Observations of the replica scene

[XpanzerX]

so i've been into reps for about 4-5 years now, i joined during what i would call a transitional period that in some ways reminds me of where we are today, it was 2017 and TC was officially fresh out of the rep scene. ginault rumors were swirling, I had long heard tales of other makers, Sean, WM9, TW etc, NOOB was the hot commodity on the block with their v6s and the "TC killer" JF16610 was about to debut. i guess where im going with this is things always seem to change, now NOOB is gone and looks like likely VSF as well will join the ranks of TC, WM9, TW etc, for the old dogs i'm curious if this is how its always been, factories and makers popping up for a period of time and then going away and someone else taking there place offering the same likely improved product. i've never, in my short time seen raids like we are today, and multiple factories closing for good. i can recall individual factories getting raided here and there only to pop up again a little while down the road. i understand this hobby is a bit taboo due to the nature of the product and NOOB closing isn't the same as K-Mart going out of business, just curious to get some perspective from folks who have been around longer than i.

 

[Essray]

Fantastic observation and questions. I look forward to seeing some replies. Subscribed


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[mech500]

Nice summary. You’re right, these are unprecedented times with multiple factories closing (presumably) for good.

The international demand for rep Rolex is understandably very high (due to supply issues) and as a result we have seen copy cat factories step up, almost overnight, to try and rep a rep from a discontinued factory model (eg factories like RF, VVSF).


When TC vanished, it took China factories something like 3-4 years to rep TCKH style 3D hands and curved hour markers....so I wonder how long we’ll have to wait and how many revisions (v1, v2, v3 etc) before we get back to the level that VSF were operating at.


I honestly can’t be dealing with going back to buying a 500usd watch only then to send it away for “mandatory mods” like crystal and DW change. ain’t nobody got time for that.

I suspect many Omega watches may never be repped again to the level VSF were producing, since international omega demand is presumably orders of magnitude less than Rolex demand but who know.


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[Rx4Time]

Typically it seems when they get too close to genuine they get slapped down. H factory was king of Panerai and breitling, now years later VSF had mostly filled the gap in high quality Panerai (newer models, not classic ones), breitling there's good makers like gf. My VSF 126610 I cannot find a reasonable tell on it (yes I've read the thread and know the minute tells). I'm curious what maker will fill the noob Daytona vacuum as that is a huge market left open, and will the have the glorious 4130 that noob used. Omega, while never as popular as Rolex, still has a very healthy market for the seamster so someone will eventually fill in the gap. I'd personally prefer a whole new factory name or offshoot (think jf and arf for the higher end pieces) vs a replica of a replica maker.

 

[RedBearrd]

Remember my first rep watch experience about 20 years ago, a family member brought a breitling back from a holiday in Asia. The movement died within a week and I threw it away.

My first serious rep watch index was about 10 years ago in Turkey, a fantasy TH and it still runs after a battery change. I was hooked ever since and started to investigate, noob, JH were there and this forum and its members helped with all the knowledge.

Remember feeling a mind blow moment by hearing of clone movement rlx 3132. The industry has come far since then, VSF has shown high level rep watches and ultimately paid for it by closure.

 

[XpanzerX]

Typically it seems when they get too close to genuine they get slapped down. H factory was king of Panerai and breitling, now years later VSF had mostly filled the gap in high quality Panerai (newer models, not classic ones), breitling there's good makers like gf. My VSF 126610 I cannot find a reasonable tell on it (yes I've read the thread and know the minute tells). I'm curious what maker will fill the noob Daytona vacuum as that is a huge market left open, and will the have the glorious 4130 that noob used. Omega, while never as popular as Rolex, still has a very healthy market for the seamster so someone will eventually fill in the gap. I'd personally prefer a whole new factory name or offshoot (think jf and arf for the higher end pieces) vs a replica of a replica maker.

I agree on the tells/VSF definitely the best modern OOTB rolex I had ever seen from crystal to insert to movement, it also seems you are right in regards to when they get too good they get closed. Another good point made in this thread is the inability and unwillingness to go back to $500+ watches that match the quality of the noob v7


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[XpanzerX]

There has to be more old salts around ?


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[donR]

Interesting discussion, can't say I'm an old salt but I remember purchasing my first replica overseas in my 20s which was in the early 90s, a nice Tag Heur which I wore proudly but I don't even recall what happened to it. I didn't consider whether or not it looked authentic at the time but I've been impressed how far the genuine replicas have come since those old days.

It seems to me at the rate things are going that some of these more "genuine" and high quality replicas may become rarer than the real thing whilst those poorer copies will end up in the garbage.

 

[museguy]

Dear Xpanzer88x

Thank you for starting the thread. I have been having similar feelings.

I am relatively new to replicas and have only been collecting for about two years with a mix of about fifteen watches both DHgate and TD.

The raids, the closing of Noob, and the uncertainty of VSF have "taken the wind out of my sails".

Up until the raids I was buying about one watch a month loved learning about the models and the differences, but the raids raised a level of uncertainty I am finding that I am losing interest. I love watches and have enjoyed RWI, but it feels like the hobby has reached a level of risk/reward that is higher in the risk than the reward at the moment.

I find myself thinking "maybe I should get a VSF Datejust, but will they be as good as before the raids?" and I lose interest at spending $500 unsure of what I will get. It also seems there are fewer new replica models being released and that takes some of the fun out of it for me. I m interested to read other's thoughts.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and starting the thread. Cheers.

 

[John Abel]

I suspect many Omega watches may never be repped again to the level VSF were producing, since international omega demand is presumably orders of magnitude less than Rolex demand but who know

Never say never. If some offer money, someone else will provide.
I would say Omega sales are higher than Rolex. Wishing, dreaming and talking about is not demand.
Also Rolex is far more repped than other brands, so rep demand doesn't follow gen demand or sales. I would say they are somehow inverse, who would rep (or want a rep of) a $500 Seiko?

 

[CJS57]

This new rep market has me unwilling to purchase right now. Will wait until a rep factory leader(s) emerges and provides excellent examples over time. Like it was with VSF and Noob and ARF and others before the raids. I am lucky and got most everything rep I wanted last year and now transitioning to gens anyway.

 

[BOSSK]

Dear Xpanzer88x

Thank you for starting the thread. I have been having similar feelings.

I am relatively new to replicas and have only been collecting for about two years with a mix of about fifteen watches both DHgate and TD.

The raids, the closing of Noob, and the uncertainty of VSF have "taken the wind out of my sails".

Up until the raids I was buying about one watch a month loved learning about the models and the differences, but the raids raised a level of uncertainty I am finding that I am losing interest. I love watches and have enjoyed RWI, but it feels like the hobby has reached a level of risk/reward that is higher in the risk than the reward at the moment.

I find myself thinking "maybe I should get a VSF Datejust, but will they be as good as before the raids?" and I lose interest at spending $500 unsure of what I will get. It also seems there are fewer new replica models being released and that takes some of the fun out of it for me. I m interested to read other's thoughts.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and starting the thread. Cheers.

This sums me up as well. I think it’s the post raid mediocre releases that just don’t appeal to me. Part of the fun of this hobby was always seeing the constant progression of releases. Things have gone backwards or worse - stagnant and half assed.

 

[Burbizia]

Dear Xpanzer88x

Thank you for starting the thread. I have been having similar feelings.

I am relatively new to replicas and have only been collecting for about two years with a mix of about fifteen watches both DHgate and TD.

The raids, the closing of Noob, and the uncertainty of VSF have "taken the wind out of my sails".

Up until the raids I was buying about one watch a month loved learning about the models and the differences, but the raids raised a level of uncertainty I am finding that I am losing interest. I love watches and have enjoyed RWI, but it feels like the hobby has reached a level of risk/reward that is higher in the risk than the reward at the moment.

I find myself thinking "maybe I should get a VSF Datejust, but will they be as good as before the raids?" and I lose interest at spending $500 unsure of what I will get. It also seems there are fewer new replica models being released and that takes some of the fun out of it for me. I m interested to read other's thoughts.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts and starting the thread. Cheers.

I opened a thread in a local sub-section of the forum about 1-2 months ago explaining the same feeling.
100% on your same page.

too risk for my tastes, and too much uncertainty

 

[MarkMarky]

Luckily for me I bought lot of watches in last 2 years and was thinking to give a break in buying new rep watches. I made a list of super reps and bought most of them. Only regret is not to buy rep Noob Daytona. I was ready but wasn't satisfied and wanted to wait for next version and till then bought ARF V2 version. Looks like I'm stuck with that one. Rest all the watches I got them like VSF subs and Omegas.

 

[jcagara08]

Interesting topic indeed, I have also been in the forums for a decade now, big differences between the seamasters back then vs the current line up, my last dance with the rep world would be a perfect if bot a 90% omega man on the fooking moonwatch. Please please please be a reality. It was a heck of a ride.

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[museguy]

This new rep market has me unwilling to purchase right now. Will wait until a rep factory leader(s) emerges and provides excellent examples over time. Like it was with VSF and Noob and ARF and others before the raids. I am lucky and got most everything rep I wanted last year and now transitioning to gens anyway.

Dear CJS57

I am feeling the same. Seems best to just "wait it out".

As you said, "Will wait until a rep factory leader(s) emerges".

Cheers

P.S. Out of curiosity I messaged two TDs about VSF both just responded "can't get VSF".

 

[walla65]

I think there are many of us in this situation ... after the advent of VSF things have changed and a lot ... it's time to stop chasing the thousand versions of a watch ... when we have realized that you can do it well and better or more in one version ... we just have to be patient .... I think we all have some watches or to wear while waiting ... it is different for newcomers with the frenzy of buying ...

 

[museguy]

Hi All,

Maybe it is time for RWI to become "supporter-only".

It seems that much of the recent raid activity is because of the popularity of forums such as Reddit. If RWI was to become a supporter-only forum, it would give TDs a better sense of security and would weed out the "what is the best submariner" crowd. There could still be a forum in front of the supporter-only portal to generate advertising revenue.

Only members would be given portal access to purchase through TDs.

Just a thought.

 

[leo6929]

Yes, but I understand that we the lurkers in the fora are just a tiny fraction of the whole freakin market... so I don't know if that would make a real impact on the great scheme of things...

 

[Peguine]

I for one am a vintage/franken person so i don't really mind the loss of these factories but i understand why others are. Just means its a good time to consolidated and get some of your favourite models modded/frankened!

I personally believe market forces dictate the direction of these factories as well, we will soon see many more factories trying to fill the gap. Hold strong!