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Trying to understand the risks

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    Trying to understand the risks

    Although not technically a Noob to buying reps as I bought several about 10 years ago, I have been away for a while and certainly feel like one right now. Maybe it is because I am 10 years older with 2 growing kids and so I have become more risk adverse, and even more analytical than when I was a younger man :-)

    Here is my situation / question.

    I have spent many hours researching both the watch I want (landed on a IWC 377717), and trying to familiarize myself with the process today. A big thank you to all those who contribute to this site and help make this hobby a little less confusing!

    I am a very detailed person in nature (as you will probably guess from this post), and so I have a need to really understand what exactly the Pro's and Cons are to any decision I make (My wife is not a fan of that in me)

    If I go with one dealer, I pay more (Say $100) but get a lot more peace of mind. If I go with the other I know, and accept,that there will be more risks. The problem is I have no way of quantifying what those risks actually are as I have such limited experience and certainly nothing current.

    To get to it, I guess can anyone help me quantify / get a feel for the risks listed in these questions. Individual experiences I have read from the searches I have done, but I have no way of knowing what the overall risk is.

    1. What is the probability of a watch being seized by US customs? Is this a 1 in a 100 kind of thing? (I am sure this is a common question for other countries, but I am based in the US so hence the specific question)

    2. What is the probability of a watch being lost during shipping?

    3. What is the probability of a watch arriving DOA or needing to be sent back to the dealer within 6 months (ie needing to use the waaranty).

    If someone was to tell me that there is a 1 in 50 chance of these things happening, I would probably look at that as saying you have a 49 in 50 chance of saving / winning $100 and I would take those odds....make sense?

    On the other hand, I might think $100 is a cheap way to have an easier life with less anxiety for the next 3-4 weeks.

    Any help would be appreciated. Again I did try to research this and have found individual cases, and feel like I understand that there IS a risk whatever way I go, just trying to make a more informed choice.

    Cheers!

    #2
    Joined 10 years ago and this is your first post???



    [Link] The Truth About our Reps...

    Comment


      #3
      Wow you really are thorough if it's taken 10 years to make 1 post, seriously tho, no one will be able to give you the specific answers to those questions.

      if your really as anxious and paranoid as you appear may I suggest for the good of your mental health that maybe buying counterfeit goods from a Chinese website might not be for you.

      Comment


        #4
        Dude, you are not building a risk model for a 20 year PPA. It's whether spending $300 on a fake watch or not. Just do it!

        Comment


          #5
          Welcome back to the world of buying reps! If you go with the trusted dealers here several of these problems do get mitigated by a large amount. Up front I think it's wrong to assume that more money equals more safety. Amongst our TDs the cost variation is pretty low from my experience. If you really are seeing a 100 dollar difference, chances are higher that the watch is made by a different factory or a different version (even of the same watch), a different movement or even a different watch bearing the same series name. That extra 100 is probably the difference between a much closer to genuine rep and a less closer to gen rep.

          I can't speak much of U.S customs as I live elsewhere BUT as far as service it's clear you have several options in the U.S. Personally I wouldn't paint this as a large issue.

          Analytically, the forum threads show that there's a much higher chance of successful receipt on international purchase than failure. Enough to be confident about it comfortably.

          And lastly if it still bothers you that much you could always do member to member purchase within the U.S and avoid customs altogether.

          Anyways, enjoy and wear all your watches in good health.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by uklapps View Post
            Although not technically a Noob to buying reps as I bought several about 10 years ago, I have been away for a while and certainly feel like one right now. Maybe it is because I am 10 years older with 2 growing kids and so I have become more risk adverse, and even more analytical than when I was a younger man :-)

            Here is my situation / question.

            I have spent many hours researching both the watch I want (landed on a IWC 377717), and trying to familiarize myself with the process today. A big thank you to all those who contribute to this site and help make this hobby a little less confusing!

            I am a very detailed person in nature (as you will probably guess from this post), and so I have a need to really understand what exactly the Pro's and Cons are to any decision I make (My wife is not a fan of that in me)

            If I go with one dealer, I pay more (Say $100) but get a lot more peace of mind. If I go with the other I know, and accept,that there will be more risks. The problem is I have no way of quantifying what those risks actually are as I have such limited experience and certainly nothing current.

            To get to it, I guess can anyone help me quantify / get a feel for the risks listed in these questions. Individual experiences I have read from the searches I have done, but I have no way of knowing what the overall risk is.

            1. What is the probability of a watch being seized by US customs? Is this a 1 in a 100 kind of thing? (I am sure this is a common question for other countries, but I am based in the US so hence the specific question)

            2. What is the probability of a watch being lost during shipping?

            3. What is the probability of a watch arriving DOA or needing to be sent back to the dealer within 6 months (ie needing to use the waaranty).

            If someone was to tell me that there is a 1 in 50 chance of these things happening, I would probably look at that as saying you have a 49 in 50 chance of saving / winning $100 and I would take those odds....make sense?

            On the other hand, I might think $100 is a cheap way to have an easier life with less anxiety for the next 3-4 weeks.

            Any help would be appreciated. Again I did try to research this and have found individual cases, and feel like I understand that there IS a risk whatever way I go, just trying to make a more informed choice.

            Cheers!
            Since nobody else is being helpful I will answer your questions. They are good questions. You are basically asking if you should buy wholesale price without the warranty and guarantee of delivery, or is it worth an extra $100 to have warranty and guaranteed delivery through customs.

            1. I don't know this as I am Canadian, you'll have to wait to hear from your fellowman. This would be the main reason I would pay the extra $100.

            2. I would say vert low, this would not be a factor in my choosing wholesale or not.

            3. The chances of this are higher, definitely. However, it is generally accepted that it is much easier and safer to have your watch repaired locally out of pocket than to take the risk sending it back to China. For this reason I would not allow repair warranty to influence my decision to pay retail. I would pay wholesale and then use the savings towards repair if it were needed.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by bobandshawn View Post
              Joined 10 years ago and this is your first post???
              Thought this was flame free :-)

              I used to be on another forum, switched to this one as I have found it much more informative.

              Hope that answers your question / comment?

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Spitfire63 View Post
                Wow you really are thorough if it's taken 10 years to make 1 post, seriously tho, no one will be able to give you the specific answers to those questions.

                if your really as anxious and paranoid as you appear may I suggest for the good of your mental health that maybe buying counterfeit goods from a Chinese website might not be for you.
                As mentioned in my reply to the other similar post, first time posting on this site, not posting to Rep forums Have VIP/Elite status on the other one, but have found this site more useful (so far) this time around as I find a renewed interest in the hobby. Again, maybe I misunderstood the 'no flame' title to this thread?


                Why did you take my post as anxious / paranoid? Just a dude trying to understand the risks. As I have purchased about 10 reps in the past I am pretty aware, just wanted to get a better understanding and as I couldn't find an answer to what I thought were pretty straight forward and common concerns for anyone who is new to the hobby, and this might be of help to them as well.

                Not trying to build my post count here, as obviously that seems to be important to some so I will address the other comments

                Sure, it is a $300 vs $400 decision, that can be a lot for some, especially if they are starting out. For me it is I hate wasting money if I don't need to and would prefer to spend it on Bourbon

                @ethersphynx - Appreciate the welcome and the feedback

                @Maron - Thanks for taking the time to respond and for helping me (and probably others) who are weighing up the difference. I think you summarize it pretty well, and will probably lean to saving the money and use it for a repair (if needed) and service.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by uklapps View Post

                  Thought this was flame free :-)
                  It is - what's your point?




                  [Link] The Truth About our Reps...

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by ethersphynx View Post
                    Amongst our TDs the cost variation is pretty low from my experience. If you really are seeing a 100 dollar difference, chances are higher that the watch is made by a different factory or a different version (even of the same watch), a different movement or even a different watch bearing the same series name. That extra 100 is probably the difference between a much closer to genuine rep and a less closer to gen rep.
                    Just to comment on this. It is the same version of the same watch from the same factory (so identical) and for all intent and purpose it is the same TD and sales experience, just a different pricing option. As Maron more eloquently put it, It is the difference between having guaranteed delivery and warranty vs Not

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by uklapps View Post

                      Just to comment on this. It is the same version of the same watch from the same factory (so identical) and for all intent and purpose it is the same TD and sales experience, just a different pricing option. As Maron more eloquently put it, It is the difference between having guaranteed delivery and warranty vs Not
                      I know Canadians that only buy wholesale prices for these exact reasons, and customs in Canada does not care about replica watches.

                      You should find out if US customs is the same for you guys in that regard. If so, you could certainly entertain the idea of ordering wholesale.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        So, you are wondering if the risk of ordering from Watch Outlet instead of Puretime is worth it, is that the question? The real question is: how easy are US customs with replica watches?

                        The answer seems to have changed recently. I'm no expert (based in EU, sorry), but I recall a post by Hor-Fan mentioning a very recent change in US import regulations that could in fact affect replica watches.

                        My choice would be to go for the regular price. I have been living in UK for some time and UK customs couldn't care less about counterfeit items coming from China, and still went for the regular option as it also covers any damages on the watch, defective parts, DOA (dead on arrival), etc. Even if customs are fine, a fake watch is a fake watch, and there are lots of things that could not work once you receive it.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Yes, there is (supposedly) a new, stepped up inspection regime for parcels from China starting Jan. 1 for U.S. Customs. Personally, I’d pay the full fare price just for the
                          “ customs seizure replacement” insurance and piece of mind.
                          It all depends on your tolerance for risk. Worst case scenario, you save $100 on the purchase, the watch gets seized and you get nothing for your money VS pay the extra $100 and eventually get your watch even if it gets seized.

                          RWI SUPPORTER

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Hello uklapps !

                            Good to meet you!

                            Customs risk historically for the US has always been quite low. Unsure of how any new laws/rules will impact that going forward.

                            You could always try WBK-------> https://forum.replica-watch.info/forum/wbk-time

                            He is US based and ships from the US.

                            Although he generally lists lower price watches, he does take requests and may be able to find what you are looking for...

                            Comment


                              #15
                              uklapps Can you give me 10 years to ponder this and get back to you.

                              Comment

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