-4 for £9,550 to a diamond encrusted Gondolo at £85,070.'

                      However don't shoot the messenger.
                      Might be that they have a similar concept as Rolex that all watches are produced at certain runrates and the dealers have to buy whatever PP ships to them. I have to agree with you that cutting suplies is part of the game here. I strongly assume a good customer buying 200k worth of Bulgari jewellery for his wife might get an Aquanaut without discussion or waiting list.

                      Not sure if you're referring to that, but I read "Bringing home the Birkin" some years ago which was actually a very interesting read about business practices in the luxury world.

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                        #12
                        If you're a grey dealer then you are in deep shit. You can already get most steel sport watches 20% cheaper from them than you could a month ago (not incl. Daytona) and prices there will fall further.

                        Otherwise in the world of AD's everything is on hold. Even if they are online, toilet paper is more important than that Tag / Fossil watch and folks aren't buying.

                        It may be true that recession does not impact the price of luxury goods, but a recession sure as hell means less people are buying them - and we're going to be in the worst one we have ever had.
                        Last edited by muiramas; 31-03-20, 15:01.

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                          #13
                          I dunno, it seems to me that rewatch prices keep going up.

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                            #14
                            Prices are absolutely falling off a cliff right now. Watch them continue to fall, like in 2008 when you could find any watch at MSRP. And somehow this economic crisis is much worse. If you’re in the market for a gen hulk, Batman, etc just wait and watch.

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                              #15
                              I sold a genuine BRAND NEW stickered 2020 submariner 116610 for £8250 last week and I feel I got rid at the right time. Prices are dropping quickly! There are some on eBay at £8750 but been on there for a while.


                              Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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